Astros Win... Finally
by Stros Bro
on Jun 20, 2008 9:56 PM CDT
Well... we won... and we did so behind a nice outing by Roy Oswalt against a very good team in the Tampa Bay Rays. It seems kind of odd to put the words "very good" and "Tampa Bay Rays" in the same sentence, but that is exactly what has happened this year. Since the Rays (formally Devil Rays) were created in 1998, they have never had a winning season. Heck, they've never had a season in which they have lost less than 91 games. Their best season ever was in 2004 when they finished 4th in the AL East with a 70-91 record under Lou Piniella. But finally(with the help of ex-Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker), the Rays are a good team with some very good young talent and actually look to have a future. They are even in the works of getting a new field to replace the pathetic Tropicana Field they currently play in. This season, with all of their young talent, they have started out the season 43-30 and currently sit just 2 games behind the AL East leading Boston Red Sox.
Anyways... back to the Astros. We WON!! YAY! It's been so long. I can't actually remember the last time we won... I can't remember the last team we beat without looking at the schedule. Ok, I just looked at the schedule... we beat the Brewers 6-1 at home on June 10th.
So what do we think of Roy O? He was very good tonight, giving up just 2 runs over 7 2/3 innings while striking out 5 and walking 2. He's lowered his ERA in each of his last 5 starts(not saying a whole lot, his ERA was up to 5.61) and currently sits under 5 for the first time this season(4.84). Hopefully this is more proof that he's returning to his old self and becoming the dominant ace that he used to be... only time will tell for that though.
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To those of you who voted that the Astros will finish 1 or 2
in the division, I applaud your loyalty and your ability to see the bright side of a plane crash.
The numbers just don’t support that likelihood. While anything is possible, it now looks like at least 90 wins will be needed to finish second in the division. However, let’s disregard that and use 85 wins instead.
For the Astros to win 85, they must play .580 percentage ball (currently they are .459) from now on. For the Cubs to only win 85, they must play .443 ball (currently .622) from now on, and the Cardinals .482 (currently .573). Ignoring for the moment the ugly truth that both the Cards and the Cubs are much better than the Astros, the odds against both the Cubs and the Cards finishing with only 85 victories and the Astros surging to 85 are about 11,000 to one against. Considering that both of those teams are better than the Astros raises the odds to about 20,000 to one against.
The even darker side is that those odds don’t consider the outside chances that the Brewers, Reds, and Pirates have of surging to 85 victories, which would add another obstacle to a first or second place Astros finish.
The Astros best shot for improvement is to finish 3rd, but more likely the competition will boil down to besting the Reds and Pirates, with 4th or 5th a more mathematically likely resting place for the Astros when the season ends.
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on Jun 21, 2008 12:54 AM CDT 0 recs
I didn't vote for 1st or 2d place....
but I will rise to the defense of some of those fans who did. (I think I voted for 3d place, if I recall.) This poll was begun a long time ago (my recollection is I voted in late May), and my guess is that most of the 1st/2d place votes were cast earlier when that kind of finish seemed more feasible. Believe or not, the PECOTA playoff odds calculation sometime in mid to late May had the the Astros with a 20%-30% chance of making the playoffs. Now the odds are about 2%. This slump has just killed the Astros.
I agree with you that the Cubs, and perhaps the Cardinals, will make the playoffs. I still don’t count the Brewers out either. Though the Cubs are a good team, I think they are in for some big time regression to the mean in the future. Of course, they could still likely make the playoffs, but they will hit the skids big time, IMO.
by clack on Jun 21, 2008 9:14 AM CDT 0 recs
I hope (and believe) you are right about the Cubs regressing
and when they do I will really enjoy seeing them in a slump, and also seeing Pinnela go ballistic a few times! Even in the very likely case that they make the playoffs, it would be nice to see them in the doldrums just as the season ends.
By the way, Baseball Prospectus has the latest non-PECOTA odds against the Astros making the playoff (released at 4AM this morning) at 377 to 1 against, and the average wins by the NL wild card team at almost 90. They use a simulation model which plays out the season thousands of times (using a proxy much like the old Strat-O-Matic baseball game). Their latest PECOTA (released at the same time) is almost 850 to 1 against the Astros, with the wild card team winning just over 90 games.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php
I use simple binomial probabilities, which are more pessimistic, as they treat each game as an independent event (false) and don’t evaluate the interactions among teams (significant flaw). The Vegas odds are 100 to 1 against the Astros – the gamblers are always ready to take unfair advantage of the public!
In any event, we shouldn’t expect see the Astros in the playoffs this year.
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on
Jun 21, 2008 9:46 AM CDT
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Those are the same odds (non-Pecota) I referenced for BP above....
about 1.7%, which I rounded up to 2%. I like the ELO version of the BP odds, because it takes into account schedule strength…but my recollection is that it doesn’t make the astros’ chances much better. A few weeks ago, the ELO version was the most optimistic odds for the Astros, but the Astros have blown it since then by tanking in their home games.
by clack on
Jun 21, 2008 10:22 AM CDT
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just looked, and the ELO adjusted BP odds (make the playoffs) are 2.3%...
It is just my age showing, are am I the only who thinks “Electric Light Orchestra” when I see the acronym “ELO?”
by clack on
Jun 21, 2008 10:25 AM CDT
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I thought it WAS Electric Light Orchestra
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on
Jun 23, 2008 2:10 PM CDT
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And what's going to happen when...
the Astros win every game this season from here on out?
You guys will sure look silly. :p
by entropic soul on Jun 21, 2008 11:06 AM CDT 0 recs
I've looked a lot sillier than that before
which explains why I don’t bet on those numbers. I’d love to be wrong – but they ain’t makin’ the playoffs!
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on
Jun 23, 2008 2:06 PM CDT
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I selected a 2nd finish
The Cubs have a history of falling apart in the second half, and the Astros have a history of rising to the occasion. Given the demonstrated potential of our offense, we may just be a couple mid-season trades away from righting the ship.
I’m more worried about the Cardinals. And our starting pitching.
The stats are compelling, but they can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Remember the September 2006 run? And it’s still June.
by pel on Jun 21, 2008 12:28 PM CDT 0 recs
I remember the Sept 2006 run
and they didn’t make the playoffs. Or as my father would have said, “That’s a long way to run and still miss the train.”
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on
Jun 23, 2008 2:10 PM CDT
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Friday, Aug 29, 2008, 7:05 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 90. |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
83 | 50 | .624 | 0 | Won 5 |
| Milwaukee
|
77 | 56 | .578 | 6 | Lost 1 |
| St. Louis
|
74 | 60 | .552 | 9.5 | Won 1 |
| Houston
|
68 | 66 | .507 | 15.5 | Won 2 |
| Cincinnati
|
58 | 76 | .432 | 25.5 | Lost 2 |
| Pittsburgh
|
57 | 76 | .428 | 26 | Lost 7 |
(updated 8.28.2008 at 9:31 PM CDT)
