NL Wild Card Race Gets More Interesting: Tie Breaker Locations and Coin Flips

by DyingQuail on Sep 12, 2008 6:40 PM CDT Comment 41 comments

While Hurricane Ike continues to batter the Gulf Coast with crashing surf and coastal Texans, and anyone on the I-45 corridor, batten's down the hatches, Major League Baseball was trying to add some certainty to its play off picture. Via conference call today, MLB teams still in contention called heads or tails to determine whether their team will have home field advantage in the multitude of tie breaking scenarios.

The Astros didn't do so hot, but they faired a lot better than the Brewers who didn't win a single home field advantage in any of the three possible tie breaking scenarios they could enter into for the Wild Card -- I think this is a clear sign from the baseball gods that the Beermakers are just not going to be in the post season. (note: they did win home field advantage for the NL Central Title, but let's ignore that to make my conclusion valid) The Phillies on the other hand, won every single coin toss, securing home field advantage for any of their four possible tie breakers. The Astros three tie breaking games could be one of the following:

Milwaukee a@ Houston
Houston @ Philadelphia
Houston @ St. Louis

Anyway, for those of you that will still have power tonight and are in a safe enough locale to keep track of baseball's comings and goings, here's a box score to keep track of for our Wild Card fortunes. I wish everyone the best and BE SAFE!!

Weather delay - 9.12.2008	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
St. Louis Cardinals	♦									0
Pittsburgh Pirates										0

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Cardinals losing 10-1 in the ninth

Brewers and Phillies rained out (shoulda moved the game to Milwaukee, eh Cubs fans? or Kansas City?)

Mets rained out too. (they shoulda moved the game to Milwaukee eh Cubs fans?)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 12, 2008 9:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pirates 10 CARDINALS 2 - final score

As I predicted earlier in the week , the Cardinals are fading fast.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 12, 2008 9:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's an explanation for the sudden failure of the Cardinals and Brewers.

The MLB only recently started testing for amphetamine use. It was pretty common throughout most sports for a long time, and it probably contributed to the ability of starters to play every day so late into seasons.

The Astros have remarkable depth in the bench and bullpen. The bench isn’t spectacular, but Coop has a lot of options. That’s really helping the Astros out, at this point.

Of course, the sudden return of vintage Roy and Wolf doing well definitely helps, as does Wigginton’s spectacular August numbers. That and a healthy dose of luck has gotten them this far.

So that might be why the Brewers and Cards are losing so much ground so quickly. They both have massive problems in either the bullpen or bench, while the Astros don’t. So the Good Guys were able to absorb the injuries to Wiggy, Carlos, and (to a much lesser extent) starting pitching. And, unlike a decade ago, athletes can’t turn to drugs to keep going.

And hopefully the Cubs games will be delayed until after the regular season is over. That’s probably the best-case situation.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 12, 2008 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure I follow

The Brewers this year, a team with a lot of young players, is scuffling because PEDs were banned years ago? Do I have that right?

The Brewers aren’t doing well because they aren’t hitting, especially their 3-4-5 hitters, Braun, Fielder and Hart. They’ve got a lot of nice bench players who often don’t get played because the manager just doesn’t do it. They have 4 nice relievers and some passable others as well as options that were in AAA till September call ups but the bullpen use is determined by the manager who uses guys who are failing far beyond reason.

by ol Pete on Sep 12, 2008 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Astros

were no more and no less likely to be involved with amphetamines than any other team.

Which is to say that if you’re going to assume that key regulars on the Cards or the Brewers are flunking out because they can’t reach for the cookie jar, then you have to wonder why you don’t see the same effect with Berkman and Pence and Tejada (especially Tejada).

I do however, wonder whether Ned Yost is a destabilizing force on that team, or more accuarately whether he is capable of stabilizing. This makes two straight years the Brew Crew have floundered late. Not necessarily significant, but it might be.

Demote Bourn . . . Before Someone Gets Hurt

by rastronomicals on Sep 12, 2008 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well,

The hypothesis only attempts to explain why the Wild Card race is so wild and why we’ve seen so many late-season collapses in the past few years. Of course, those can also be explained by luck, but I think it might have some effect.

But I’d definitely place the Brewers’ current problems down to a combination of poor hitting, anyways. Ned Yost’s treatment of his pitching staff certainly doesn’t help. I know a lot of people explain his use of Sabatthia by saying that he won’t have to face the consequences next year, but I’m more inclined to say that Yost doesn’t know what he’s doing with his pitchers.

I’m not saying the Astros wouldn’t be involved in something like that. I’m sure they were involved in drug use as much as any other club. My point was something about having a strong bullpen and bench, and how that likely protects a team more now that that era has ended.

And we do see that sort of downturn with Tejada. The dude’s been far below-average (for him, as well as the league) since June. I know part of the explanation has been his annual involvement with winter ball, but the fact that he’s in his 30s and (probably) suddenly off of whatever he was using doesn’t help. He’s not the iron man he was in his 20s.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 12, 2008 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the more I think about it

I guess it doesn’t really apply to the brewers. As Pete says, they’re a very young team. The “Ned Yost is stupid and the Brewers suck right now” explanation is much better.

Just an idea I was turning over in my head.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 12, 2008 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also consider the Cubs' bench and bullpen to be very good...

probably better than the Astros.’ However, I have felt throughout the year that the Cubs were due for a fall. The Cubs are good, but not as good as they seemed to be most of this season. The Cubs have been riding the wave of an incredible home record; their road record is worse than the Astros.’ I’m not surprised that they could run into a down period.

As for the Brewers, one of their main attributes, their youth, is also a risk factor in a pennant race. It often takes a young nucleus of players several years ol “almosts” before they can get to the playoffs. (I think about the number of such seasons for Biggio-Bagwell nucleus before they go to the playoffs in 97). If the Brewers can hold things together and continue to come up with pitching in the future, I think they will be really tough when their young nucleus gets to the 27-29 year old “peak” age.

I have seen enough complaints and evidence from knowledgeable Brewers’ fans to believe that Yost has some real shortcomings in handling a pitching staff.

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

pitching staff is just the beginning

by ol Pete on Sep 13, 2008 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

baseball between the numbers

notes that “team age” and “team playoff experience” have positive correlations to playoff success. not as significant as other factors, but still a positive correlation. Unfortunately, the largest negative correlation to playoff success? W-L% after Aug. 31st….then again, what have numbers meant to the astros??

by HighLeveragePerformer on Sep 13, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Astros Only Gain Ground Friday

I have been trying to stay on an even keel as the Astros have made their September run. In part this is to protect my fragile psyche, but it is also in part due to the fact that results be damned, I still find it hard to get past the Astros’ for-the-most-part unspectacular personnel.

But I’m starting to believe. Houston has never done quite as well against the Pirates as they should have, and with the Astros needing a four-game sweep, I thought that going in, the Pirates were ripe to wreck the train and take one or even two of the games. . . . yet the Astros swept anyway, in complete disregard of my pessimism.

Then here comes Ike, and I got negative again, about how Houston’s momentum would be slowed or stopped.

And it still may be, but give something a thought before you pass judgement. Think about Friday night , when, with the Astros-Cubs cancelled, the only way the Astros could have kept from losing ground to a Wild Card competitior was if the Pirates (who we had just brutalized) could beat the Cards and THEN the Brewers and the Phillies (scheduled to play in stadium a long way from any tropical cyclone) should get rained out.

Well, looky what happened.

I think it’s a clear sign of intervention by pro-Astro baseball Gods.

You might say that it’s simply the weather giving and the weather taking away, but with longtime nemesis Z having been scheduled to start Friday before the hurricane washed things out, is that even true?

All I ever ask is for a September that matters. People talk about 2004 and 2005, and they should, but I was plenty happy in September of 2006 as well, despite the fact that we fell just short. So I’m happy now. But for the first time, I have a little inkling that maybe, just maybe, the Astros have the advantage the rest of the way, and not the Brewers, or the Phillies.

Take care, Gulf Coasters (if you can even read this)

Demote Bourn . . . Before Someone Gets Hurt

by rastronomicals on Sep 12, 2008 10:38 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I don't what ritual sacrifices the Astros have been making in the locker room

But they are working. Thank you baseball gods. Thank you.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Sep 13, 2008 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

plans for games Sunday and Monday

Here is the Brewers’ beat reporter’s blog post on the subject.

It would probably be worth checking his blog later for updates. If it does happen, it will be an advantage for the Cubs. Its easy travel for them and there will be large crowds of Cubs fans. Miller Park is actually easier and quicker to get to for many in the Northern suburbs of Chicago than Wrigley. Its also much cheaper.

by ol Pete on Sep 13, 2008 12:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I don't like the idea of playing the Cubs at Miller ...

(particularly when the Astros no longer have starting pitcher, Wade Miller, who jokingly owned the stadium.:))

This article indicates that MMP was undamaged, and the Astros believe it can host a game.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080913&content_id=3467120&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

However, having seen continuous news coverage about the Houston area this morning (the Austin broadcasting stations have picked up continuous feeds from their “sister” stations in Houston), I find it hard to believe that a game could be played in Houston Sunday. At this point, there is substantial bayou flooding in Houston, and it has yet to recede. The mayor is telling everyone to stay off the roads, and there appears to be many obstructions on roadways.

The other problematic factor for moving the game is that it may be difficult for Astros’ players to get out of town. Air service is not available right now. For that matter, air transit for the Cubs to Houston would be difficult too, which makes a Sunday game less likely.

If the game has to be played at a stadium other than MMP, why don’t they consider the Rangers’ home park? The Rangers are out of town. Now that I think about it, it may be touch and go as to whether hurricane-related rain squalls will have completely left the metroplex by tomorrow.

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This Whole Miller Park Thing is a Joke

We should thank our good friends the Milwaukee Brewers for making their park available. Since they’re in Philly right now, I guess they figure they can take care of both their competitiors in the WC race by Tuesday.

I can see why the Cubs love it, and I can see why Milwaukee’s all for it, but since no-one else seems to be, let’s think about the Astros for a second. As I write at 2:30 EST on Saturday, you have to assume that the Astros players are still in H-town. So if this edict about Miller Park comes down in the next couple hours, the Astros will have to brave the flooded streets of Houston, deal with the airport, fly the height of the country, play a doubleheader tomorrow, , play a game Monday and then make the long trip from Milwaukee to Miami Monday night.

Great idea, if you’re the Brewers.

The Braves are in New York tomorrow, why don’t they play the games at Turner Field, just a little closer to Houston? ‘Course it’s not convenient for the media darling, annoited champion Cubs. . . .

Or hell,just play the games at Zephyr Field In New Orleans. That would be the least intrusive idea, and a way for New Orleans to pay Houston back for what it did for the city of New Orleans in the aftermath of Katrina. You could make the games benefits. . . .

Not that I don’t think Drayton and Tal Smith and Pam Gardner aren’t pleading our case as hard as they can with the bigwigs in NY, but the way this seems to be going, the Astros, the team already most affected by this thing, are the ones who will continue to get the shaft.

Demote Bourn . . . Before Someone Gets Hurt

by rastronomicals on Sep 13, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt the Brewers have anything to do with it

I would guess if they had their way, the game would be played in Houston or far from Chicago – how about Kazakhstan? But not Milwaukee as that favors the Cubs.

I think Turner Field doesn’t have a good weather forecast.

Now the bean counters who work for whoever controls Miller Park? That’s another story.

by ol Pete on Sep 13, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Somebody's Got To Win

If I’m the Brewers I mind a Cubs win and an Astros loss less than an Astros win and a Cubs loss

They’d like to win the division, but they’ve gotta win the WC

I also think its naive to think that the teams don’t get involved in situations like this trying to jockey for position.

McLane and the Astros higher ups are trying to get the games played in Houston mostly because they know its best for the Astros chances. So what would make me think that the Brewers brain trust wouldn’t push for whatever maximized the Brewers’ chances?

Demote Bourn . . . Before Someone Gets Hurt

by rastronomicals on Sep 13, 2008 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How would the Brewers even have a part in the conversation?

by ol Pete on Sep 13, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By "Volunteering"

Something that let’s say the Braves—who don’t really care one way or the other—haven’t done

Demote Bourn . . . Before Someone Gets Hurt

by rastronomicals on Sep 13, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haven't Done That We Know Of.

Demote Bourn . . . Before Someone Gets Hurt

by rastronomicals on Sep 13, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they can't volunteer - they don't have any say

Besides, I’m telling you, they want the Astros to beat the Cubs.

by ol Pete on Sep 13, 2008 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dell Diamond would be an ideal place...

heck, there are thousands of evacuees from the Houston area in the Austin area already. Not to mention that many Astros fans live here. So it would be like a home game. However, I vaguely recall that this was a possibiity a couple of years ago when a hurricane threatened and MLB told the Astros that Round Rock doesn’t have major league quality lighting or some such excuse.

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Chicago fans want to see a game in Milwaukee

let them move the White Sox series up there. Yesterday’s game was potponed and today’s may be too.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 2:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Saturday's White Sox game postponed because of rain

Hey Sox- Move the games to Milwaukee. (For that matter move the White Sox to San Antonio (permanently) )

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Moving to Miller Park is bull

No Astros fan in his or her right mind would agree to moving the game outside the city, especially there. They keep talking about the want the fans to be safe and they don’t want to play baseball in Houston while people are worried about their homes… If I lived in Houston and they were playing a game right now, I’d be there. Screw all this hurricane bullshit. Before the games were postponed, I even thought about driving down cause I thought it would be cool to go to game when everyone else was out of town.

by entropic soul on Sep 13, 2008 2:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The only place I can see doing it

that’s fair to Houston is in Arlington. But the Rangers are on a homestand. If the MLB seriously wants the games played immediately, then play them in Round Rock or New Orleans (not sure how Corpus Christi is doing).

Or, better yet, just postpone the games until the end of the season.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 13, 2008 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rangers are in Oakland Sunday....so they could play there on that day.

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have nothing against Milwaukee

But the games need to be played in Houston. What if we miss the post season by one game and we lose one or two or even three to the Cubs in an away park when we should be playing at home.

by entropic soul on Sep 13, 2008 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

McLane seems to be conceding that the game may have to played elsewhere.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/5999529.html

McLane doesn’t want to play while Houston residents suffer. (The logic seems fuzzy, unless he means postponing the games until later in the season.) Selig wants a stadium with a roof, in order to avoid any more weather issues. That leaves Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Milwaukee, and McLane says the D-Rays begin a homestand and the Twins have a college and NFL football game. This is going to suck for the Astros’s chances.

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 5:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Meanwhile the Brewers are on their way to losing.

Down 7-3 to the Phillies in the 8th.

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 5:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's final...Phillies over Brewers

by clack on Sep 13, 2008 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braves beat Mets 3-2 Saturday

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 6:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Mets win second game 5-0

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where's a Mets -Astros playoff played?

(please don’t say Milwaukee)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 6:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL

by entropic soul on Sep 13, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAHA

I guess they’ll have to have to coin flip too…

by DyingQuail on Sep 13, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like it's going to be in Milwaukee

So says ESPN during the USC-OSU game.

The Good Guys will just have to kick ass on the road, then.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 13, 2008 9:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

But

one will be played on 09/29, if necessary.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 13, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am outraged!

Astros must come together and fly to Milwaukee tomorrow (Sunday) and get in a mindset to play a critical baseball game Sunday night. Then play again Monday afternoon before flying to Miami.

Outrageous . I’ll really be angry if the Astros lose Sunday night.

I despise Bud Selig – have for years. This is another reason why.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 10:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

From the Astros' release:

Ryan-Sanders Baseball, which operates the Astros’ Triple-A and Double-A clubs, offered to host at least one game of the series at The Dell Diamond in Round Rock.

That’s what makes this absolute crap. They could have played the game in-state. Hell, they could have played it in Arlington. Instead, Selig chose to do it in Milwaukee, essentially giving the Cubs two extra home games.

It’s no secret that Selig is de-facto owner of the Brewers (what conflict of interest?). So it’s no surprise that his decision benefits the Brewers in the standings and in revenue.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 13, 2008 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cardinals lose again

7-6 Saturday to Pirates in 12 innings

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 13, 2008 10:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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