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Lineup Strategy

If I was the manager of a major league team, I would set my lineup using a very simple formula.  That formula looks somethiing like this.

  1. Best OBP guy(unless that guys is 1st or 2nd in OPS)
  2. 2nd best OBP guy(unless that guys is 1st or 2nd in OPS)
  3. Best OPS guy
  4. 2nd best OPS guy
  5. 3rd best OPS guy
  6. 4th best OPS guy
  7. 5th best OPS guy
  8. 6th best OPS guy
  9. Pitcher

Pretty simple... I'd find the 8 players I'm going to play on that day, and then user the numbers to fill out my lineup card.  If I used this strategy, the Astros lineup would look like this.

  1. Ty Wigginton - .370 OBP, 2nd on the team only to Berkman's .447
  2. Kazuo Matsui - .336 OBP(actually Erstad is higher, but I'm not including him since he's considered a bench player)
  3. Lance Berkman - Highest OBP and OPS on the team with .447 OBP and a 1.143 OPS
  4. Carlos Lee - 2nd highest OPS at .848
  5. Miguel Tejada - .776 OPS(Wigginton actually has the 3rd best OPS at .820)
  6. Hunter Pence - .748 OPS
  7. Michael Bourn - .608 OPS
  8. Whoever the catcher is...  Towles, Ausmus and Quintero all are withing .011 in OPS ranging from .541 to .552)
  9. Pitcher

This is actually pretty close to the way I would make out the lineup anyways without even looking at the numbers... obviously Wigginton hitting leadoff isn't very typical... but he's the only player on the team besides Berkman that gets on base anywhere close to what I expect out of my leadoff hitter. 

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That line up

Is not a whole lot different that what we’d be using now since Coop’s line up change (assuming Kaz was healthy) except that you are swapping Bourn and Wiggy.

And you’re making that line up based on what the players have done for the entire year. Or rather, an average of what they have done. Don’t you think it would be more productive to follow trends and work with how the player has done in the past 30 days or something?

And how do you set your line up at the beginning of the year? Based on last year’s performance? Certainly Towles would have been much higher in your line up than eighth. Or do you use spring training numbers? That would be more realistic, but then many times we are hitting against AAA players looking for a job on a Major League team. At least later in games when veteran starting position players are likely to be out and younger starters (Like Pence and Bourn) are likely to be in. Woldn’t that artificially inflate the younger players’ stats?

And it also doesn’t account for base running. Shouldn’t the guy most likely to score from 1st on a double be hitting one or two spots in front of the guy most likely to hit a double? And what about guy’s base stealing abilities? If he steals a base 10% or 20% of the time he gets on base with a single or double, shouldn’t that make him more valuable in front of guys with high batting average and not exactly OBP? That is to say, if Bourn hits a double and steals third.. would you rather a .300 hitter with a .330 OBP next or a .270 hitter with a .360 OBP next? And regardless of who you pick, wouldn’t you like a guy that can turn a single into a double and a double into a triple be on base in front of your best hitters? A walk is fine, but it doesn’t advance the runners (who are not on first) and OBP is essentially AVG + Walks.

I didn’t mean to go so much into it. I just meant to write that first line and the words just started flowing.. But I don’t think making a line up is as easy as just putting the people with high OBP at the top.

by entropic soul on Jun 29, 2008 2:08 AM CDT   0 recs

heheh

I thought it was kind of cool that me blindly making up the formula, turned out to be almost exactly what we are using…

It’s not a perfect system and honestly I haven’t thought every detail out… I wouldn’t use Spring training stats because they are pretty much pointless. To start the season it would probably be more of a what did you do last season… obviously it’s hard to do if you have rookies who have never played in the MLB or for players like Towles who have only played for a little while(and then tore it up when they were here).

Concerning baserunning… obviously Bourn has the best chance to score from 1st on a double on the team so it would be a benefit to have him higher in the lineup… but… I’d rather have a guy who is actually going to be on base when that double is hit… also(using the current lineup), Wigginton has a much greater chance at hitting a double to lead off than Bourn would… Bourn just doesn’t get on base enough for his speed to make up for it.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Jun 29, 2008 8:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

base stealer

I’ve never seen the point of batting the base stealer first, when that means that very often he will be held because the 3rd or 4th hitter is up. The Big Red Machine used to have Cesar Geronimo in the 8th spot with very good results. He gets to second to avoid the double play and can be driven in by the high OBP leadoff (Rose).

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Jun 30, 2008 1:06 AM CDT   0 recs

Bottom of the Order

In my mind, the point of stealing bases is to score a run off a double or a well placed single. If the base stealer is at the bottom of the order as you say (#8), he will be relying on those singles and doubles coming from the #9 through #2 slots.

That #9 slot is problematic for this kind of strategy, because it relies on the pitcher or a pinch hitter most of the times, which will statistically diminish his chances of using his stealing skills to score runs. I think that if you were going to do this, you could modify LaRussa’s strategy with putting pitcher at #8 and putting the base stealer at #9.

None of this matters, of course, if the base stealer happens to be a high OBP/OPS guy and deserves a slot in the top of the order by virtue of that stat. Which is why I think managers prefer high OBP + base stealers for the #1 slot so that they get two for the price of one.

But in a Bourn situation where he’s struggling but still has marketable base stealing skills, perhaps putting him in the #9 slot would be a good idea versus going down to the minors or perhaps wasting his stealing skills by putting him in front of Quintero/Ausmus and pitcher slot. Then, Stros Bro could have Wiggy in the #1 slot like he wanted :)

by pel on Jun 30, 2008 10:47 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Bourn/Masui to bat 9th

With Wiggy hitting 1st. And the other to bat second.
That way you still have the better OBP with more at bats but some power behind the guy hitting 9th if he does get one. I think it is more important for the guy with the better OBP to bat first and therefore to get more PA than to have a fast guy who would be on base significantly less. If the OBPs are close then it get debatable. And if Wiggy is on then Matsui/Bourn (however hit second) can swing away because they are very hard to double up – and it would keep my blood pressure down.

My friends suggested I see someone about my baseball problem. So I made an appointment but just ended up helping the doctor with his fantasy team.

by TBurford on Jun 30, 2008 4:54 PM CDT   0 recs

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