Looking at next year...minor and major league players
This isn't really about anything we don't already know. But I wanted to bring a couple of points to your attention and see if anyone wants to comment on them.
Farm System
The Austin American Statesman has a feature article on the talent level problems in the Astros' farm system. As I said, nothing we don't already know, but it's not a bad piece and sometimes it is worth reading a baseball article from a newspaper other than the Chronicle. An on-line version of the article is here. I find it interesting that Astros farm system maven, Ricky Bennett, and Astros manager Cecil Cooper seem to have contradictory opinions. Bennett says he tends to be conservative rather than moving minor leaguers through the system fast. Cooper says he favors pushing minor leaguers through the system quickly, but adds that the system has to have some talent to push.
One of the fanposts featured an article by John Sickles on the state of the Astros' top 10 prospects, but it was of limited value since it was based on the 2007 top 10 list, several of whom have been traded. Joe in Birmingham commented that he would like to see a top 10 listing of Astros prospects for 2008. Interestingly the Statesman print version of the article, above, included a side bar with a top 10 listing for both 2007 and 2008. Unfortunately, this side bar doesn't appear to be on the net.
The Statesman compiled the 2008 listing, it said, based on discussions with Astros' management, coaches, and scouts. I won't re-print everything stated on the listings, but here is the Statesman's top 10 list of Astros prospects:
1. Chris Johnson, 3b
2. Felipe Paulino, pitcher
3. Tommy Manzella, shortstop
4. Bud Norris, Pitcher
5. Brad James, Pitcher
6. Brian Bogusevic, outfielder
7. Sergio Perez, pitcher
8. Lou Santangelo, catcher
9. Jason Castro, catcher
10.Jordan Lyles, pitcher
(Others: Iorg OF; Sutton 2b; Maysonnet, SS)
The first three players are in AAA, even though Johnson and Manzella haven't been hitting well and Paulino has been injured. The nos. 9 and 10 players are new to the system, since they were just drafted and signed this summer.
Major League Budget Puzzle
I know an article was written recently on this subject, and I apologize if this seems repetitive. But this should be one of the biggest topics of discussion for Astros' fans as we go into the off-season. We now know two more pieces to the Astros 2009 budget proposal with the new contracts for Erstad and Moehler. So let's go back over some other pieces of the budget.
Let's start with the big dollar players:
Tejada $13 million
Berkman $14.5 million
Oswalt $14 million
Lee $18.5 million
sub total $60 million
Blum, Erstad, and Moehler = $5.95 million
(note that this doesn't include incentives which could add a few miliion
more to the three above.)
Second year of contracts:
Matsui $5 million and Brocail $2.5 million
That's $74.5 million for 9 players so far.
The Astros also have some arbitration eligible players who are likely to have a nice pay increase and become significant contracts:
Valverde (current: 4.7 million...I could see it go to $6 million)
Wigginton (current: $4.35 million...another possible $6 million or higher)
Geary (current 1.25 million, could go to maybe $2.5 million)
If I'm in the ballpark, so to speak, with the above arb eligible players, that amounts to $88 million for 12 players. If the remaining 13 players on the roster only cost 1/2 million apiece, that would put the budget at $95 million...and of course we know some of the remaining players will earn more than that, substantially more in some cases. And I'm not even talking yet about the cost of upgrading the current rotation.
Here are some of the current Astros who will be free agents:
Humberto Quintero
Mark Loretta
David Newhan
Jose Castillo
Reggie Abercrombie
Randy Wolf
LaTroy Hawkins
Tim Byrdak
Runelvys Hernandez
Dave Borkowski
Here are some more arbitration eligible players, and I hesitate to guess what they will earn, but it might be $2 million or so, combined:
Brandon Backe
Wandy Rodriguez
The Astros also have these players under team control, and they are the most likely to fit the $0.5 million range:
Bourn, Pence, Towles, Sampson, Wright, Paulino, Nieve.
If you want to see the current salaries of the players above, you can look here:
I don't know about you, but it seems to me that the Astros may have some significant changes among the existing players if they are intent on finding a way to expand the budget and sign one or more free agent starting pitchers.
Give me your thought on what you think Wade will do? What do you think the Astros budget will be just to maintain the status quo? What will be the budget if Wade is successful in improving the rotation? What should Wade do?
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Comments
It would seem
Tejada or Wiggy are candidates to be moved? And then that still might not be enough. When have they gone above $100 mill besides the last year they had Clemens? Wade said something strange a few weeks ago – that the pitching market was thin this coming off-season. I wonder if that was his way of slowly breaking it to the fans that they won’t be making a big free-agent acquisition? I remember the off-season they signed Carlos, you got the general sense from management that they were absolutely going to go after that big bat. Is it the same this year with pitching (ie Sheets)? Or is it just something we’re assuming? I haven’t been following them that closely in the media this year.
by mokulen on Aug 30, 2008 2:57 PM CDT 0 recs
you make some good points.
I agree that the talk about signing pitchers hasn’t come from the Astros (except for the players, like Roy O and Berkman). So, you could be right that we are all making assumptions about Drayton raising the payroll to acquire a big FA starting pitcher. In my case, I am just following the logic, which seems to indicate to me that McLane has painted himself into a corner…if he wants to legitimately say that he is pursuing a playoff spot. I think the comments by Berkman and Oswalt about pushing for a Sheets signing probably bode well.
by clack on
Aug 30, 2008 5:38 PM CDT
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I think the budget is just going to have to increase
Drayton will have to treat this as a tax on incompetence and bad decision making in prior drafts. Perhaps we could trade Wiggy at his full value right now, and use Blum to fill in for a half a season until Chris Johnson gets some more seasoning? That would cut a few million out of the budget. Wiggy could certainly be a good fit for some teams that are just waiting for a year or two win their farm system matures.
Or we could just drop the dream of Sheets and try and find some value out there on the free agent market.
I get the feeling that Drayton will just open up his pocket book a little more. Which, ultimately I think he owes the Houston fans.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Aug 30, 2008 2:58 PM CDT 0 recs
I like the concept that the Astros would be paying a tax on incompetence...
clever way to put it.
by clack on
Aug 30, 2008 5:40 PM CDT
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I don't trust Wade to make any trade with Wiggy
He’s the guy that tried to trade away Ryan Howard. It’s possible he’ll get something good for Wigginton, but he’ll probably screw it up. I’d trust him to make a salary dump trade with Tejada, but that’s about all.
I’ve said it before – just wait to the end of the season with Wigginton and Tejada. Offer them arbitration, and hope they leave. We’ll probably get better results out of the draft, anyways.
The problem is that, if you open up the salary for next year, you’re doing it (probably) for pitching. Even IF we grab two really good pitchers, the Astros still have MAJOR hitting issues to work out. If Hunter and Miggy rebound, then we’re in business. If JR Towles comes up and can hit, then we can really compete.
But if those things don’t happen, then we’re at 2005-level offense. And the only way we got to the WS that year was by luck and having the best starting rotation in baseball. That won’t happen again. Berkman and Carlos can’t carry the team next year, even if we have killer pitching.
And Sheets is one of the riskiest FA pitchers out there. The good news is that Coop likes to jump the gun on his starters (that one time with Roy excepted, of course), so Sheets might fair better in Houston.
The Astros are looking at expanding the payroll past the $130 million mark if they want to compete next year. I don’t think Drayton is going to do that. What’s more, I don’t think the Astros can continue to mortgage their future like that.
At the same time, Berkman, Roy, and Carlos only have so many good years left. If we really want to compete with those guys, we have to do it sooner rather than later.
If they’re going to do it, though, it’s going to cost a hell of a lot of cash.
by Only_A_Lad on Aug 30, 2008 4:01 PM CDT 0 recs
I don't think our offense is a problem
the problem with our offense this season is that multiple players decided to under perform at the same time… multiple times this season. I’m not saying the Astros are going to be the same team that put up 6 runs in the 1st inning yesterday(Saturday)… but I think they are good enough with a better rotation to make this team a contender
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Aug 31, 2008 11:07 AM CDT
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I wish I could be that optimistic about the offense.
The offense this season is on track to score approximately the same number of runs as last year. After all the changes which were made, the results point to little or no improvement on offense. I agree that there are some events we can “hope” for next year which might make us believe the offense can get better: Tejada rebounds, Bourn and/or Towles learns how to hit, Matsui learns how to stay healthy. However, I have this nagging suspicion that the offense is poorly constructed with too many similar players and not enough OBP type players…and this leads to extreme streakiness. I don’t have much choice but to go for the “hope” route.
by clack on
Aug 31, 2008 5:57 PM CDT
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Well said.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 31, 2008 8:58 PM CDT
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That's "Tommy" Manzella
Saw a lot of him and Bogusevic when I used to go to every Tulane game while a student there. I’ll be at the Express game tomorrow night; maybe I’ll take along a scorecard or two and see if he’ll sign them.
by Xan on Aug 30, 2008 11:58 PM CDT 0 recs















