Friday Grab-bag
There's been a lot of debate on here about what the Astros should do to better themselves. Since we're all amateur GMs anyway, let's try our hand at fixing/improving this team ourselves.

This is a link to the 2008 Opening Day payroll of the Astros. Some things have changed (Chacon going Sprewell on Ed Wade) but the numbers should still hold up pretty well. Based on my first week here, I can tell just about everyone who posts comments has pretty strong opinions about this team. I dig. Why root for a team if you're just gonna be complacent? What I'm interested in seeing, is not necessarily what you want the Astros to do this offseason, but what you think they realistically can do. To that point, the club has major salary obligations to these players:
| Player | $ Owed in 2009 (in millions) |
| Miguel Tejada | $13 |
| Lance Berkman | $14.5 |
| Roy Oswalt | $14 |
| Carlos Lee | $18.5 |
| Kaz Matsui | $5 |
| Total | $65 |
More than 75% of the team's current payroll goes to these five guys. Now- let's assume that we go after a big name free agent starting pitcher. Ben Sheets has been a popular choice on here, so throw him in there. He's 30 years old, has great stuff, but has a history of injuries. Taking these factors into account, let's say Ed signs him to a 5 year contract worth 80 million dollars. Similar money to what Roy O is making right now. Add $15 mil to our payroll. That puts it at about $103 million. From there, it's anybody's guess.
That's where The Crawfish Boxes' readers come in. We've got the payroll at our fingertips, and here's a list of players that are expected to become free agents after the season. All the tools are at our disposal, so what can the Astros do, within reason, to get back to the postseason in 2009? Here's a few things I think would be interesting to think about
-Sign Rocco Baldelli to an incentive based contract. He could be the right handed side of a CF platoon. He may be worth the risk, as his history of injuries may drive his asking price down
-Do not offer salary arbitration to Brandon Backe. Postseason heroics aside, he hasn't done anything to give me confidence that he can be a viable starter for a major league team. Non-roster invitee to spring training?
-Make a run at Ben Sheets. If not him, then Jon Garland. Starting pitchers have a tendency to regress if they're signed too far after their 30th birthday. Either of these guys could offer the team 4-5 quality years. Let some other team sign the Braden Loopers of the world.
As nice as it would be to just build a team from a deep farm system, that isn't likely to happen. Yea, the Red Sox won a couple World Series with young players, but their decision to add David Ortiz when nobody wanted him, their trading for Mike Lowell, and shelling out the big bucks for Manny played just as big a role. The Astros won't have a viable farm system next year, but they can spend their money wisely. What do ya'll think?
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I'd go after...
Jon Garland and trying to bring back Andy from the Yankees. How hard of a sell could it be? Deer Park….New York City…Deer Park…New York City…
You’d probably spend more short term than you would on the first year of Sheet’s contract, but you’d get two pitchers who I think could perform better than one Sheet’s. Give Andy and 1yr/1yr option and Garland 2yr/1yr option and just pay over the mark on them. This is legitimately the last year we can really say that $65 million nucleus has the talent to go after the World Series, so we swing for the fences.
I hate myself for saying it, but my GF’s family are Cardinals fans, and I see what Jim Edmonds is doing to them as Cardinals fans and I think to myself: The man is not playing badly, let’s bring him in and have him be Michael Bourn’s Brad Ausmus/platoon. It would just kill the Cardinal nation, but I’d also feel weird about a man who’s done so much trauma to us being in our uni.
Also, do you think Tim Purpura saw the writing on the wall and just thought: I’ll back load this contract like none other, I mean, it’s no skin off my back. I won’t even be here to deal with it?
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Aug 8, 2008 9:54 AM CDT 0 recs
if the astros sign jim edmonds
i’d seriously consider disowning the team.
by lnewcomer on
Aug 8, 2008 1:07 PM CDT
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In that spirit
Chipper Jones is going to be a free agent too….we could make an offer to him as well! We could compile a team of Astro killers….
C: Jason Kendall
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Jeff Kent
3B: Chipper
SS: Furcal/Jeff Blauser/Any Brave SS ever (I refuse to list Eckstein as a killer of anyone)
LF: Ryan Klesko
CF: AndrUw Jones
RF: Brian Giles
SP: Smoltz, Milwood (1999 playoffs era ), Zambrano, Jason Schmidt (when he was with the pirates), Adam Wainwright
RP: Bobby Jenks, Neal Cotts, anyone from the ‘05 Chi Sox
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Aug 8, 2008 2:24 PM CDT
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But Chipper
Brings all those kids to the club house.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 9, 2008 11:27 AM CDT
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Have to keep in mind
FA we sign cost us draft picks. If we finish in top half of MLB, we lose our first round pick.
by lnewcomer on Aug 8, 2008 12:29 PM CDT 0 recs
draft PICK
ONE first rounder, if we’re in the top half of the league
ONE second rounder, if we’re in the bottom half of the league.
just to be clear.
by littlevisigoth on
Aug 8, 2008 1:19 PM CDT
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Okay
So to add to the info dump in your main article about where we stand right now (taking all mine from Cot’s), the Astros opening day 25-man roster payroll was $88,930,414.
The current value of the contracts for the players on our 25-man (which is a little misleading, because it includes contracts for players acquired mid-season and ignores money still owed to Woody, Shawn, and Oscar, but is presented just as a barometer) is about $90,557,500.
As stated above, we have 5 players under contract for 2009, with a total owed salary of $65,000,000.
The following 14 players are under club control for 2009, either with a club option or by virtue of not being eligible for free agency: Jose Valverde, Ty Wiggington, Doug Brocail (option), Geoff Geary, Geoff Blum (option), Brandon Backe, Tim Byrdak, David Newhan, Wandy Rodriguez, Humberto Quintero, Chris Sampson, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Wesley Wright. Of those 14, 5 are arbitration eligible (Valverde, Wiggy, Geary, Backe, and Newhan) and would likely receive significant raises. I’m not sure what Brocail and Blum’s options are worth, but the 7 guys with less than 3 years service time won’t be getting much of a pay increase (total may be $1MM, if that). Cot’s may not be up to date on service time, so a couple of these guys may be over 3 years.
That leaves us with 6 guys that are free agents and not under contract for next year: Wolf, Ausmus, Hawkins, Loretta, Erstad, and Moehler.
Not counting any of the free agents, and not escalating any arb-eligible player salaries, we’re already looking at about $83,300,000, with six spots to fill. Some of those spots may be filled with cheap young talent (Paulino, Towles, etc), but any big name free agent is going to take the opening day payroll up in the $95-100MM range, which according to Cot’s would be a new high (they say the highest opening day payroll over the last 8 years was in 2006, when it was about $92,500,000, which must have included money owed to Bagwell. I guess the Clemens contracts weren’t figured into those numbers.
I’m assuming Drayton could stomach one big signing, but that’d have to be about it. I doubt Garland AND Pettitte would be an option, but I obviously am just a schmuck on a blog that doesn’t know any better. Sheets may be within reach, but I severely doubt Sabathia and his 8-10 year demands would be in the cards. If we try to resign Wolf, that probably cuts into the FA pitcher budget quite a bit.
I’ve always liked Baldelli, but he’s the Mark Prior of position players. If he’s heathly enough at the start of the season, I’m sure SOMEBODY will sign him. I certainly would be behind a low-risk contract. I don’t know about Edmonds. He’s playing well right now, but I don’t think he’s got too much left in the tank. He’s getting paid $8MM this year. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any more than half that. Also, I just don’t know if I could get myself to root for the guy.
I can’t imagine what potential there would be to orchestrate a trade, but who knows? Ed did a lot of surprising last offseason (some good, some bad…. although I know a lot of people would scream: ALL BAD!).
Towles has another month and a half to do some convincing that he’s developing and may still have some potential. If the brass isn’t sold, I don’t know what they’ll do. The catcher market is pretty bleak.
Anyway, mostly just wanted to add some more data to the discussion. I’ll hang up and listen.
by littlevisigoth on Aug 8, 2008 2:29 PM CDT 0 recs
Nice additions
I agree that he would stomach one big FA signing, but not two. I don’t have much faith left in Andy Pettitte, either. Sabathia is a long shot, and would probably ask for too much money anyways. Depending on what Wolf’s demands are, he would be ok to re-sign. A rotation of Wolf, Sheets, Oswalt, Wandy, Paulino would not be too shabby to enter the season with. Moehler could also compete, but I don’t think he could have a repeat of his 2008 performance. Hawkins I doubt will return, and Ausmus is iffy- who knows what will happen with Towles though, so we’ll have to wait and see. Maybe Drayton coaxes him back for another year. The free agent catcher market is weak, absolutely.
Another thing to keep in mind is that September means expanded rosters. We’ll probably see Chris Jonhson, JR Towles and Tommy Manzella grab a cup of coffee. Johnson especially has been tearing it up in AA ball, and was recently promoted to RR. Wiggy has been better than expected at third, but hopefully Johnson can come up and show some promise. Not to say we’ll fasttrack him like we did Towles, but a glipse of future greatness would be nice!
Sidenote: I don’t know how many of ya’ll have a subscription to baseballprospectus.com, but they have their own projection system, “PECOTA”, that is pretty much spot on. Within the player evaluator, they have a system that figures out just how much a player is actually worth. Pretty neat stuff.
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Aug 8, 2008 2:54 PM CDT
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Callups were discussed on the homepage
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080807&content_id=3271160&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou (end of the article)
all of the ones you named, plus Yordany Ramirez, were mentioned. it’ll be interesting to see what pitchers are called up, and if any of them look promising. i’m sure Hernandez and Cassel, for starters, maybe Nieve and the new Arias kid. i wonder about maybe Samuel Gervacio and Brad James. does anybody know, do you have to be on the 40-man to get called up (probably a dumb question)? that would preclude Borkowski, McLemore, and Muecke, as well as younger guys like Bud Norris and Polin Trinidad.
Coop said he’d take whatever he could get, but I’d assume, unless the Astros are in the middle of some monumental run, not many callups will be made until after the PCL and Texas League seasons are over. Maybe a bullpen arm or two and possibly Ramirez as speed and a backup OF.
by littlevisigoth on
Aug 8, 2008 3:53 PM CDT
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I didn't even think about
Ramirez. He’s a such a “toolsy” player, I’d love to see what he can do. It’d be a looonnng shot given his pretty poor minor league numbers, but he’d be a nice player to platoon in the outfield with Bourn. Yea, a player has to be on the 40 man roster to be able to be called up in September. Although they must be on the 25 man roster by 8/31 to be on the playoff roster….wishful thinking.
by HighLeveragePerformer on Aug 8, 2008 3:58 PM CDT 0 recs
I don't really have time to post a well thought out response to this right now...
but the quick and dirty of what I would do at the minimum…
Sign Ben Sheets
Rotation of Oswalt, Sheets, Wandy and whoever.. Moehler/Paulino/Backe could all fight for the 4 and 5 spots.. Sheets adds 7-9 wins to what the current Astros have right now(the difference of what he can do and who he replaced) and then move the weakest link to the bullpen and then the weakest link from there to who cares.
Offense, we need an outfielder… be it center or right field(and move Pence to center). I’m leaving for a wedding so I don’t have time to actually pick someone… but give me a .270’s guy who can either run, or slug and I’ll be at least pacified.
I think those 2 moves makes this team much closer to a contender than they are now.
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on Aug 8, 2008 6:01 PM CDT 0 recs
Ben Sheets Talk
Does anyone really trust Ben Sheets to stay healthy for a long term deal? I would not sign any 30 year old hard-throwing pitcher to a 90 million dollar long term deal.. how many times has that worked out for anyone?
by fire richard justice on Aug 8, 2008 6:10 PM CDT 0 recs
There's really no reason to think
that he’s going to get an pitching related injury… all of his injuries have pretty much been fluke injuries
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Aug 8, 2008 10:28 PM CDT
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There is reason to think
that he’s kind of a pussy though..
maybe next season..
by fire richard justice on
Aug 9, 2008 12:39 AM CDT
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I don't understand that comment.
Injuries=pussy? I haven’t seen anything to indicate he isn’t a tough competitior.
by clack on
Aug 9, 2008 8:36 AM CDT
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What matters
What matters - the only thing that matters - is rebuilding the farm system. We need to face the fact that there are no quick fixes, even if we doubled the payroll. We are not making the playoffs this year and have no better chance next year if we keep this club as is. We need to focus on players we want to keep for the 2010 season and beyond, and in my mind that is Berkman and maybe Pense. Anyone (but not everyone) else can go, including Oswalt. We want as many good A/AA prospects as we can get. And in the mean time, fill the open roster spots with some Rule 5 signings. If Drayton cuts the payroll, he will not lose much money over the next two years, and after that he should have a good, young, and still affordable team.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Aug 8, 2008 11:22 PM CDT 0 recs
If we doubled our payroll
and we weren’t in the mix for a division title at the least, then you’d have to send our management back to grade school.
If you have enough money, you can buy yourself a good team… just look at the Yankees(yes I realize they have some talent from their farm)
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Aug 9, 2008 6:57 AM CDT
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But nobody else has that money
My guess is the Yankee payroll is near $200 million, and even so they are struggling to buy their way in. (Mainly because of Rays. The Red Sox are another big spender.) But to play that game, you have to spend the big bucks year after year. One quick fix does not do it, and the economics of Houston Baseball are all wrong for that approach. At best, we will have a little over $100 million, which means we need a lot of young players and maybe some undervalued veterans. But, yeah, you are right that in the NLC, you could probably buy a pennant. The Cubs look to be proof of that.
Rich teams buying their way into the playoffs is a disgrace to the game. If I ruled the world (ahem) I’d make a rule that only teams under the cap are eligible for the wild card. If you’re going to buy your way in, you’ve got to win in all. No consolation prize for you.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on
Aug 9, 2008 10:31 AM CDT
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A cap
Would ruin the entire game. Everyone has the tools available to be successful. The Yankees have a huge revenue stream. If they want to utilize that to spend big money willy nilly, that’s fine. If a small market team wants to allocate their resources to scouting and development and produce a surplus of youth to both fill their roster and trade for veterans and get their salary comped, good. Or they can trade their veterans for more, better, youth to save money and continue to push the big market teams past the luxury tax mark. Mid-market teams get themselves in sticky situations because they have some money, but not a ton, and they have to go after the big splashy FA’s with the big dogs. However, if management can balance how their payroll gets allocated, they have just as good of a shot at a title as the big boys. The beauty of the market is that it rewards those who can best maximize their available resources and it severely punishes those who make poor decisions year after year—what I fear we will soon get a heaping taste of.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 9, 2008 11:38 AM CDT
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Yankees and Red Sox spend a lot on player development too.
Their revenue superiority isn’t just reflected in payroll, but also amateur signing bonuses, scouting, minor league coaching, etc.
by clack on
Aug 9, 2008 3:27 PM CDT
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True
But in the Yankees case, and generally speaking, the Sawx case as well, they use those prospects as trading chips. I by no means think that the current system is perfect or even effective, just waaaay more effective than the cap would be.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 10, 2008 4:01 AM CDT
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I'm not a fan of salary caps for baseball...
because caps are only effective if you have extensive revenue sharing in the sport (like the NFL). I think the players are entitled to a reasonable share of the game’s revenues, and the only way they assure that is through collective bargaining. With league-wide revenue sharing, the NFL players bargain for a percentage of the pie, and the salary caps grow as league revenues grow. Because baseball revenues are highly concentrated in big markets, baseball players’ bargaining strategy is to insist on a freely functioning market for players. Once the team revenue disparities have been in place this long, it is impossible to get it changed.
by clack on
Aug 10, 2008 9:48 AM CDT
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Baldelli is an interesting idea for CF platoon....
but you wonder if the injury history is too big a gamble. At the moment, the best CF platoon partner I can come up with is Reed Johnson. He should be a free agent unless the Cubs try to re-sign him before the FA period. He is a lefty killer with an OPS above .900 against LHP.
by clack on Aug 9, 2008 9:19 AM CDT 0 recs
I like the Reed Johnson idea, too
The Cubs may try hard to keep him if, 1) Edmonds starts to truly show his age towards the end of the season, and 2) if Felix Pie doesn’t get his act together in the minors.
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Aug 9, 2008 1:48 PM CDT
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