Astros Playoff Odds: After the Weekend Action
by DyingQuail
on Sep 8, 2008 10:04 AM CDT
Three days, three games, that's what the weekend had on tap for the Astros and their playoff rivals. So what's new on the playoff landscape? This is especially relevant since the Astros are hanging onto playoff hopes by a proverbial thread.
We're a half game better in the WC standings at 6 games back, but our elimination number has dropped to 14 on the strength on an Astros loss and two Brewers win over the weekend. With 18 games left on the slate, the Astros are still not the masters of their own destinies -- never a comfortable position. I'll say more about the Pirates in tonights game thread, but I thought it'd be good fodder to see the play-off odds even after we dropped two in the elimination number column, but half a game in the standings.
Here's what I reported the other day:
| Report | NL Central Champs | NL Wild Card | Playoffs |
| BPro Playoff Odds | .01065% | 1.19726% | 1.20791% |
| BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds | .00893% | 1.0474% | 1.05633% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds | .06689% | 1.0474% | 1.05633% |
| Cool Standings Odds | >1% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
Here's how they stand after the dust settled on yesterday's action:
| Report | NL Central Champs | NL Wild Card | Playoffs |
| BPro Playoff Odds | .02716% | 1.57815% | 1.60531% |
| BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds | .002238% | 1.38954% | 1.41191% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds | .11320% | 3.28995% | 3.40315% |
| Cool Standings Odds | >1% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
Slight improvements all across the board, especially in the schedule adjusted category. The qualifiers of course are the following:
- We are down Ty Wigginton for up to ten days.
- Wandy could easily be out for the season.
- Backe (a month ago I would have considered his absence an asset, not a liability) could also be out for the rest of the season.
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Did you really just use the phrase...
…. “big guy’s hole?”
At least you didn’t say, “can certainly fill in the big guy’s hole adequately.”
Not that there would be anything wrong with that.
Hi, my name is Rich and I'm an Astroholic.
by Austin Astroholic on Sep 8, 2008 12:38 PM CDT 0 recs
Esssshhhhh
I should have thought about how that read, it’s staying now though.
Good Seinfield reference.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 8, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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Ask me after the Pirates series what I think our playoff hopes are. :p
Anyway, the defensive configuration of Abercrombie/Bourn/Pence is definitely ++.
At least we’ll have that.
by entropic soul on Sep 8, 2008 2:31 PM CDT 0 recs
Wigginton
Was actually flawless in LF prior to the hammy — according to RZR 1.000, with 9 out of zone outs — but Abercrombie does possess more defensive tools in the outfield than Wigginton.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 8, 2008 2:42 PM CDT
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With a righty
on the mound tonight, I’m assuming we’ll get an Erstad/Bourn/Pence OF. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coop continue to go with Abercrombie against lefties, though. Wiggy’s been a monster for the last month or so. We’re going to miss that power. Time for Lance to go all Lance from May on us. He carried us down the stretch two years ago when we almost caught the Cards at the wire.
by littlevisigoth on Sep 8, 2008 2:52 PM CDT 0 recs
SO TRUE
It’s time for Lance to step up and carry this team again. He’s had a three month break, so he should be well rested for the task.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 8, 2008 3:13 PM CDT
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Explain the probabilities to me.
Do any of these forecasterss figure likelihood to win each future game individually and projected final records and then compare that to expected win percentages by others teams in the competition?. or is it striclty a slight fudge factor for home vs away game?
The Astros schedule seems ideal for putting together a fantastic finish. The Cubs on the other hand have a killer schedule. The Cubs saving grace is the big lead over everyone.
Brewers and Phillies (and Mets And Cardianls ) I am unsure about
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 8, 2008 6:31 PM CDT 0 recs
If I remember correctly
They play the rest of the season 100 (or maybe 1000 times) on the computers and get the stats from that…
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Sep 8, 2008 6:48 PM CDT
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Who are you gonna trust
A couple of computers? or a popcorn-eating Astros fan?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on
Sep 8, 2008 6:53 PM CDT
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When I do a totally unscientfic seat of the pants review of remaining series
I have the Cubs and Mets winnning their respective divisions.
But the Wild Card is a toss up between Philies, Brewers and Astros.
Cardinals fade.
I’m sure I have an Astros fan bias. Do any of these models give expected finishes and records?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on
Sep 8, 2008 6:51 PM CDT
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
97 | 64 | .602 | 0 | Lost 4 |
|
Milwaukee
|
90 | 72 | .555 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
86 | 75 | .534 | 11 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
86 | 76 | .530 | 11.5 | Won 6 |
|
Cincinnati
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 23.5 | Lost 5 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
67 | 95 | .413 | 30.5 | Won 1 |
(updated 1.8.2009 at 4:10 AM CST)
