BaseballProspectus.com Free Week - Roy's Injury

I'm sure most people around here are aware of BaseballProspectus.com, but I noticed that this week they're posting all their articles for free. One of the reasons I enjoy my subscription is for Will Carroll's injury updates. He has tons of sources and has spent a lot of time digging into the details of why injuries happen and how long it takes to rehabilitate them. Here's his take on Oswalt:

Roy Oswalt (30 DXL)
What the Astros are saying and what the medical information tells us about Oswalt are two different things. Oswalt was responsible for trying to pitch through what was thought to be just a mild hip strain, but beyond this muscle injury, Oswalt also has a disc problem in his lower back that's causing some radiating pain down into his leg. Cecil Cooper continues to give blank quotes about Oswalt getting on the mound, but this one is going to take longer than most are saying. Oswalt always pitches—and pitches well—through injury, but when he's shut down, that means that it's serious enough that the medical staff is, as one put it, "blocking the exits." Look for Oswalt to push to come back early, and with the Astros insisting that they're not out of the race, they'll probably let him. Considering how bad he looked in his last one-inning stint, that's not going to be pretty.

Fausto Carmona (60 DXL)
For some idea on how long just a hip adductor strain can keep someone out, the Astros need only look to Carmona. He's finally back on a mound after nearly two months on the shelf. Carmona had a mild setback along the way, though the Indians record has guided their pace as well. Carmona will throw on the side Monday in Anaheim in front of Eric Wedge and Lonnie Soloff after his rehab start went well over the weekend. He could be back in the rotation immediately, which would slot him in Friday, or given his performance at Double-A, they could elect to give him one more minor league start. One observer at that game in Akron said that Carmona didn't look to be pitching much, just trying to get in his work. We'll have a solid idea by this time tomorrow. Carmona likely won't get many wins, but he has a chance to put in 9-10 starts before the end of the season, returning some value to those that drafted him high.

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