it’s been killing me all year that they’ve been around 10+ games over .500, but i’ve come to accept that at least for now they’re for real.

I think that success is somewhat a fluke, given career years from ludwick, schumaker, wellenmeyer, lohse. i hope they sign some of those guys to bad contracts that will hopefully weigh them down.

however, as much as I’d love to see it, I don’t foresee them having a crash and us having a run that would allow us to pass.

we’ve had a nice run over the past 40ish games (numbers are off the top of my head), but it seems to me that it’s been borne along on the back of some above average performances like our earlier run this year was. Before it was Berkman’s outrageously awesome May. Now it’s Carlos’ excellent June & July.

Unfortunately Carlos’ run is at an end and while I expect Puma to come on stronger, asking for another may would be asking a whole lot.

If the Brewers play .500 baseball over the last 45 games though, they’d win 22 or 23, losing the either 22 or 23. So if we want to beat them, we have to win 9 games more than that. That’d would mean we’d have to go 31-14 or 32-13. .689 or .711 winning percentage over a 45 game period. Down a slugger, I just don’t see where that is going to come from, given that we can’t ever tell what our starting pitching will provide.

Stranger things have happened, but they usually happen to teams with more talent.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/tgl.cgi?share=1&team=HOU&year=2008&t=b#73:117:sum

That’s a link to our last 45 games. We’re 25-20 in that span. Inewcomer correctly mentioned that we’ve played some pretty good baseball in that time. We have indeed. .556 winning percentages are nothing to scoff at, but we’re going to need some kind of performance to find six or seven more games in our last 45. If the Astros aren’t willing to budge on Bonds, I don’t see how we’re going to be able to create that kind of a “spark” with what we have on the field.

1) Anybody remember the St. Louis Cardinals? We’d have to catch them too.
2) ESPN and BP have the Astros chances (as of today) of making the WC at 7 in 1000 and their chances of winning the division at 1 in 1000.

Stranger things have happened … but don’t bet the mortgage on it!

What are you spiking that DP with? I agreed with DQuail’s post about the ‘Stros being lucky to be as close as they are.

I wish it we had a shot, but don’t believe we do.

On the other hand, if we make it to the playoffs, I will buy you a case of Dr. Pepper.

You would think if Backe can hold the Giants to 1 run, Roy can hold them to none. That’s what we are gonna need tonight.

Astros are a long shot for the WC, but they are in contention for it. Two weeks ago, saying they are in contention for the WC was close to irrational, and it’s interesting that in the short period since then the Astros’ position has improved enough that it’s not outside of reason to suggest that they have a chance, albeit not a real good one. I have been saying all year that the Astros are fundamentally a .500 team and the chances are good that they would have a record in that range. So, I’m not suprised that they have reached .500, and it’s not likely that they will surpass that by a lot. But, having reached .500, they have put themselves within one big winning streak of possibly getting in the playoffs. Is it likely? No, but it’s not something that would be shocking if it occurred. All it takes is for Berkman or Erstad or Tejada to get extremely hot, and the Astros won’t miss Lee that much. Again, not probable, but not earth shattering possibilities either.

It would be one of the greatest come backs (statistically of all time).

“I’ll have whatever you guys are having!”

Could you please give me the specific names of the compounds and fluids you are ingesting that have led you to this insanity?

Leaving those pesky Cardinals out of the picture, if Milwaukee plays .500 ball the rest of the way, Houston will have to play better than .700 ball to overtake them.

I called the Commissioner’s office this morning and begged them for over an hour, but they aren’t going to let the Astros play the rest of their games against the Reds and the Giants. Damn!