The Astros' Playoff Picture
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 24, 2008 9:21 PM CDT
14 comments
This will lack any kind of analysis or merit on my part, it's simply here to inform.
Those are the standings.
Here are the odds:
| Report | NL Central Champs | NL Wild Card | Playoffs |
| BPro Playoff Odds |
.0015% | .0884% | .0899% |
| BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds |
.00062% | .06954% | .07016% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds |
.00751% | .2439% | .25141% |
| Cool Standings Odds |
>1% | 1% | 1% |
These standings don't reflect today's action. I'll try and find the gumption to edit it tomorrow when the reports are run again.
You get to get in on the analysis:
EDIT: I just realized I should ask for some commentary on why you chose what you chose or if you don't see anything you like, tell me I'm an idiot and tell me what I forgot to add.
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I'll go first
I chose the Middle Tier SP. It took me awhile to decide what I picked it. I think I did it to be “different,” but I think I can add some sense to it. If we don’t spend all our money in one place, that leaves us the option to maybe find that guy who can platoon with Bourn and Erstad, though I don’t know who it would be, but maybe Rocco Baldeli. It would be a good fit I think, because it would cut down on his playing time and give us a read platoon.
So there you go, I broke the ice.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 24, 2008 10:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It should read
"It took me awhile to decide why I picked it.
Also, I think we can squeeze more wins out of kicking the weakest link out of the rotation with a middle-tier guy who adds another 1-2 wins above what we’ve run out there this year and then we maximize the platoon advantage for another 3-4 wins above what we’ve had this year. Versus the 3-4 wins we could singularly add from a top-tier SP.
However, if Drayton will take the Top-tier and a platoon CF, then I’d much rather have that. Then I think we’d be a big time contender.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 24, 2008 10:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted top-tier pitching
but I think a good middle-tier pitcher should hold up for us. Jon Garland was the one we SHOULD have got (if it hadn’t been for that physical), and as long as he doesn’t become a Jennings, he’s the #2 guy we’ve needed.
by jonthefon on Aug 25, 2008 1:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
Garland is enough to turn this ship around… If we’re going to go at next season half-assed, then we might as well just consider it a rebuilding year and save our money.
We’ve pretty much had this same topic a lot recently and I think most of us have already stated what we think should be done recently.
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on Aug 25, 2008 6:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry...
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 25, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AMEN
Damn you Tim.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 25, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are plenty of options in the FA market for pitching.
Garland, Sheets, Sabathia, Lackey (probably), and Burnett all will be on the market this winter.
The problem is that this organization has many more problems than can be solved via free agency. The farm system is better than it was last year, but our best prospects (other than Bogusevic) are going to be in Rookie and single A for at least another season or two.
By going after FA pitching, all the Astros are going to be doing is losing more draft picks. If we can trade Tejada (or if we think he’ll still be a Type A FA after 2009) then we MIGHT be able to get a good prospect from another team. More importantly, it will free up $14 million that can be invested in player development.
Wiggy is also a judgement call. If this is Ty’s true form (and it may be – his BABIP has been constant for the last several years and his increase in OBP seems to be linked to an increase in BB% and maybe pitch selection; all of that should hold from year to year), then we can reasonably expect him to be at least a Type B FA in 2009.
So after the 2009 season, we can offer Wigginton, Miggy, and Valverde arbitration. Hopefully, they will realize that they can get better money elsewhere, and will decline. We will then (at best) get a total of SIX first-round and supplemental picks. More reasonably, we could expect maybe one or two extra first round picks, three supplemental picks, and one or two second round picks. That might be better than trading for prospects, particularly if Drayton invests the savings from the cut payroll in the draft.
Even if we go out and grab the best pitchers on the FA market next year (Sabathia and Lackey), then we’re still in a MASSIVE hole with the offense. Unless Hunter and Bourn improve, Lance and Carlos have similar years, Roy rebounds, and Tejada suddenly finds the plate discipline he has lacked his whole career, the Astros will still be a very weak team.
by Only_A_Lad on Aug 25, 2008 7:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Man
That was some good analysis.
Though, be careful, stating that you’re worried about losing draft picks is dangerous thing here.
My response, though, would be to point out that all of the compensation picks that we’re looking for in Valverde, Tejdada, and Wiggy won’t come until after next year. If we acquire a few FA it might not be all bad, because we’re still at the cusp of having our first round pick protected. It’s still hard to say, but we’re looking at a pretty big draft in 2009. If the organization anticipates this and is willing to spend accordingly, we might as well swing for the fences one last time.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 25, 2008 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for the first item (FA pitching ace)...but I really like a combination of
alternatives. I think the second item (mid-level FA pitchers) is a reasonable option and I would make it my back up plan if Sheets turns out to be too costly. But I would consider combining that with the last option, trading either Wiggy or Tejada, if the return is good and decent replacements can be found. That may save some money to bolster the lineup, for instance by picking up a FA RH CF platoon candidate like Reed Johnson.
As far as losing draft picks by signing Sheets or Sabbathia, I think that can be offset if the Astros lose 1 or more Type B FA’s (candidates: Byrdak, Wolf, Loretta, Moehler). The supplemental picks are almost as good as the high 1st round choices, particularly since the Astros seem to draft for signability, even when they have a high pick (like this year).
by clack on Aug 25, 2008 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So true
As far as losing draft picks by signing Sheets or Sabbathia, I think that can be offset if the Astros lose 1 or more Type B FA’s (candidates: Byrdak, Wolf, Loretta, Moehler). The supplemental picks are almost as good as the high 1st round choices, particularly since the Astros seem to draft for signability, even when they have a high pick (like this year).
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 25, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Astros goal should be
Add some high profile and under the radar guys that as a team (taking into account certain to occur but specifically unknown injuries (except we know Matsui will be injured a few times) ) will make the playoffs and contend for the World Series championship, while developing the most productive minor league system in baseball.
That’s what the Astros should do. I’ll leave the details to others while I develop a one-sentence solution to the problems in Iraq.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 25, 2008 3:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe we should trade for pelfrey??
good God.
by Evan Hochschild on Aug 25, 2008 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For serious.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 25, 2008 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought about that idea last off-season.
And it would have been the right time to trade for Pelfrey. He came off a disappointing rookie season, and he might have been available. I doubt that he will be available this off-season. He has put up a good season and saved the Mets playoff hopes. The Mets will be looking to keep decent and cheap help for their rotation now.
I’ll throw out another idea…not really advocating it, just thinking out loud. The Mets’ Oliver Perez will be a free agent this off-season. Assuming the Mets don’t re-sign him, is he a possible lessor tier free agent that the Astros should consider? The upside is that he is still young, lefthanded, and has great potential. The downside is his erratic career and the possibility that he is a head case. I think Perez requires a really good pitching coach. Can the Astros provide that? If he is too expensive, I wouldn’t try to sign him…too much risk to pay out top dollar.
by clack on Aug 27, 2008 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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