Houston Astros - Playoff Chances
by Stros Bro
on Aug 14, 2008 8:18 PM CDT
These numbers come directly form www.baseballprospectus.com. How they got these numbers is by running a simulation of the final games of the season 1 million times and taking the stats from that simulation.
If the percentages from that simulation are accurate, then the Astros have...
- .00958% chance to be the NL Champions
- .38338% chance to be the Wild Card Champions
- .39296% chance to make the playoffs
So basically what it's saying is the chances of us making the playoffs are slim... SEE THIS IS WHY I'M NOT A STATS GUY!!!!!! Well, this isn't really a stats thing... more of a probability thing... but you get my point.
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If BP's schedule adjusted calculation is used...
the Astros’ playoff odds go all the way up to 1.6%. :)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddselo.php
If by some chance, the Astros take 2 or 3 from the D-Backs this weekend and then sweep the Brewers after that, it would be interesting to see how much their odds improve. The odds percentages can change fairly quickly. Of course, that would be a tough scenario for the Astros to achieve. The Astros face Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson this weekend, followed by Sabbathia and Sheets next week. I suppose we can say that these next two series could spell the end of any contention hopes…or keep the flicker of hope alive if the Astros find a way to get past those imposing pitchers.
by clack on Aug 14, 2008 8:36 PM CDT 0 recs
By the way, Jake Peavy beat Ben Sheets, breaking the Brewers win streak today.
That means the Astros finally gained a game on the Brewers.
by clack on
Aug 14, 2008 8:39 PM CDT
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If we win 2 series in a row
in which we face Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson(albeit.. not the younger version), CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets… I’ll be ecstatic.
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Aug 14, 2008 8:40 PM CDT
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The ELO are notoriously terrible
I can’t find the Mitchell Litchman critique online, but it they really picked apart the ELO odds I recall.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 14, 2008 9:05 PM CDT
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ELO may be flawed....I have no idea, one way or other.
But the failure to account for schedule is a huge gaping flaw in the other two BP playoff odds calculations.
by clack on
Aug 14, 2008 9:53 PM CDT
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This is true
And I wish I could find the article (believe me, I’ve been trying) but they don’t leverage the strength of schedule very well. As I recall Litchman find a big flaw with it. In ELO’s defense (I wish I could find the article…I’ve tried every google skill I have), it was determined to be slightly less flawed than the other two.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 14, 2008 10:01 PM CDT
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Nothing is really going to be able to gauge
both strength of schedule and how hot a team is at the time of the figures… How hot a team is (IMO) means more than strength of schedule…
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Aug 14, 2008 10:05 PM CDT
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Hot Streaks are just that, streaks.
They last for ten games or so…they usually correspond with playing bad teams or facing bad pitching. I think the strength of schedule accurately gauges a teams ability to be “streaky.”
That said, we’ve picked up our one game. The next 8 games though, IMO will be the truth sooth-sayers in our ability to remain relevant in the hunt, or just try and play the spoiler role. We also have to remain conscious of the Cards, who will get Wainwright back in week-ish.
We took 8 games from some bad teams, I’m a thrilled as anybody, but we should try and maintain a modicum of perspective.
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Aug 14, 2008 11:44 PM CDT
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Ausmus is key
If Ausmus can play the games v.s. randy, webb, sheets, and cc…and hit liners at them and force them out of the game, then we will be fine…well in all seriousness, i think we can beat brandon Webb bcz. i’m leaning on Wandy pitching a gem so all the stros need to do is score 3-4 runs…randy has been pretty good this year but i think we can still beat him w/ oswalt on the mound. then if somehow we can get CC out of the game maybe by taking lots f pitches and forcing him out after 6, then we can win that one bcz. that MLW bullpen isnt that great….and hopefully Sheets we can do the same!
WE CAN DO THIS…after the MLW series it’ll be 14 in a row!
by gettinziggywithit on Aug 15, 2008 10:18 AM CDT 0 recs
so you're saying there's a chance!
we rocked the Big Unit the only time we saw his this year, tallying 6 ER in 4IP back on April 30th. of course that was the game we lost when Borks yielded a 2-run bomb to Micah Owings. sorry to dredge that up. we haven’t faced Webb this year, and he owned us last year, so that’ll be a tough one. we’ve got home-Wandy going for us, though. as for Sheets, well, we at least hit him better than the rest of the league. his ERA against us this year is 3.27 vs. 3.00 on the season. and we’ve got four guys that have career OPS’s over 1.000 against him, including David Newhan who hit a homer in his only AB against him (Erstad, Wiggy, and Berkman are the others).
these will certainly be two critical series. hopefully we can keep up this momentum and inch a little closer to respectability.
by littlevisigoth on Aug 15, 2008 11:00 AM CDT 0 recs
ESPN says Astros have about 1 chance in 70 to make the playoffs
As I recall, about a month ago it was 1 chance in 500.
Really, what it’ll take is a great 3 week run right between now and about September 5 by th Astros and a major slip-up by the Brewers. Everyone else can be passed.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 15, 2008 2:13 PM CDT 0 recs
the problem with the wildcard isn't the Brewers
its that you also have to finish ahead of the Cards, Marlins, Phillies or Mets, and D-Backs or Dodgers.
Having said that, if you guys win the wildcard, I’m going to need something a lot zippier than Dr. Pepper to deal with it.
by ol Pete on Aug 15, 2008 3:58 PM CDT 0 recs
If we win the wildcard,
I’ll mail you a bottle of champagne.
75% of the Earth's surface is covered by water. . . the other 25% by Michael Bourn
by Danyah on
Aug 16, 2008 8:38 AM CDT
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
97 | 64 | .602 | 0 | Lost 4 |
|
Milwaukee
|
90 | 72 | .555 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
86 | 75 | .534 | 11 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
86 | 76 | .530 | 11.5 | Won 6 |
|
Cincinnati
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 23.5 | Lost 5 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
67 | 95 | .413 | 30.5 | Won 1 |
(updated 11.18.2008 at 4:56 PM CST)
