Randy Wolf is Projected to be a Type B Free Agent
by DyingQuail
on Sep 4, 2008 3:14 PM CDT
Perhaps on the strength of Last Night's performance and the fact that he got to play a lot of games at Pet Co., Randy Wolf is projected to be a Type B FA. This means that if we offer him arbitration and he walks away (something highly likely given his preference for the West Coast), we'd net a compensation pick between the first and second round. This could be huge for the Astros if we find another Ross Seaton type character and offer him the moon and the sun again. I was highly critical of Ed Wade for this trade, because I thought that there was no way in HELL that he could be a Type B FA, but again: Wade scores another point and I continue to insert my foot in my mouth -- something I'll gladly continue doing if it means the Astros just keep improving.
Although I just credited Pet Co. with his ability to sneak into the Type B category, his numbers with the Astros have also helped him a long greatly:
After last night's start, Wolf lowered his DIPS ERA to 4.81 (a difference of only .05 and difference of .34 from his overall ERA of 4.47), which means that Astros fans should be thrilled to see him on the Type B FA list and also thank Elias for their non-sensical system of evaluation.
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sort of OT
but bleedcubbieblue has a picture of the scoreboard from Wolf’s complete game shutout last night if someone wants to grab it.
by ol Pete on Sep 4, 2008 5:44 PM CDT 0 recs
On the issue of Wolf going to the west coast...
An article posted today on astros.com has Wolf claiming he’s changed his focus. He doesn’t care to pitch on the West Coast anymore. He wants to pitch for a contender, where ever that is. So, that pretty much all but guarantees he won’t accept arbitration with Houston unless we actually do get to the post season. Even then it seems unlikely.
Article here:
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080904&content_id=3419918&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou
by entropic soul on Sep 4, 2008 6:28 PM CDT 0 recs
loretta type B too
again. nobody wanted him last year. wonder if we’ll risk offering him arbitration. I tend to say no, given our glut of middle IF utility types.
Anybody know why Ryan Dempster wasn’t listed? I thought he was FA after the season. Doesn’t qualify in the rankings for some reason?
Don’t think any of our other free agents made the cut.
by lnewcomer on Sep 4, 2008 8:27 PM CDT 0 recs
I'd take Loretta over any of our utility IF's
putting him and Blum on basically the same level… I don’t expect Castillo or Newhan to be on the “big club” next season.
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Sep 4, 2008 8:42 PM CDT
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Agree
I still can’t for the life of me figure out why Jose Castillo is on this team. Depth in September maybe? I don’t see him sticking around. I don’t know what his contract is worth, though.
by entropic soul on
Sep 4, 2008 10:33 PM CDT
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I have my doubts that the Astros bring Loretta back...
I could be wrong; this is just an guy feeling. (And I like Loretta…I don’t have a problem with keeping him on the team.) This is based on looking at the Astros’ overall budget situation, and realizing that Wade will be under pressure to cut salaries somewhere. Utility infielder is one of the places where you can get a utility infielder for less than $1 million, and Wade already has Blum signed above that figure. Wade was ready to forego Loretta last year, and didn’t expect him to accept arbitration. Bringing in Castillo indicates to me that Wade may be looking around at possible cheap utility infielders and believed that Castillo might turn out to be a replacement. (Of course, Castillo may play himself out of the picture, but truthfully he hasn’t gotten enough playing time to make a judgement, IMO.) Newhan could be a cheap replacment too, even though I doubt that Newhan can keep up his recent offensive performance next season. In most cases, who you sign as a utility infielder isn’t a big deal…except in the Astros’ case, Matsui has not shown the ability to stay off the DL.
by clack on
Sep 5, 2008 8:11 AM CDT
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I think I would probably agree with you
but I can see the team preferring Newhan, since I would assume he would be cheaper. So far, I think I’ve only seen Newhan play at 2b. Does he have the flexibility to play 3b or SS (or at least stand out there with a glove)?
by lnewcomer on
Sep 4, 2008 10:40 PM CDT
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Newhan has never really been a good player in the MLB
except for his short stint this season with the Astros… there is no reason to think the player he has been for the last couple weeks is what he actually is
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Sep 5, 2008 5:59 AM CDT
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Didn't I read Newhan batted over .300 with Baltimore?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on
Sep 5, 2008 7:48 AM CDT
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From Wikipedia
In 2004 with the Orioles, [David Newhan] had 42 hits through 100 at bats, and were it not for a pinch hit appearance in which he flied out he would have had a 21-game hit streak. He finished with a .311 batting average, seven triples (seventh in the AL), eight home runs, 54 RBI, and 11 stolen bases in 12 attempts. He hit .343 with runners in scoring position, and .400 with runners in scoring position and 2 out. One of his more exciting hits was an inside-the-park home run off Pedro MartÃnez with a runner on base on a drive off the center field wall on July 20 against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.5
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on
Sep 5, 2008 7:52 AM CDT
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More from Wikipedia
Newhan hits lefty and righty pitchers equally well.8 His swing is compact and level, mostly generating line drives and groundballs. He has batted from every position in the batting order, but has mostly been batted second through 2006.
Newhan plays all infield positions except shortstop, as well as all outfield positions. Through 2006 he played in 4 games at first base (1 start), 28 games at second base (14 starts), 28 games at third base (16 starts), 56 games in left field (50 starts), 51 games in center (47 starts), and 62 games in right (36 starts). His range is average both in the infield and outfield, and he throws accurately.6
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on
Sep 5, 2008 8:05 AM CDT
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Did David Newhan's family write that Wikipedia entry? :)
While I am skeptical of Newhan on baseball grounds, from a sentimental standpoint it would be a nice story if he played at the ML level nextt year. His dad was an esteemed baseball writer in LA, who is now retired. What I have read indicates that he follows his son’s ML games closely, sometimes traveling to watch the Astros. So, I’m sure it would be a treat for him to see his son play a full season in the majors…and that has to be particularly gratifying for someone who has been a baseball writer all of their life.
by clack on
Sep 5, 2008 10:58 AM CDT
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It's probably too hard to calculate
The guy reverse engineered the formulas by trail and error, but they work by player types and two or three year averages. Since Dempster doesn’t fit nicely in a category, it’s probably too hard to say whether he’d be A or B.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 4, 2008 9:31 PM CDT
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With respect ot Dempster, I would think he is hard to rank.
He was a relief pitcher last year and a starter this year. The basis for rankings are quite different for the two categories, and both years are taken into account for the Elias rating. So, maybe that is a long way of saying, I agree with you.
by clack on
Sep 4, 2008 9:36 PM CDT
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in the guy's first column
he says that the position is determined by the most appearances over the course of two years. he was a reliever all of last year, so he probably will be in the relievers category. it’ll be interesting to see whether or not he makes the cut as a reliever, since there are a lot of counting stats included (although i’m not sure which ones). i’m sure his ERA will help no matter what category he’s listed under.
by littlevisigoth on
Sep 5, 2008 8:41 AM CDT
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I'm not surprised that Wolf is a Type B Free Agent.
Padres’ Asst. GM Depodesta said in his blog that the Padres’ believed that Wolf was on track to be a Type B FA when he was traded. (In fact, he said the bonus savings from not having to pay for a supplemental 1st round pick was part of the Padres’ decision making calculus.) The ML teams are capable of tracking likely Type A or Type B rankings much better than the blogger in question.
by clack on Sep 4, 2008 9:40 PM CDT 0 recs
BTW, did you notice that Wolf is awfully close to a Type A ranking?
Assuming this blogger’s formulas are approximately correct, is it possible that Wolf could become a Type A if he finishes this season with a flourish? Depodesta said in his blog at mid-season that there was only an outside possiblity of Wolf becoming a Type A. However, this guy’s calculations show Wolf as the highest rated Type B pitcher. And Wolf’s numbers are less than 1% lower than Adam Wainwright, the lowest rated Type A pitcher.
I didn’t see any ratings for relief pitcher. I wonder if Byrdak might qualify as a Type B FA?
by clack on Sep 4, 2008 9:52 PM CDT 0 recs
interesting catch
that would be quite a coup, but not knowing anything about the formulas, it’s hard to guess. Also, as noted about this guy’s numbers are reverse engineered, so the degree of certainty when we’re getting down to those fine distinctions is probably less precise. Anyway, that would be something to root for as the season wraps up.
Wonder if his formula included Wolf’s CG SO last night?
by lnewcomer on
Sep 4, 2008 10:37 PM CDT
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Wainright is a type B
But Wolf is the second highest type B.
by entropic soul on
Sep 4, 2008 11:01 PM CDT
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you're right...I read the wrong line for Waingwright...
But it doesn’t change my point about Wolf….he is 1.1% less than John Maine who is the lowest rated Type A pitcher. That’s according to this guy’s numbers. Also, could be he be right that Oliver Perez is a Type A starting pitcher? I had thought about Perez as a “middle tier” alternative Free Agent pitcher for the Astros, but if he is a Type A pitcher, that option becomes less attractive.
by clack on
Sep 5, 2008 7:49 AM CDT
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I saw that he was at the top of the list, but not how close he was
The cynic in me wants to question the formula the guy is using, but hell, maybe a 4.7 ERA with decent strike out numbers is what puts you in the top 1/3 of SP?
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 5, 2008 12:51 AM CDT
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Looking at the blog's links...
he says the formula for starting pitchers is based on:
Total Games (Games Started + 0.5*Games Relieved), IP, Wins, Winning Pct., ERA, K’sTotal Games (Games Started + 0.5*Games Relieved), IP, Wins, Winning Pct., ERA, K’s
He also says that the player’s final rating is based on adding points given for his rankings (e.g., 1st, 2d, 3d, etc.) together under each category….kind of like the way fantasy baseball produces scores. (This would mean perhaps that it might not be that hard for a player like Wolf to advance, depending on how close he might be to a player ranked just above him in a category.) Another reaction I have is that it mgiht be easy to think you have produced the correct reverse engineered number at a position when you really have not gotten the formula correct.
by clack on
Sep 5, 2008 8:02 AM CDT
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The formula came from a Keith Law blog entry in 2006.
MLBTradeRumors has essentially confirmed that it’s the formulas that they use. Thought the blog article is from 2006, so there could have been some tweaking since then.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 5, 2008 8:43 AM CDT
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picking of nits
you get a 1st round supplemental pick for Type B free agents. they come right after all the supplemental picks for Type A free agents that clubs get along with the 1st or 2nd round pick from the club that signed said Type A free agent.
we got Seaton with the pick we received for not signing Dietrich last year. we’ll get another such pick this year for not signing Davidson.
it’s confusing, so i’m not going to call myself the final authority, but i believe that is correct (have myself a pdf copy of the CBA, which you can download from the player’s association… it helps in trying to understand some of these convoluted rules).
by littlevisigoth on Sep 5, 2008 8:49 AM CDT 0 recs
You're right, I am wrong.
I switched the old Type C compensation with the Type B. Thanks for catching that.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 5, 2008 9:14 AM CDT
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the astros got a supplemental pick for Type B FA Trevor Miller..
by clack on
Sep 5, 2008 11:01 AM CDT
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Who will be so good
If he can stay relatively healthy. I’d love to know what his high school IP and pitch counts were.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 5, 2008 3:10 PM CDT
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Tri-City stats
3-3, with a 3.99 ERA over 13 starts, which is mostly irrelavant, but 64K/10BB in 49.2 IP, with a 1.09 WHIP, which is certainly very encouraging.
Does he have any health issues, or is that just a blanket statement for all prospects?
by littlevisigoth on
Sep 5, 2008 4:14 PM CDT
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HIs High-A stats were miserable, but he had to just be way over matched against a bunch of college hitters
It was just a blanket statement for a 17 year old pitching prospect.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 5, 2008 4:59 PM CDT
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On an unrelated note:
Brewers lost Thursday. 6 games back now. Woot.
by entropic soul on Sep 5, 2008 10:03 AM CDT 0 recs
Woot. Woot.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Sep 5, 2008 12:09 PM CDT
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
97 | 64 | .602 | 0 | Lost 4 |
|
Milwaukee
|
90 | 72 | .555 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
86 | 75 | .534 | 11 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
86 | 76 | .530 | 11.5 | Won 6 |
|
Cincinnati
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 23.5 | Lost 5 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
67 | 95 | .413 | 30.5 | Won 1 |
(updated 1.8.2009 at 10:11 AM CST)
