Buyers or Sellers?

...and here is my explanation.

I think a fire sale is a bad idea…we don’t need to start from scratch…some of the big contracts we have (Roy and Lance, particularly) would be nearly impossible to replace on the free agent market, and any trade for minor leaguers is essentially investing in lottery tickets. Yeah, there’s a good chance that , with quality scouting, we could trade for guys who have incredible value as big league players a couple of years down the road. But there’s also the chance that the Baseball Gods decide to even out the karma from the Jeff Bagwell-Larry Anderson trade by giving us two Tommy Johns and a Mario Mendoza in exchange for Lance Berkman.

Further, the big names on our team that could reap a good sized harvest are the “Faces of the Franchise”. Berkman, Oswalt, Lee, Pence. And even Tejada has some drawing power. We need these kinds of players still so that fans have a reason to stay attached to the team and keep spending money. People enjoy watching Berkman and Pence, etc., and will go spend money to see them. If we sell off the popular players, it makes it easier for people to drift away from the ‘Stros and decide that they’d rather spend their money elsewhere. And if we’re going to try to stay afloat through free agent signings while fixing the farm, the team is going to need that money

But staying put isn’t the way to go either. It’s clearly not working for us right now. One thing Ed Wade has done a good job of is finding utility/bench players. It is entirely possible that a team with a shot at the post-season might give up a solid (but not exceptional) minor leaguer or two in exchange for a Loretta + Brocail or Byrdak + Erstad. What I’d be shooting for if I were GM would be finding a trading partner who needs to fill some holes with solid (but not exceptional) big league players this season and trade off the players on our club that won’t fit into the Astros’ long-term plans. In exchange, I’d be looking for players that the other team can’t bring up in time to help them this year, but who might be able to give our club some minor league depth for 2009, 2010, 2011.

I’ve always considered Ed Wade’s job, first and foremost, to be reforming the farm without tanking the profitability of the big-league club. And we do that by trading away solid players with predictable performance who we don’t think will be with us in 2010 and try to strike it rich on the returns. It doesn’t make for exciting baseball right now, maybe, but this club has too many problems to fix all at once, and the post-season dreams of the big league club might have to take a backseat to some other things right now.

In short, yes, I’d rather see the rotten team they have now than the even more rotten team they’d have if they traded away their biggest names. That’s because I still watch even when the team isn’t winning. I do this because I’ve grown attached to some of the players. When I miss watching/listening to the games, I like checking the boxscores to see if Lance is any closer to a Triple Crown (and yes, I know it’s early to be talking about that, but it’s still fun to think about). I love those rare occasions when Home Wandy shows up on the road. It’s fun to watch Hunter Pence get more excited than my aunt’s hyperactive golden retriever. I don’t really care pay much attention to what Blum and Loretta do. I’m certainly happy when they do well and help out the team, but they’re not the reason I watch. And I’m sure a lot of other fans are the same way. And if you think Drayton is cheap now, how tight do you think he’ll get if fans stopped filling seats. That’s what I think would happen if we got rid of our big-contract players.

I took a “fire sale” to mean that they were getting rid of a lot (read: more than two, possibly all) of our big players. If they had to start eating into what Wade would call the “team’s nucleus”, I’d rather see them do it in a last-hired-first-fired fashion…specifically Tejada first, then Lee. I’d cringe a whole lot to see Roy O. go, and Berkman would almost feel like a betrayal, even if we were getting a few Tim Beckhams in return. I think losing a big contract would probably be good for us in the long run (Tejada and Lee, I’m looking at you), but a fire sale just alienates fans. I’m willing to make sacrifices to get better, I just think starting from scratch is a bad idea.

So, I would stand pat and work on a plan for the off-season. Having said that, I might consider trading Loretta, Erstad, Blum, or Wigginton for decent pitching if it becomes available at the trade deadline (which is unlikely). None of those four players will return anything like a high level prospect, but they might bring back another major league player. Really, the Astros are pretty much handcuffed at rebuilding through the trade route. Pence, Oswalt, Berkman, Tejada, and Lee are the valuable players. Tejada is mired in a slump which decreases his value, and McLane loves him too much to trade him anyway. Lee’s contract decreases his value, and (if you believe the HC’s Ortiz) he would never approve a trade. Berkman will only play in Texas, and is unlikely to be tradeable. And I wouldn’t be willing to trade Oswalt unless the Astros got high level ML-ready pitching prospects (like Phil Hughes or Clay Buchholz) in return, and the Twins didn’t succeed in getting that for Santana. I might consider trading Pence for an extraordinary return, but really he probably is not at a high point of his value. When you get past all of that, you really are talking about trading around the fringes.

I used to have extreme distaste for the idea of a fire sale, but seeing the Astros where they are with the potential they have is just depressing. Additionally, the heavyweights of the team are starting to age.

With that in mind, I’m mentally resigned to the rebuild. McLane tried to make the transition from the Biggio/Bagwell era to a new one with Oswalt/Berkman, but it obviously never materialized. We had above average pitchers (Clemens, Pettitte) and hitters (Tejada, Lee), but were unable to pull it off.

The money squandered… The bad trades… The missed draft picks… If you start adding up the scenarios in your head, the gaffes are high in number. (as a start: Bagwell insurance, Clemens price tag, Jennings trade, Clemens/Pettitte draft picks, Woody Williams)

At some point you have to cut your losses. McLane’s not going to be able to spend his way out of this slump unless he puts the Astros in the top five salaries of MLB and commits to that for years to come.

In my mind, everybody but Berkman should be seriously considered for the auction block.

I like the idea of trading to teams with good minor league prospects, but I do agree that greater bounty can be had at the end of the season. That being said, we should try to score a few lopsided trades with some of the contender teams before August, if they can be had.

Enough’s enough. I don’t want to see the Astros like the Pirates for the next several years. Let’s take the pain now and get it behind us.

The Astros suck and they will continue to suck for the next two or three years. What matters - the only thing that matters - is bringing the farm system back to life. We can get good AA AAA prospects using rule 5, so make the trades for class A prospects and draft picks.