Roy Oswalt Falters Against the Marlins: Astros NL Wild Card Odds (9/17/08)
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 8:34 AM CDT
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PrintSome losses hurt worse than others. The Cubs losses were hard to swallow, but understandable. Last nights loss inspires only dread in me. Roy's our ace, the guy who is supposed to be able to right the ship for us, but that didn't happen last night. Fortuanately for the Astros, the NL Wild Card race has a new contestant: the Mets. As a result, the Astros only lost one in the elimination column, but an extra half game in the standings too.
The odds reflect all the changes:
| Report | Wild Card | |
| BPro Unadjusted |
5.31989% | |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted |
8.31916% | |
| Cool Standings |
5.9% | |
| SCS Weighted |
5.8% | |
| SCS 50/50 |
6.6% |
We've basically regressed to where we stood a week ago -- which of course means there's ground to gain, because the teams we're trying to pass keep losing. The good news in all of this is, that the average wins it takes to claim the NL Wild Card continues to fall. However, it will still take an 89-90 win season to clinch or force a playoff game. That's an indirect way of saying that we HAVE to starting winning baseball games ASAP.
Here are your match-ups. I don't have time to do my usual "what to pray to the baseball gods for," because I have to run to class, but I trust you all will make the appropriate requests.
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I like that.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Whoever's voting "no" needs to cut that crap out
Even if you don’t really believe you’ve gotta pretend that you do.
A non SBN Cubs Blog
Has an article up today insinuating that we’re all bunch of incessant whiners who have nothing to justify our ire. So imagine there are people streaming over and taking time to click.
I however agree, I thought about No, but clicking No does nothing for me. While holding onto whatever hope is left can get me through the long dark nights ahead.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Anything to justify Zambrano being handed a no-hitter.
Cubs can’t get a no-hitter without a hurricane to help.
by entropic soul on Sep 17, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Good Call
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
With you all the way
Whoever’s voting “No” here must not be Crawfish Boxes regulars. (I sincerely hope)
I thought the team started to rebound about the 6th or 7th inning last night.
Let’s see how they perform today. It still won’t be easy. For one, the Marlins have won 6 in a row and suddeny are in the Wild Card race.
I’ll definitely follow them closely and root them on – Brewers and Mets are doing their part to encourage the Astros.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 17, 2008 12:37 PM CDT reply actions
Galveston kid on the mound
hopefully there’s some big game mojo, pitching for the folks back home, type thing going on with Backe tonight and he can shake us out of this mini-funk. If we can pull out these next two and still manage to win this series, we’ll be back on the pace we needed to finish with to give ourselves a chance at this thing.
For the record, I’m with EC. I’ll keep believing until we’re mathmetically eliminated.
Lastly, man… if I wasn’t already eager as can be for a Cubs post-season meltdown, I sure am now. Selig is the biggest culprit for how the Cubs series was handled, but the booing and the chest-thumping (mostly from the fans, not from the team), sure have my anti-Cubbie vitriol set at warp factor ten.
by littlevisigoth on Sep 17, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Poetry
my anti-Cubbie vitriol
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
who voted
“no”? at this point, i wouldn’t count the astros out of anything. seriously-i think the astros could not only win a weak afc this year, but also collectively take on the “redeem team” in a game of five on five. hunter could be a wing, and step out and guard cp3, while a balls out guy like erstad could hopefully hold his own against kobe. lebron would be a matchup problem, but i bet valverde could intimidate him.
by Evan Hochschild on Sep 17, 2008 2:38 PM CDT reply actions
And let us not forget
that the Astros would probably play the greatest game of football in the MLB. We’ve got the Puma, who (I’m sure) dominates his flag-football league, and we have THE GREATEST PUNTER EVER to play baseball.
Not that we’d ever need to punt.
Plus, Carlos looks like he could make a good lineman.
Is Backe QBing?
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
you know
Jack Cassel’s brother is starting for the Pats. I’m sure there’s some football in his background as well.
by littlevisigoth on Sep 17, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Michael Bourn gives Moss a run for his money too
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 17, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
not tall enough
he’d be more of a Wes Welker type (keeping with the Pats theme)
by littlevisigoth on Sep 17, 2008 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions
miggy could
hook our guys up with ‘roids…too soon? puma would have to watch his acl, he has a history of tearing those when he plays football. at least he isnt like mo alou, who tore his on a treadmill. backe could qb certainly. we’d have to turn of the D when we play the cubs team- derosa was a qb at brown (or one of the ivies) and samardzija was a golden domer wr. plus d lee was a hoopster at unc for a year or so, so that’d be a nice wr combo. all in all, i think mark loretta would be a competent backup qb to backe- sort of in the brad johnson mold- smart, stable, doesn’t make mistakes. geoff blum could would either be the quirky california surfer boy kicker, or a free safety. carlos lee would play d-line and would be our goal line RB. bourn is a db/wr a la deion sanders. wiggy is an H-back almost like how the colts use dallas clark. the bullpen guys don’t need glamorous positions, so theyd be o-lineman. brocail is the center.
by Evan Hochschild on Sep 17, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
We forgot about Reggie!
He’s about the right size for WR and he’s fast. No guarantee he can catch a football, but we’ll assume so.
If I recall the broadcasters talking about Abercrombie earlier....
they said he was a quarterback recruit when he finished high school, and had a scholarship to play quarterback at Auburn (I think) if he had not chosen the baseball route.
I did
Sorry. I tried to go back and re-vote, so I could pretend like Only_A_Lad suggested, but it was too late.
And yeah, I’ve been trying not to infect anyone else with my downer-ness. . . but yeah, struggling. I had basically told my friends that I wasn’t going to get excited about this little September surge until after the Cubs series. It’s over. The boys, they don’t look good.
I dearly hope I’m wrong. Sorry.
I'm not sure the Astros will win another game
but I still believe… I’m proud of what they have done in the 2nd half of the season and I don’t really hold a lot against them if they lose the rest of the season…
I’ve been VERY lucky after the storm… and I’m still down about it.. I have a lot of people on my mind lately and wouldn’t want to play baseball right now either.
Go 'Stros!
Well,
maybe I misunderstood the question. I thought it was, “do you still believe the Astros will make the post-season?” For me, that answer is no.
Looking to the broader question of believing in this team, I understand being down about the storm. I have a lot of friends and family that were affected by it too, although I myself was very fortunate and they were as well, for the most part. It is in the back of my mind all the time right now.
And yet, no matter what is on my mind—a storm, the death of a friend’s child, whatever—I must go to work every day and give my best effort and stay focused on the task at hand. In my line of work, if I don’t do so, I could kill somebody. Baseball differs in that regard, obviously, but professionalism knows no job description.
Or at least, it shouldn’t.
DON'T PANIC!!!!
Yeah time might be running out, but keep in mind… at this point it is less about winning and more about “don’t choke as much as the other guy.”
Plus the Astros have the easiest schedule.
I wrote about how just holding on could lead the Astros all the way to the NLCS
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.14.2012 at 12:03 AM CST)
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