Astros Sweep Pirates and Baseball Gods Approve: Playoff Odds 9/12/08
by DyingQuail on Sep 12, 2008 9:13 AM CDT
12 comments
The Astros swept the Pirates in a four game set and the baseball gods worked their magic to ensure that everything that wasn't in the Astros control went perfectly. While the Astros are currently depending on other teams to their bidding for them, they've been taking care of their end of the bargain for the last nine games. Their latest series sweep over the Pirates, coupled with a Phillies routing of Ben Sheets, and Rich Harden making easy work of the Cardinals has the Astros sitting 3 games behind Milaulkee as we all buckle down for Hurricane Ike. We remain static in the elimination column at 13, sharing our second place tie with the Phillies. Should the Phightin' Phils sweep the Brewers and the Astros take Sunday's possible double header from the Cubs, both teams would find themselves a game out of the NL Wild Card lead.
So what has this done for our Wild Card odds? Let's first just get a pretty picture of the NL Wild Card standings:
| Report | Wild Card | |
| BPro Unadjusted |
9.25311% | |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted |
15.23534% | |
| Cool Standings |
9.9% | |
| SCS Weighted |
9.8% | |
| SCS 50/50 |
10.8% |
The increases are dramatic. The biggest raw change of this week, by far. Crazily enough, we have a better shot at the Wild Card than the Phillies, but I suppose that probably has to do with their equally strong odds of winning their division. The trend we've seen this week is clear though: the more we keep winning, the bigger our odds increase.
Per usual, here are the match-ups du jour:
Cole Hamels takes his filthy 180:47 K:BB to the mound to face off against Manny Parra (another of my fantasy guys I will gladly root for the get creamed), Parra who has been either ON or OFF this season -- my fingers, and I assume your's, are crossed for the latter.
Maholm is another of my fantasy guys (yes, I know...too many NL Central guys) and to counteract my benevolence for both Sheets and Parra getting shelled, I hope that he has a wicked outing against the Red Birds so that we can just put them in our rear-view mirror.
Hurricane Ike is coming, be safe and if you have power, stay tuned to the internet to keep up with the Wild Card race -- preferably here..
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Just for the record.
The Phillies/Brewers series is a 4 game set. If the Phillies sweep it, they will be tied for the Wild Card lead with the Brewers. We’d have to sweep the Cubs sunday (2 games) and Monday to do the same. (Assuming we play on those days)
Winning the Cubs series is our last “big” obstacle to the Wild Card. We still have a bunch of small ones to overcome, but this one is the toughest.
by entropic soul on Sep 12, 2008 12:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If they sweep the Brewers, there's also the possibility that they are out of the WC race
Tight play off races make life worth living,
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Sep 12, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phillies-Brewers postponed due to rain (Friday).
Cardinals-Pirates game is currently rain delayed.
by clack on Sep 12, 2008 6:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's shaping up to be a very exciting weekend
If those two games are pushed back to sat or sun, then we are possibly looking at 8 different playoff race games that concern us being played in those two days.
Cubs v Astros x2 on Sunday
Phillies v Brewers x 3 on Saturday and Sunday
Cards v Pirates x3 on Saturday and Sunday
You could arguably count the Mets games too, since they are just 3 games ahead of the Phillies. Some Phillies wins and Mets losses could throw the Mets into the Wild Card mix.
by entropic soul on Sep 12, 2008 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cards v Pirates game went on..
And the Pirates are tryng to kill the Cards’ playoff hopes.
Pirates leading 3-0 right now in the top of the 5th.
by entropic soul on Sep 12, 2008 8:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ESPN showed the Cardinals game briefly (regularly scheduled Yankees broadcast postponed)
but then moved on to the Jays-Red Sox game. They may go back to some of the St. Louis game, for all I know. At a break, Fernando Vina with ESPN’s Baseball Tonight has some nice things to say about the Astros. He said he likes Cooper and that he likes the way the Astros team never gave. He also talked about how difficult it is to face Oswalt. From personal experience, he said that Roy O’s fastball comes at an angle that makes every contact seem “off” to the batter. (I have seen similar descriptions by batters of Roy’s fastball…Curt Schilling said that Roy’s FB looks like it is rising, then ends up at the knees.) He said that Oswalt’s FB inside has such velocity that the batter tries to cheat by swinging early and get themselves out.
by clack on Sep 12, 2008 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cards getting crushed.
10-0 Pirates.
by entropic soul on Sep 12, 2008 9:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.10.2010 at 5:43 AM CST)
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