Why Do The Astros Keep On Losing?
by bwhite2323
on Jun 20, 2008 2:48 PM CDT
Baseball is not a complex game - you hit, you pitch, you field the ball - do it well and you win, do it poorly and you lose. Such is the way with the Astros - they aren't hitting well, they aren't batting well, and no amount of fielding, however good (and the Astros are only average) can overcome that.
Let's look at the hitting. Here are the Astros individual OBPs. These stats are current as of mid-day on June 20th, taken from the Astros website:
Astros "regulars" OBPs for the last 30 days (remember, NL average is around .333)
Wigginton .440, Berkman .415, Bourne .347, NL AVERAGE .333, Ausmus .315, Lee .297, Pence .269, Matsui .275, Tejada .243
Astros "subs' OBPs:
Erstad .368, NL AVERAGE .333, Loretta .321, Towles (just for comparison to Q) .320, Blum .300, Quintero .154.
BATTING SUMMARY: 3 of 8 regulars above the NL average, 1 of 4 subs above the average . POOR! And we sent Towles (.356 OBP, .803 OPS, 2HR at Round Rock) down to get Quintero?
Now for the pitching. Here are the OBPs allowed by Astros pitchers for the past 30 days:
STARTERS: Moehler .295, Rodriguez .323, NL AVERAGE .333, Oswalt .345, Chacon .348, Backe .352
RELIEVERS: Sampson .232, Brocail .227, Villareal .306, Wright .333, NL AVERAGE .333, Byrdak .340, Geary .400, Valverde .400
PITCHING SUMMARY: 2 of 5 starters better than league average, half of relievers better than average. The pitching is BELOW AVERAGE to MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, especially when one learns that the innings pitched have favored the pitchers with higher OBPs allowed.
So despite whatever damage may have been done by Cooper's lineups and in game decisions (and I think in general they have hurt more than helped), there's nothing magic than can be done - except that the players need to start hitting and start pitching. Nothing much will improve until they do.
It's a simple game!
0 recs |
11
comments
Email
PrintComments
Good points...
about the team OBP in recent weeks. However, this is more than just bad luck; I think it reflects a major flaw in the way this team was constructed. The Astros are comprised nearly exclusively (OK, Berkman is big exception) of hitters who do not walk much and who are highly dependent on their batting average to produce OBP. This team was not designed to produce a high on base percentage, at least if you believe the hitters’ past stats. When guys like Tejada are smokin’ hot, with a .320 batting average, the offense is a powerhouse. When the players’ batting average slumps, then nobody gets on base.
At the end of May, I wrote an article about the Astros ranking on the “Beane Count.”
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2008/5/31/543286/the-astros-beane-count
The Beane Count explains a lot of the Astros’ problems, because it is based on league rankings for walks for/against and HRs for/against. When I wrote the article on May 31, the Astros were 11th in the NL, which perhaps foreshadowed the slump which deepened in the next month. The Astros have dropped to 13th in the NL on the Beane Count, a fall which corresponds to the losing streak.
by clack on Jun 20, 2008 6:02 PM CDT 0 recs
Somehow I missed that post
and I find it very interesting. As you point out, the team lacks patience at the plate. Plus, it seems that when Bourn (in particular) gets on base, the Astros seem to become hell bent on scoring him and try to do so by playing small ball even if they are trailing by a big margin.
I really don’t like small ball (as you probably know) and Bourn’s base running contributions are often being negated by it. In fact, if the decision is going to be to play for the one run, I’d rather he didn’t steal at all, so that Tejada and others could hit away. We can’t get any three run homers without two men on base (duh) and as Earl Weaver preached and Bill James has reinforced, “The three run homer is the manager’s best friend.”
As far as the pitching goes, I chart the pitches during the games I attend. While certainly not a random sample, in total, opponents have delivered more than twice as many first pitch strikes than the Astros during the 11 home games I’ve attended thus far. That is a huge problem, and seems like one that could be solved very quickly.
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on
Jun 21, 2008 12:22 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Aside from Pitching, a Slump
I hate to sound pollyanish about this, but it seems to me that we’re the victim of a serious slump. The wrong people are streaking and slumping.
I mean, if you can’t get offense done with BLT as your triple threat with strong support from Matsui and Pence, then you just can’t get it done. We don’t need a whole team of superstars.
The real problem, for me, is the starting pitching. When that falls apart, it magnifies any offensive slump dramatically, and I think it has recently.
I actually am a fan of small ball, although our team is not constructed that way. Coop needs to make his peace with that and get Wade on board to help fix the problem.
For me: 1. Upgrade in starting pitching, and 2. Resolve the question mark around the lead-off hitter spot.
And yeah, re-switching Towles for Q might not be a bad idea.
by pel on Jun 21, 2008 12:52 PM CDT 0 recs
Towles in Round Rock so far...
AVG HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS
.231 2 5 5 8 .362 .436 .798
by entropic soul on Jun 21, 2008 3:42 PM CDT 0 recs
I wouldn't expect Towles to be called back up in the immediate future.
Wade said he is keeping track of Towles’ daily progress, but he does not plan on calling him up just because he gets hot. Wade said that he wants Towles to stay in Round Rock long enough to address some of the mechanical issues in his batting. Given Towles’ battles with strike out problems, which hasn’t really subsided at Round Rock, it makes some sense for him to address the issue in AAA. In retrospect, the Astros probably made a mistake starting the season with the idea that Towles could virtually bypass AAA.
by clack on
Jun 21, 2008 4:31 PM CDT
up
0 recs
heh
“It just felt wrong to not swing.”
The frustrating thing is, Q isn’t any better.
by pel on
Jun 21, 2008 4:58 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Losing because they are a poor team
The Astros do not have a very good baseball team by the numbers – as indicated by Clack’s Bean Count post. They have a few stars and some vets but nothing cohesive to work with and build around. The one sure -fire pitcher was supposed to be Oswalt and he has been inconsistent to say the least.
My friends suggested I see someone about my baseball problem. So I made an appointment but just ended up helping the doctor with his fantasy team.
by TBurford on Jun 23, 2008 8:33 AM CDT 0 recs
I'm not going to say the Astros CAN'T get back in contention...
as a fan, hope springs eternal, and I’ll continue to pull for that to happen. But it is unlikely, given the many flaws in the team. At this point, the Astros just need to concentrate on winning series. If they were to win several consecutive series, at that point, we could be a little bit more optimistic.
by clack on Jun 23, 2008 10:25 AM CDT 0 recs
The Astros are going to the World Series this year
Mark my word!
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
Jun 23, 2008 12:04 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Yeah but they will have to buy tickets
Like the rest of us.
Stros Bro I love the enthusiasm and loyalty but you are definitely one of those who makes the fans part of fanatics. Or delusional.
And oh do I hope that I eat these words and you are right.
My friends suggested I see someone about my baseball problem. So I made an appointment but just ended up helping the doctor with his fantasy team.
by TBurford on Jun 23, 2008 3:37 PM CDT 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
New FanPost
Current Series
3 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
|
Houston Astros
Friday, Sep 5, 2008, 8:05 PM CDT Brian Moehler vs Ubaldo Jimenez Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 60. |
||
| Sat 09/06 | 7:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 09/07 | 2:05 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
85 | 55 | .607 | 0 | Lost 5 |
| Milwaukee
|
80 | 60 | .571 | 5 | Lost 4 |
| St. Louis
|
75 | 65 | .535 | 10 | Lost 1 |
| Houston
|
74 | 66 | .528 | 11 | Won 8 |
| Cincinnati
|
62 | 78 | .442 | 23 | Won 1 |
| Pittsburgh
|
59 | 80 | .424 | 25.5 | Lost 1 |
(updated 9.5.2008 at 9:43 AM CDT)
