The Crawfish Boxes: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Shockey's Tweets Offer Insight Into Kevin Houser Release


Astros Playoff Odds: After the Weekend Action

Three days, three games, that's what the weekend had on tap for the Astros and their playoff rivals.  So what's new on the playoff landscape? This is especially relevant since the Astros are hanging onto playoff hopes by a proverbial thread.

We're a half game better in the WC standings at 6 games back, but our elimination number has dropped to 14 on the strength on an Astros loss and two Brewers win over the weekend.  With 18 games left on the slate, the Astros are still not the masters of their own destinies -- never a comfortable position.  I'll say more about the Pirates in tonights game thread, but I thought it'd be good fodder to see the play-off odds even after we dropped two in the elimination number column, but half a game in the standings.

Here's what I reported the other day:

Report NL Central Champs NL Wild Card Playoffs
BPro Playoff Odds .01065% 1.19726% 1.20791%
BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds .00893% 1.0474% 1.05633%
BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds .06689% 1.0474% 1.05633%
Cool Standings Odds >1% 1.7% 1.7%

Here's how they stand after the dust settled on yesterday's action:

 

Report NL Central Champs NL Wild Card Playoffs
BPro Playoff Odds .02716% 1.57815% 1.60531%
BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds .002238% 1.38954% 1.41191%
BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds .11320% 3.28995% 3.40315%
Cool Standings Odds >1% 1.7% 1.8%

Slight improvements all across the board, especially in the schedule adjusted category.  The qualifiers of course are the following:

  1. We are down Ty Wigginton for up to ten days.
  2. Wandy could easily be out for the season.
  3. Backe (a month ago I would have considered his absence an asset, not a liability) could also be out for the rest of the season.
Of course, all of this could be mitigated by a stunning performance tonight from Arais and Darin Erstad catching a little bit of fire himself.  If there's one thing we've learned since Lee's absence from the line-up, is that streakiness in small sample sizes can certainly fill in adequately for the big guy's hole.  I will, however, cross my fingers that Abercrombie does not become the defacto LF in Wiggy's absence.

My question to you guys stems from the fact that the statistics suggest that hope not only abounds, but our probability of reaching October baseball has increased:
Poll
The numbers can't take into account the loss of Ty, Wandy, and Brandon, though. In that context, are the Astros looking at better or worse playoff odds than Friday's outlook?
Better
11 votes
Worse
17 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 11 comments | Share on Facebook Digg!

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Did you really just use the phrase...

…. “big guy’s hole?”

At least you didn’t say, “can certainly fill in the big guy’s hole adequately.”

Not that there would be anything wrong with that.

Hi, my name is Rich and I'm an Astroholic.

by Austin Astroholic on Sep 8, 2008 12:38 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Esssshhhhh

I should have thought about how that read, it’s staying now though.

Good Seinfield reference.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Sep 8, 2008 12:52 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ask me after the Pirates series what I think our playoff hopes are. :p

Anyway, the defensive configuration of Abercrombie/Bourn/Pence is definitely ++.
At least we’ll have that.

by entropic soul on Sep 8, 2008 2:31 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wigginton

Was actually flawless in LF prior to the hammy — according to RZR 1.000, with 9 out of zone outs — but Abercrombie does possess more defensive tools in the outfield than Wigginton.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Sep 8, 2008 2:42 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With a righty

on the mound tonight, I’m assuming we’ll get an Erstad/Bourn/Pence OF. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coop continue to go with Abercrombie against lefties, though. Wiggy’s been a monster for the last month or so. We’re going to miss that power. Time for Lance to go all Lance from May on us. He carried us down the stretch two years ago when we almost caught the Cards at the wire.

by littlevisigoth on Sep 8, 2008 2:52 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

SO TRUE

It’s time for Lance to step up and carry this team again. He’s had a three month break, so he should be well rested for the task.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Sep 8, 2008 3:13 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Explain the probabilities to me.

Do any of these forecasterss figure likelihood to win each future game individually and projected final records and then compare that to expected win percentages by others teams in the competition?. or is it striclty a slight fudge factor for home vs away game?

The Astros schedule seems ideal for putting together a fantastic finish. The Cubs on the other hand have a killer schedule. The Cubs saving grace is the big lead over everyone.

Brewers and Phillies (and Mets And Cardianls ) I am unsure about

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 8, 2008 6:31 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If I remember correctly

They play the rest of the season 100 (or maybe 1000 times) on the computers and get the stats from that…

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Sep 8, 2008 6:48 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Who are you gonna trust

A couple of computers? or a popcorn-eating Astros fan?

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 8, 2008 6:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When I do a totally unscientfic seat of the pants review of remaining series

I have the Cubs and Mets winnning their respective divisions.

But the Wild Card is a toss up between Philies, Brewers and Astros.

Cardinals fade.

I’m sure I have an Astros fan bias. Do any of these models give expected finishes and records?

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 8, 2008 6:51 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the Crawfishboxes, the SBNation blog for the Houston Astros.
Start posting about the Astros »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
BA posts mid-season top 50 Prospect Rankings & 'Stros have 2.
Small
Jose Altuve
Astros_small
time for a change
Oingo_boingo-only_a_lad_small
Hunter Pence, All-Star (For Reals!)
Small
Jay Austin
Baseball_-_roy_oswalt_small
Astros Play Day Game Against Padres
Astroandyavatar_small
International Free Agent Signings
Houston_texans_small
Am I the only one...
Small
Special thanks goes to
Astroandyavatar_small
Astros Uniforms - Vote your favorite

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

THE CRAWFISH BOXES GETS SOCIAL

Picture_88_medium The Crawfish Boxes on Facebook

Picture_89_medium The Crawfish Boxes on Twitter

Current Series

Nationals lead the series 1-0

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 47 40 .540 0 Won 1
Milwaukee 44 41 .517 2 Lost 1
Chicago 41 41 .500 3.5 Lost 2
Houston 41 42 .493 4 Won 2
Cincinnati 41 42 .493 4 Lost 1
Pittsburgh 38 47 .447 8 Lost 1

(updated 7.9.2009 at 3:46 PM CDT)


Humble Blog Managers

Urbanshocker_small HighLeveragePerformer

Lovelance_small DyingQuail

Editors

Nsapcs13_large_small clack

Fbod6_small farm_stros