Houston Astros : Season 1/3 Over
by Stros Bro on May 30, 2008 10:38 AM CDT
4 comments
Before last nights game, the Astros had completed exactly 1/3 of their regular season with a 30-24 record. I like to mess with projected stats quite a bit... not that I think they really mean a whole lot, but because they really show how well a player or team has done over a much shorter period of time.
If I were to project the record for the Astros after 1/3 of the season, it would put the Astros on pace for a 90 win season, with 72 losses. So my question to you is... If I asked you right now, whether you could either take the 90 win season, or take a chance at having less than or more than 90 wins at the end of the season... what would you do? Would you take the 90 wins now and hope it's good enough for a post season birth? Or would you take your chances with the rest of the season and possibly have a better or worse record?
In 2007, 90 wins would have been good enough to win both the NL East and Central divisions and would have put a team in a tie for 1st place in the NL west. In the American League, 90 wins, would have been good enough for 2nd place in the Wild Card standings, thus not good enough for a post season birth.
In 2006, 90 wins would have been good enough 1st place in the NL Central and West, and 2nd place in the NL east, but once again, only good enough for T-3rd place in the AL Wild Card.
In 2005, 90 wins would have been good enough for T-1st in the NL East, 2nd in the NL Central and 1st in the NL west which would have at least earned playoff for the wild card. In the AL, 90 wins would have been good enough for 4th in the Wild Card.
So what does that mean? Well, the 1st thing that jumps out at me is that there are some really good teams in the AL, and some really bad teams in the AL... 90 wins just isn't good enough if you're an AL team. But in the National League, 90 wins usually is good enough for at least a wild card birth and will typically at least put you in the running for the division. I guess the Astros should be thankful they are in the National League.
So the question again... would you take 90 wins now? My answer would be a yes. With pitching issues the Astros have, I would be pretty happy to have 90 wins at the end of the season. I think this offense with a good pitching staff would be better than 90 wins, I just don't think that our pitching is good enough to wish for much more. Obviously I can't just get my 90 wins now and go home... but when all things are said and done... If we were in the AL... my answer would probably be different... but we're not so... if 90 wins is what we get... I believe I'll be happy... and I believe we'll be in the post season.
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The Astros still have several problem areas....
the pitching staff being first and foremost. But I would also add the lack of offensive production from C and CF. So, I am not convinced that the Astros are a 90 win team. I certainly hope so. But if given the hypothetical chance at making 90 wins a certainty, I would take it.
by clack on May 30, 2008 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hope Springs Eternal
The bullpen seems solid, with Geary back and Sampson added, plus Brocail and Valverde forming a good back-end, I think the bullpen is pretty good. So, with a good bullpen and a good offense, the best O I can remember in Houston in quite some time, can’t we do better than 90? It seems to be more a question of will our youth hold or fold. Can Moeller and Chacon keep doing what they are doing. Backe has started to look very good. Surely, Wandy will regain form soon, and his form was very good early season. Biggest question for me is when, or if, Os returns to ace form. If the Os of old shows up and wins 15-20 and these youngsters keep doing what they’re doing, then we’ll make a run at the division. And, if we do that, then we would likely make a free agent pitching acquisition to make a serious playoff run. Isn’t this a plausible scenario for beating the 90 win mark? Of course, the flipside is that we have some injuries, Chacon, Moeller, Backe have some struggles, and Roy wins less than 15. So, I give it 50/50 on winning 90 or more. And, those are odds I’ll take in May!
by DFWTrojan on May 30, 2008 3:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Of course it's plausible
And you could make a case that 90 wins would be easy to get to, given how bad we started off and how we look now…
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on May 30, 2008 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The betting odds in Las Vegas
for the Astros to BREAK EVEN for the season are 5-4 against. That in itself doesn’t really mean anything, but if any of you are feeling frisky enough to bet that the Astros will win 90 games, which I think would win the Central Division for them, you can get 15 to 1 odds on your money (it was 25-1 as recently as 2 weeks ago).
If the Astros do not win 90 games, then I think the division winner will need more than 90, but if the Astros can win 90, I think they will have an excellent chance of taking the division, as some of those wins will be at the expense of the other contenders.
The Pythagorean projection for the Astros is 83-79, meaning they would play 53-54 for the balance of the season. Fortunately, the games are played on the field and not in the betting parlors or on the statisticians’ computers. However, all things considered, if the Astros had the chance to take 90 wins certain for the season at this point, I think they should jump on it like flies on watermelon!
It takes more than pitching to win a pennant, but not much!
by bwhite2323 on May 30, 2008 5:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 11:43 PM CST)
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