and sign Ben Sheets to a 5 year contract… then I say who gives a shit about the 1st round pick. If this was basketball or football where a 1st round pick is almost a lock to be an impact(or at least a contributor) player on your team, then that would be a different story… but in baseball… 1st round picks are still very much a crap shoot as to whether or not they turn out to be good major league talent.

Now I agree that unless we are actually going to come back and get in this playoff race(which isn’t likely), then losing games and putting us in the bottom half of the MLB standings isn’t a bad thing for the club… but we shouldn’t just mail it in now… you still have to be competitive and do whatever you can to win games.

Yes, first round picks in baseball are far from sure things. However, it is the act of giving them away like they’re nothing/failing to sign players drafted in the early rounds/overpaying free agents, and then losing first round picks, that has put this team’s farm system in the position they’re in. Here’s my thought: either Drayton spends $140 mil on a payroll every season until he sells the team, or the Astros need to continue attempting to accumulate early round draft picks. Sure, 90% of these guys drafted won’t reach the majors, but the 10% that will is a much higher percentage than we have right now.

to say that as long as we get high round picks, we’re going to turn into the Rays. the Royals and Pirates have also sucked for a really long time and reeled in a lot of top draft picks. guess what, they still suck.

i also don’t think we’re even on the brink of becoming the Royals or Pirates. Are you in the Roy is never going to be good again camp? i’m not. look at Peavy in 2006. even great pitchers have bad years. and he’s far from a sure thing, but we’ve got Paulino, who hopefully will be healthy next year. if it turns out that the 08 Astros are a 82-80 club, i don’t think it’s a monumental leap to think that a Sheets and maybe a small piece here or there could bring them to an 87-92 win team.

if we had some veterans in the last year of their contract that we could have sold off as rent-a-players or other obvious deadline fodder, i would have been all about trying to cash in for some prospects, but to me, there just weren’t many moves that would have made sense for next year. we’ve got a nucleus of quality talent (Roy, Lance, Carlos) that will be around for a few more years. why not try to continue to build a team to win with that nucleus?

lastly, I’m with Stros Bro. i’m just never going to root for the Astros to lose. that’s just not a part of what it means to me to be a fan and to enjoy watching baseball.

However, I don’t know that it is a dilemma. If the Astros don’t get first round protection, it means that their record will be reasonably decent (maybe .500—-and yes, I will be happy with a .500 record). And in that case, if Drayton is willing to sign impact free agents (Type A), it’s a good thing for fans, because the team is close enough to contention that free agent signing may be enough to put them in the hunt. If the scenario arises that they get to keep their 1st round pick, that’s good too. So, if you are a glass half-full kind of guy, it’s win-win either way.

One can argue that, if you are going to lose your 1st round pick anyway, then you think about signing multiple Type A free agents. Obviously, it depends on who is available and how much they can help the team; but you don’t lose any draft choices for any free agent signings after your first Type A signing.

Alternative strategies might include looking at Type B free agent pitchers (depending on who is available) since there is no loss of draft choices for Type B signings. If you know you are going to lose your 1st round pick (by signing Sheets, for instance), then I think you try to maximize your supplemental first round picks by offering arbitration to as many of your Type B free agents as possible. We don’t know who will be Type B free agents, but it is possible that Byrdak, Wolf, Loretta, and Erstad could become Type B free agents. (I’m assuming that Blum’s and Brocail’s options preclude arbitration.) Sure, you take a risk that they will accept arbitration, but I think the Astros need to be like those teams which almost always take the arbitration risk (like the Padres, A’s, and Brewers)—besides it’s not a terrible thing if any of those four players return.

Needless to say, the Astros have to avoid signing Type A FAs before the deadline for offering arbitration…a mistake made by Pupura in 2007. It probably didn’t hurt them on Lee (the Rangers would have offered him arbitration because everyone knew he would turn it down), but it could have cost them a draft choice for Woody Williams.

Let’s keep in mind though we can’t spend a ton of money every where this off-season. There is NO SHORT TERM FIX for this team. All I’m saying is we can try and achieve mediocrity or we can try and retool for greatness.

On a separate note, I’m glad that the people who were indirectly accusing me of questioning people’s fandom yesterday are crucifying me because I’m trying to think long term and not buy Drayton McLane’s endless stream of BS. I think fanhood has many forms, you have your cup of tea, I’ll have mine.

There is no way we will make the play offs this year we need to win 36 games out of 45.

There is however, a chance that we could add a marquee starting pitcher, see Roy Oswalt return to form, have Felipe Paulino pitch as well as many hoped he would this year. Maybe we could have Brandon Backe find some semblance of control and become an effective pitcher again. Wandy could find consistency home and away and learn how to control his poise. Miguel Tejada might not have a horrendous mid-season slump, Carlos Lee could play evened keeled and perhaps drop about 25-30 LBS so he can cover LF away from the short porch at MMP. Lance could eschew the red-hot streak for balanced play too. Pence could employ the lesson’s he’s learned to handle big-league pitching and play up to the level we all hoped he would. Michael Bourn could be a serviceable CF he returns to his incredible walk rates in the minors, making him a true lead off threat. JR Towles could remember what his swings used to be like. Kaz could play as well as he had, although it’d be nice if displayed that defensive prowess we’ve all heard so much about. Hell we could just put people on base and we’d be a lot better off than this year. I’m not starting on the bull pen. Further, we could then fire Cecil Cooper who has mismanaged our running game, our batting order, and our bull usage to maddening proportions.

All that could happen, I’d love for it to happen, I really would. There was no happier fan around coming into this season, I really thought we had what we needed to compete. However, it’s clear that there are just TOO many IF’s out there. Too many pages to synchronize. But it’s about hope and faith and those exist. Like I said, I’d applaud Drayton for signing a Sheet’s type character to come here and see what we can accomplish before it’s too late. But there’s not a lot of wiggle room in payroll to play that game more than once. That statement was conditional on us not forsaking rebuilding from the ground up. This franchise has lost it’s foundation. It’s heartbreaking.

Just a few years ago, we were one of the best run franchises in the business. We lost it. We got to cautious, we got to bold. We got hung up on big names for too long. It’s been what it’s been. There is a lot of work to be done to fix it or we’re on our way not becoming the Royals or the Pirates, but the Rangers. I don’ t think it makes me less of a fan of this organization to have the calm rationality to say that I’d rather forsake present enjoyment for future returns. I didn’t say, “Oh lets just bring up the Legends and have the field the 25 man roster.” I said, it won’t kill us to get shellacked 11-4 in route to a bottom half finish. It sends a message to the fans that all is not well and it sends a message to the thick skulls in our front office that there is a lot leaks springing on this ship. That situation would allow us to keep our first round pick, the only pick that has a strong probability of providing future performance from the draft, AND placate our fringe shot at competition in 2009. The situation I’m rooting for is the best of both worlds for both the immediate future and the long term picture.

Instead of even being willing to entertain that I’m trying balance both short term benefits and long term health, I was told that I wasn’t a true fan. Then I quickly became the scourge of fandom. In my mind’s eye it’s not fandom that says “let’s batton down the hatches full speed ahead, screw the future,” that’s mindless faith—the most dangerous thing in the world. But I understand the impulse so I’m glad that there are people who will be happy with that. I won’t. A .500 season is meaningless. The point of playing a game is to be the best. .500 is average, it won’t get us to the playoffs. It won’t bring home any World Series. It will give us a few years of, “if we just sign this, we’ll be solid.” While we continue the floor continues to rot out from under us. I guess thinking we could be a good team for 82 games before reality sets in would have it’s perks. But don’t you think the pill would just get harder to swallow if you new that we had gone all in once again and now we were totally bankrupt?

Crucify me if you want to. I’ll play the villain, but I’m not. I’m taking a cool, objective view of the situation. I presented the BEST possible outcome. What you guys are advocating and rooting for, will lead us nowhere, but further ruin and despair. If that’s being a true fan, I want none of that. In the end, I guess I’m just not the true fan, whatever that means.

What you guys are advocating and rooting for, will lead us nowhere, but further ruin and despair.

That is not what I call a “cool, objective” evaluation. People can have different opinions about how to get from point X to point Y. There is no way to prove or verify that one approach will lead to ruin and despair and the other will lead to a cornucopia of pennants. My guess is that multiple different paths could lead to a pennant contender if they are executed well and have some good luck. And that none of them would lead to pennant contention, if they are executed poorly and face a lot of bad luck.