The Crawfish Boxes: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: Smoltz leaning toward signing with Red Sox Bar-right-arrows



spread the word

Astros Defy Experts' Expectations and a look ahead to the Off Season

As the smell of imitation cheese and eight dollar beer wafts out of The Juice Box, it is safe to say that our Astros were better than we could have ever hoped for. 86-75 is a nice record, especially considering the caveats. What IF ol' Bud didn't relocate the most important games of the season to Milwaukee? What IF Oscar Villareal had pitched like a major leaguer instead of a pre-spectacled Rick Vaughn? Bourn and Towles were sent out there like a rookie QB in the NFL- to learn on the fly and take the lumps that came with that kind of education. Still, a lot went our way, and for that we should be pleased. Did this team play up to their potential? Or did we get lucky and have a ton of guys play above their heads?

 

Star-divide

A look around the internet will tell you that those "in the know" had just about no confidence that this team was going to be competitive this year. Take a look at various prognostications about our 2008 chances:

Sports Illustrated's predicted record: 74-88

Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): 72-90 (last place in the NL Central to boot)

My Preseason Prediction: 82-80, 3rd place NL Central

What can we learn from this, besides the fact that I obviously have a savvier baseball brain than the writers at SI or Baseball Prospectus' computers? Baseball is becoming more and more difficult to predict for one. There may not be a salary cap, but when the team with the second highest payroll (Detroit) can finish in last place, and a Tampa Bay team whose payroll is roughly the equivalent of the left side of the Yankees infield can win their division, teams seemed to have figured out ways to maximize the dollars that they do have.

While this is true for the league as a whole, it is not true for the Astros. Woody Williams is collecting a paycheck after not pitching a single regular season inning. The aforementioned Villareal was demoted at the halfway point, but was getting paid more Wandy Rodriguez to do whatever below average relief pitchers do when they aren't employed. Miguel Tejada played above average defense and was a huge improvement over Adam Everett at the plate, but his OPS+ of 91 was not only below league average, but below expectations of Astros brass and fans alike. Ultimately though, it was the belief that this team could win, and that it should be given the chance to do despite the costs, that turned the year around. I don't think anyone can honestly say Drayton McLane is going to stop spending money on the club, whether the money is spent wisely or not is another story altogether.

The last assessment that I'll make about the Astros' season and their going above and beyond the expert's predictions, is that whether you think the team is one guy away from a post season spot, or if you're sure that the team's 2008 success was a mirage, this is going to be a defining off season for the team. Last off season was important too, don't get me wrong. Ed Wade turned over a good portion of the roster, we said goodbye to Craig, and Lance was not pleased about losing good buddy Chris Burke and others. Wade managed to come out of it all looking pretty good, despite concern that he hasn't done much to improve the farm system. What do we have to look forward to?:

  • Does Ben Sheets become an Astro? If not, is there an attractive alternative in the FA starting-pitching market?
  • What happens with Randy Wolf? Does he get a legitimate offer to stay? Or is he offered the arbitration minimum that will allow the Astros to collect a compensation pick in the event he doesn't re-sign?
  • How much will Michael Bourn and JR Towles improve? Both should be playing winter ball somewhere in a Caribbean nation. Towles showed that he can be a more than legitimate hitter on the AAA level, while Bourn played the kind of defense that makes his deficiencies at the plate even more apparent. One old baseball axiom that is not false is that most good teams are solid up the middle. Half our up the middle will enter only their second full major league season in 2009. If the front office goes for broke and signs a couple substantial free agents this off season, will Bourn and Towles be given the chance to continue learning on the major league level?
  • Alberto Arias and Felipe Paulino are the most major league ready arms at the high levels of our farm system. Arias was used sparingly this year with mixed results while Paulino never got into a game. Their development is crucial. A couple young, inexpensive arms would go a long ways to improving the club in 2009. Paulino is rehabbing his arm, with hopes of pitching in Venezuela this winter.
  • What will happen with our farmhands? Brian Bogusevic OPS'ed 1.003 in 124 AB's in AA this year. The ex-hurler is making a go of it as a batter, and so far so good. He is Rule V eligible though, so if the Astros think he's going to be of value they had better protect him before another club gets their chance to snatch him up. First round pick from this year, Jason Castro, will be playing in the Hawaiian Winter League for the North Shore Honu. He had limited playing time in low A ball, but managed to get on base at a tidy clip of .383. Not enough AB's to get a good picture of what he's capable of, but for a farm system as barren as ours, any good news needs to be celebrated.

What aspect of our off season most interests ya'll? Any story ideas for the esteemed writers of TCB? Don't be shy, let us know. Wait. Scratch that. After nearly two months of being a writer here, I learned pretty quick that nobody around here is going to hold back their opinions, or mince words. That makes contributing to the discussion even much better. Nobody likes to be agreed with all the time. Besides, I'm pretty damn sure I'll write some thing this winter that will boggle your collective minds.

I want to thank everyone for your comments and your time spent reading all of our articles. I'm excited for the off season- not only do we all get to follow the exploits of a competitive club, but we have a GM that will isn't shy to make headlines. Recipe for a fun few months.

0 recs | Comment 10 comments | Digg!

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Drayton McLane

Drayton McLane deserves some kudos for sticking with the team and adding players when he was being laughed at and poor-mouthed. He believed in the team when virtually everybody else had written them off.

About the time he added players , Braves dumped payers. Braves had a patheitc finish, Astros excited us.

The Hurricane Ike fiasco is partially his fault and I would not allowed the team to play so soon after the hurricane (anywhere) (I don’t think), but his faith in the team seems real and not just empty statements to keep fans coming to the park (as many surmised) .

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 30, 2008 10:22 PM CDT   0 recs

I'm still not convinced

That anyone could see this coming.

Drayton deserves credit for sticking with his guys, but I’m not convinced of the need for kudos on that part. The almighty dollar is his chief motivation for everything…look no further than Miller Park for that reality.

I’ll give Drayton his kudos when he demonstrates the desire to truly ensure a post-season berth for the Astros by signing the check for a top-tier pitcher and next years draft class.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Oct 1, 2008 2:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Syncretism

I agree with Joe . . . and with Dying Quail.

Witness 2007 for evidence that Drayton sticks with his team . . . even when the facts bear out that it isn’t very good. I’m nearly certain that Drayton resists the urge to dump salary and/or utility veterans because he believes that doing so—throwing in the towel, in effect—will affect the gate. So he certainly doesn’t deserve credit, because all he’s trying to do is watch the bottom line.

However. He definitely deserves credit because his actions—regardless of their genesis—have led to strong second halves as at least the perceived faith that McLane feeds back to/from the players. Since Drayton fired Jim Williams at the break in 2004, the Astros are 208 – 153 in the second half, good for a .576 winning percentage, and equivalent to a 93-win season.

I mean, the 2005 Astros were 45 – 30 in the second half. With Jason Lane and Adam Everett and a very weak offense. I’d argue that some of their overachieving was simply due to the faith they perceived had been placed in them.

So, screw that cheapskate McLane, and give him some credit, too.

Alright, time to deport Bourn.

by rastronomicals on Oct 1, 2008 7:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

OK

But I’m still not giving him a lot of it.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Oct 1, 2008 8:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wade on 790 this morning

few things to take away from the discussion, but the caveat is obviously that it doesn’t matter what is said barely two days after the end of the season. a lot is going to happen in the offseason that could change any current stances.

that being said, here are some bullet points:

- he said Bourn is still pencilled as the starting CF in his mind, but he’s got to go play winter ball and work on his game, and if an opportunity arose to upgrade that position or any other, they’d obviously consider alternatives.

- he sounds like he’s going to do everything in his power to re-sign Wolf. i’m sure it would have driven some here crazy, but he said something along the lines of “the Wolf trade was a turning point in our season”, but also that even if they had not traded for him, he would have been looking at signing him this offseason and people would have been excited about that, or something. i didn’t really understand that.

- when first asked about the rotation, he said that he was lucky to have Roy as a true #1, that he thought Wandy, despite some injuries, had a really nice season, then the stuff about Wolf, and that you can’t ignore what Moehler did and since he did it for an entire season, you can’t consider it an aberation. beyond that, he said there were a lot of question marks going into next season (ahem-Backe). later though, he said that Backe was probably going to be in their plans for next season and that he thought Backe pitched a few games that were the best pitched games of the Astros season, so the talent is there, but Brandon needs to find some consistency. he mentioned that Backe was still not very far removed from his surgery, yada, yada. i’d expect to see Backe around and competing for a rotation spot, but i’m guessing there are no guarantees there.

- he likes where the bullpen is at and said that getting Brocail and Hawkins back were high priorities. he mentioned Geary is going to have minor groin surgery, but looks forward to having him back. he also praised Byrdak, Wright, and Sampson. i’d expect only minor bullpen tinkering, and hopefully that means that the rotation will be priority #1.

- he said they still like Towles, but that he’s going to need to play some winter ball and will have to earn his spot next season. talked about how it was a tough spot for JR, and that they weren’t the only team that had high expectations for him; that other clubs were asking about him last offseason. but it did almost sound to me like they would be open to getting a new catcher. i can’t imagine that earning his spot means it’s just him and Q fighting for playing time. there’s not much else in the system.

- as i was pulling into the parking garage at work, he was saying something about Newhan and Loretta, and how a lot of fans will be expecting turnover and fresh blood, but they can’t ignore guys that were significant contributors to this year’s team. he also went on about how professional a hitter Loretta is and how his attitude rubs off on the guys in the clubhouse. i’m not sure what conclusions can be drawn from all that.

in the end, it was a lot of GM-speak. not too much to infer, but I figured i’d share it anyway.

this will be a big offseason, but i’m figuring on MUCH fewer moves. hopefully there will be at least one move in the rotation and maybe something to address the catching position, but i wouldn’t expect too much beyond that. we’ll see.

by littlevisigoth on Oct 1, 2008 9:37 AM CDT   0 recs

DEAR GOD

I hope we don’t waste a few million dollars signing Wolf with those funds could be allocated signing a legitimate top-tier pitcher. Maybe we need to start a letter writing campaign.

Thanks for taking the time to summarize that, I really appreciate it.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Oct 1, 2008 10:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

succintly (and well) done

thanks for listening and paring that down to a manageable size so all of us can get it. ive heard a lot of gm’s talk, but wade seems like one of the more straightforward of the bunch. he’s not near as secretive (or it seems that way), as others. im sad about wolf. i hypothesized in a comment to an earlier article this week that i figured wolf would be offered a nice chunk of change to stay. D’oh!

by HighLeveragePerformer on Oct 1, 2008 1:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Reflections

First let me thank you guys for a great season here in the Boxes. You’ve done a hell of a lot of work and I’ve had a hell of a good time dropping in. I’ve been an Astro fan from the start and it’s good be able to spend some time with my own.

This was a frustrating team. There were streaks where they played way over their heads and streaks where they positively sucked. And they did it as a group, like girls in the dorm all getting their periods at once. I don’t know whether to credit this to the manager, team chemistry, or whims of the baseball gods. But it was a roller coaster ride from the start. And the big finish could only make you wonder what if things had not dropped so far earlier on.

I was glad to see Bergman come back strong this year — could have been MVP on a winner. And Oswalt finally got healthy and came back to form. Wiggy, Tejada, and Matsui were a quite decent infield and Carlos Lee probably earned his pay. I was very happy with Erstadt, but Loretta and Blum were less consistent. I had some qualms about Villareal, but he proved me wrong.

We all agree catcher and centerfield are problems. Bourne looks to be Willie Taveras with a worse OBP. He did not seem make good contact. Towles was clearly not ready for prime time and without more production from the OF, the team can’t afford a weak hitting catcher like Ausmus. I would keep Bourne for one more year to use as a pinch runner and defensive replacement just to see if he can raise his average the 50 points he needs to be a starter. My top priority for the offseason would be to shop around for a good young catcher, starting in Arlington where they have more than they know what to do with. The Ranger front office is so inept, you can probably get Taylor Teagarden for Doug Brocail.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Yes, we need another ace, but I’m not convinced that Sheets is our guy. I’m inclined to take a shot on an old guy like Glavine, Smoltz, Pettit, or even Randy Johnson. At least you get your next AAA pitching coach out of the deal. Used to be we’d get a mob of wannabes in spring training and a few of them would be good enough to fill the middle bullpen slots. This year, we just didn’t catch much in the net.

But the top priority for the team is to restock the farm system. Down there we are totally depleted. We need to be scouring the world for young players, and we need to do better at developing what we have. In the mean time, I’d look for a couple of rule 5 players and put everyone on the block except Bergman.

So I have rambled enough. In the offseason, I’d like to follow our players in the winter leagues, hear all the juicy rumors, and get some indepth stats on this season. I hope this will be the place for that.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Oct 1, 2008 10:33 AM CDT   0 recs

I wonder how much

Ed Wade could get from the Rangers, Mets, or Brewers for the bullpen? Like, the whole thing.

I mean, Ed Wade has shown himself to be pretty good at building the thing. If you pick up some of the cast-off players from other teams and anchor the pen with one or two really good pitchers, you’ve got one of the best relief corps in the majors. Wade was willing to take chances on guys like Hawkins, and it paid off.

So you go to one of the many teams that has a crappy bullpen, give them one of the best, and in return you get a good number of that team’s top offensive prospects.

Maybe I’m missing something here, but it seems that a team could make quite a profit if they pulled this move every couple years. It’s just a matter of finding the decent relievers that teams like the Yankees have given up on.

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 1, 2008 10:58 AM CDT   0 recs

the player that surprised me was Wiggington

both defensively and offensively. He might not perform that well in the future. Or perhaps he’s comfortable and happy.

Bourn was a guy who seemed pretty good from watching him. I’d hear you guys complaining about him and finally looked up his splits. He did hit pretty well against the Brewers and the other games I saw were mostly on WGN and he hit the Cubs okay as well. Next year maybe you’ll have a CF who is better but hits the Brewers poorly.

by ol Pete on Oct 1, 2008 1:10 PM CDT   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the Crawfishboxes, the SBNation blog for the Houston Astros.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Nsapcs13_large_small
Line Drives, BABIP, and Minute Maid Park
Nsapcs13_large_small
MLB Network
Vy_rosebowl2006_small
Why be an astros fan?
Nsapcs13_large_small
Tejada may change mind and play in winter league
Small
Looking Back and Looking Forward
Nsapcs13_large_small
Cubs sign Aaron Miles...how will that affect the NL Central?
Nsapcs13_large_small
Murray Chass on baseball signings, collusion...
Logo4_small
Boone's Farm and Hard as Clay
Lulu_small
SS Robert Andino being shopped by marlins.
Whiplash_rodeo_monkey_small
The Niekro legacy lives on!

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
Chicago 97 64 .602 0 Lost 4
Milwaukee 90 72 .555 7.5 Lost 1
Houston 86 75 .534 11 Won 1
St. Louis 86 76 .530 11.5 Won 6
Cincinnati 74 88 .456 23.5 Lost 5
Pittsburgh 67 95 .413 30.5 Won 1

(updated 1.8.2009 at 4:10 AM CST)


Humble Blog Managers

Coolmo_small HighLeveragePerformer

Lovelance_small DyingQuail

Editor

Nsapcs13_large_small clack

ad

Site Meter