How Hot is Berkman?
Scorching? Too hot to touch? Hot as blue blazes? Really, really hot?
The local newspapers have been repeating various short interval stats (e.g., number of hits over 30 at bats, etc.) to prove that Berkman's bat is hot.
Here is a new way of quantifying it. Bill James, the statistical expert/author, has a "Who is hot?" statistic, which is expressed in degrees temperature. 72 degrees, or "room temperature," is normal. Each hitter starts the season at 72 degrees and degrees are added/subtracted based on each plate appearance. All major batting outcomes are assigned a certain number of positive and negative points.
Here is Bill James' current listing of hitters:
| Lance Berkman | 123° |
| Mike Lowell | 98° |
| Clint Barmes | 97° |
| Joey Votto | 95° |
| Jason Bay | 93° |
James on his web site, billjamesonline.net (subscription), said he tested his formula on David Ortiz's career before using it:
I took the events which comprise the seasons of Edgar Renteria, David Ortiz and three other hitters, and sorted them in random orders multiple times to see how hot and how cold the hitter would get. The season is set up so that a kind of average hitter, having a kind of average season, will peak around 100 degrees or perhaps for a moment over 100 degrees, and will bottom out about 50 degrees or a little under.
Sorting David Ortiz repeatedly, he would occasionally peak out over 120 degrees, and once reached the temperature of 142 degrees, but that was a very unusual thing when, at a time when he was already fairly hot, he had 12 straight hits, including 5 homers and 2 doubles. I don't think we'll often see 142-degree temperatures in real life. Ortiz, in 50 or so "seasons", also had one time when his temperature dropped to 26 degrees after he went 0-for-32.
According to James' data base, the hottest Berkman ever got last year was 101 degrees. In 2006, Berkman's hottest day was 106 degrees. Since 2006 was Berkman's best overall offensive season, the fact that he has far surpassed his hottest day for that year is impressive. Since David Ortiz is mentioned above, the hottest he has ever been, based on the 2006-2008 data on James' web site, is 126 degrees on Sept. 28, 2007.
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Does he explain how the degrees are calculated?
Obviously it is a plus minus type of thing, but it’d be interesting to see what everything is worth.
That could be an interesting thing to track for some of the best streaks in history. Like Joe’s 56 games. Or ARod’s 2007 April.
Yes, I am a nerd.
by TexSkins on
May 11, 2008 10:25 AM CDT
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How did Ortiz ever get to 142 degrees
And Berkman is only at 123 now?
Go 'Stros!
by Stros Bro on
May 11, 2008 11:21 AM CDT
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I think he means that Ortiz got to 142 degrees....
when he played 50 seasons. (In other words…on paper, not in reality.) That is from his test runs of his formula to see how frequent the various “temperatures” might be for particular players in a probabilistic sense.
Now, as I said, Ortiz did actually achieve a degree of hot in 2007 which was 126, just exceeding where Berkman is now. If I have time, I may look back at that period.
In answer to TexSkins’ questions, here are points for events>
- Home Run – 15 points
- Triple – 13
- Double – 11
- Single – 9
- Walk – 6 (Intentional Walk the same)
- Hit by Pitch – 6
- Sac Fly – 6
- ROE – 6
- Sac Hit – 5
- Fly Out – 3
- Ground Out – 2
- GIDP – 0
- Strikeout – 0
by clack on
May 11, 2008 12:31 PM CDT
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Bad link...
but I think I get the gist of it.
Yes, I am a nerd.
by TexSkins on
May 11, 2008 12:38 PM CDT
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All-Star
I guess this ends that previous discussion on whether or not the Astros will have an All-Star representative :)
by raiderdav on
May 11, 2008 7:35 PM CDT
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obviously
all teams have an All-Star representative, so I’ll assume you mean starter. it’s still no open-and-shut case. Pujols is still on a streak of reaching base in EVERY SINGLE GAME this season and has HIT safely in 34 out of 39 games. his SLG is not that impressive, but his OBP is .500!!! that’s rediculous.
hopefully Berkman can keep up this torrid stretch and get some more national attention and get himself an All-Star start for the first time (if I’m not mistaken).
by littlevisigoth on
May 12, 2008 10:40 AM CDT
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fun with numbers
sorting through league leaders on MLB.com. to put in perspective how rediculous Berkman’s slugging numbers are right now, his slugging percentage is higher than the OPS of more than half of MLB players currently “qualified” for the batting title (everyday players), including such notables as Hunter Pence, Prince Fielder, Vlad Guerrero, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, and many more (all but two Astros).
by littlevisigoth on
May 12, 2008 11:08 AM CDT
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