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2008 Astros Preview at Bucs Dugout

Hey Astros fans,

I'm Charlie and I run Bucs Dugout, SBN's site for the Pittsburgh Pirates. You may be interested to check out my preview of the 2008 Astros, even though you may not like my conclusions much.

I don't pretend to know anywhere near as much as you all do about the Astros, so please let me know if I made any mistakes or have any misconceptions. Still, though, I thought you might appreciate an outsider's perspective.

Cheers, and have a good season,

Charlie

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I can't say that your view...
is much different than a lot of other web sites.  I may be more optimistic, but perhaps not as much as I would like.  I view the Astros as a .500 team, which might be good for 3d or 4th place.  I think the starting rotation, bullpen, and starting offense will be improved, and the bench will be worse.  The rotation will be better because Jennings and Albers won't be posting 6+ ERAs.  The bullpen was horrid last year and cost the Astros a lot of games.

Having said that, a .500 record in this division is good enough that better than expected years from some starting pitchers  and/or great offensive years by the middle of the lineup could put the Astros in contention by adding 5 or 6 more wins.

I was critical of trading away young pitchers too. But in retrospect, some of the trades may not be as bad as you would make of them.  Lidge continues to have knee problems and will miss spring training, and now it is evident that Troy Patton, the best traded prospect (to Orioles), has serious shoulder problems which may require surgery.  I think the Astros gave up a little too much for Valverde, but I still like the trade a lot, mostly because I have always been a fan of Valverde's stuff.

by clack on Mar 1, 2008 9:17 AM CST reply actions  

Since I mentioned Patton's...
injury in the previous post, I'll digress and do a "I warned you" posting.  (I will try to avoid temptation to do "I told you so" postings after this one.)

The Baltimore newspapers quote Patton as saying that he first felt the shoulder pain after his second ML start.  That is what I was worried about when he was called up last year.  I went back and found my post when he was called up, for instance:

"What worries me...

about the Garner and Pupura quotes is that continuing to give him starts through the remainder of the season may not be a good idea.  The Astros need to be very careful with Patton's arm, given that he is only 21 years old.  A previous article indicated that Patton is approaching his career high in innings pitched. And you know his adrenalin will be flowing, and causing him to pitch harder than ever. It's fine to give him a taste of the majors and see how he does in an outing or two, but it is foolish to risk injury on a kid that young.

by clack on Sat Aug 25, 2007 at 02:52:14 PM EDT "

I know I repeated the same thought in later postings after the Astros continued to give him pitching assignments after the first start.  At the time, the Houston Chronicle blogs by Justice and Ortiz, etc., were urging the Astros to pitch Patton because of the rampant notion that the team doesn't move its prospects fast enough.  I feared that the Astros might react to those complaints.

by clack on Mar 1, 2008 9:32 AM CST reply actions  

Well
That's just like... your opinion man.

I'm not sure the Stros will be contending for the playoffs, but I can say with good certainty that they'll be better than they were last year (how can they possibly be worse).  You went through and highlighted several areas where they'll be improved offensively, then went on to mention how much of a disaster our rotation was LAST year.  Without putting up any numbers, you dismissed our current rotation as a lost cause, but I'm of the opinion that we'll be surprisingly improved in that area, if only because we were so bad last year (subtracting Albers' and Jennings' combined 219.2 IP at 5.86 ERA can't hurt).  

The area you didn't bother to address was the bullpen.  You made it sound like Wade's moves were all willy nilly, but he clearly prioritized improving the bullpen and improving the defense.  It's funny how critical everybody was of Lidge and how broken he was, but as soon as the Astros trade him away, he's good again.  Our bullpen SUCKED last year, regardless of how good some of the pieces were in previous years.  We didn't dump the Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge of 2005.  We dumped the Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge of 2007.  Valverde should help stabilize the back end, and between Villarreal, Brocail, Paronto, Geary, Chacon,  Sampson, Paulino, etc., we should have the depth to have a pretty solid bullpen.  Time will tell.

I think the weakest and most unattended-to area of the club right now is the bench.  Losing Lamb is going to hurt.

I'm with Clack.  I think we project as about a .500 team.  They could surprise people in either direction, but I'd slot them above the Cardinals for sure.  Talk about a team without direction and with giant question marks in their rotation.

In the end though, thanks for the input and for sparking some discussion.  I'll be curious to read the rest of your previews.

by littlevisigoth on Mar 1, 2008 10:56 AM CST reply actions  

Thanks for the comments, everyone.
Just wanted to respond quickly to this one. Certainly all this is just my opinion, but also from the just-an-opinion files, one thing I've learned from writing about other teams and then soliciting comments from their fans is that probably the most common comment fans have about their teams is similar to yours: that "we'll be better this year because so-and-so won't be stinking it up in the rotation." Pirates fans say this all the time, too.

The problem is that, barring spectacular luck, the 'Sros WILL have another Jennings this year. In fact, they'll probably have more than one. I read recently that on average, teams have to depend on something like 30 starts per year from injury replacements. Where are those 30 starts going to come from for the Astros? B.P. Chacon? One of the young guys? And what happens if Backe's recovery doesn't work out as well as you might like? Or if Williams continues his slow fade?

That's my main reason for slotting them fifth. I completely agree that they can be a .500 team, and I like some of the changes Wade made to the offense, at least for 2008. And the NL Central is so weak that the Astros could easily have some things break well for them and finish in the top half. But I don't think it's that likely.

FWIW, I went back and forth about slotting them behind the Cardinals.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 1, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Response
"Where are those 30 starts going to come from for the Astros? B.P. Chacon? One of the young guys? "

No doubt depth was a problem and that is one of the reasons that the Chacon signing was needed.  I ran some scenarios with Cassel and Paulino as the 5th and 6th starters, using three different projection systems (ZIPS, CHONE, James) and, for each projection system the Astros starters' overall ERA is better this year.  (Part of it is due to the fact that ZIPS likes Cassel and Paulino, while the other two systems like Sampson and/or Woody.)  I understand why you dislike Chacon after he performed so badly in 06 for the Bucs after the trade from NY.  But, truthfully, Chacon looks like a pretty good option; he has 4 of 7 seasons with an ERA+ above 100, and all of the projection systems above forecast an ERA in the 4's for him.  I don't have a problem with him as a replacement in the rotation.

by clack on Mar 1, 2008 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I think most fans of a team
will ultimately believe their team will be better than a non fan of that team will be. That being said, I think the Astros will win 100 games! (kidding)
Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Mar 1, 2008 7:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I KIND of agree
I look at what the Astros had last year and then what they have this season and think they are 7-9 games better giving them 81-83 wins.
Then I look at who the Astros have and think I have to get off the pipe.  I cannot see how this team gets to 500 with that starting rotation.  
Can someone help me here?  I'd love to believe myself but I can't.
It's the next generation of Astros. Let's see if they can play like the men they are replacing.

by TBurford on Mar 3, 2008 12:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Well..
Cooper is thinking Roy will get 30 wins... so we only need 51 form the other 4 starters ;)
Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Mar 3, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Starting Rotation
T. Burford, Awhile back, I used ZIPS and Bill James projections for the Astros starters, 1-7, to reach the same number of starter innings pitched as last year.
ZIPS/ ERA
Oswalt 3.48
Rodriguez 4.72
Williams 5.23
Backe 5.02
Sampson 4.99
Paulino 4.78
Cassel 4.75
Starter Team ERA 4.60
Improvement Over 2007 : 2.4%

Bill James/ERA
Oswalt 3.07
Rodriguez 4.72
Williams 4.37
Backe 4.88
Sampson 4.03
Paulino 4.78
Cassel 4.80
Starter Team ERA 4.20
Improvement over 2007: 11.2%

If the bullpen can improve by 10% over last year, without any offensive improvement the ZIPS scenario results in 76 wins and the James scenario results in 80 wins.  Since we assume the offense will be substantially better, a .500 record would seem easily achievable if the offensive improvement can add 4-6 wins.  However, in order to get into contention with, say, 86-89 wins, the Astros would need one or more significant breakthroughs in the rotation (e.g., Wandy at 200 innings with a 3.5 ERA) and/or an unexpectedly good year from several offensive players.

by clack on Mar 3, 2008 9:05 PM CST up reply actions  

what do ZIPS and Bill James
think of Chacon this year?

i personally have higher hopes for both Backe and Rodriguez, but maybe they are a bit overly optimistic.

by littlevisigoth on Mar 4, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

You can find projections...
on the player pages at fangraphs.com.  For instance, here is Wandy's player page:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2586&position=P

CHONE projects a 4.55 ERA for Wandy.

Projections for Shawn Chacon ERA
James 5.08
Chone 4.75
ZIPS 4.91
Marcels 4.69

I didn't realize the James projection for Chacon was that bad, until now.  I think that Chacon's injury season in 2006 probably hurts his projection.  None of the projection systems have a good way of handling injury seasons, which is one reason Backe doesn't fare well.  Also, Backe's  K/BB trend isn't great, which probably is a significant factor in the projection methodologies.

The two Astros pitchers which seem to produce the widest range of disagreement are Woody Williams and Chris Sampson.  Bill James' projections are optimistic for both of them.  ZIPS projections for them are bad.  CHONE is in between.  Two similarities between Williams and Sampson: both pitchers have low K rates and rely on low BB rates to succeed.  I assume that the methodologies differ on how they weight K rates and BB rates, etc. and of course how they handle aging.

by clack on Mar 4, 2008 5:11 PM CST up reply actions  

pretty solid review
I think the 08 Stros will be better than most people think. The problem with what Wade did is the Stros have no chance of winning a championship, just win 85 games or so. The pitching isn't good enough to win in the playoffs. So I think the Stros will actually finish 2nd and maybe even win the division with the very strong offense they have put together.

I liked the move for Vilareal and Valverde. All the other moves were bad in my opinion. The problem for me is after 08. They have no future that I can see. Who will pitch in the future?

The most important thing for the Astros is the 08 draft.

I still like Jason Hirsh

by Shamus on Mar 1, 2008 1:33 PM CST reply actions  

Wade actually took the Astros to arbitration
do you think he'll do the same and make Daryton forget the slot money?

by TexSkins on Mar 1, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

hopefully
If the organization reads any outside evaluators they know that most people think Drayton made a HUGE mistake last year(that is putting it kind). They have got to spend.
I still like Jason Hirsh

by Shamus on Mar 1, 2008 3:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Pitching Traded away
So much has been said about how much pitching we traded away and how could we do that.  I think aside from Qualls we didn't do to badly.  I know spring training just started but look at some of the numbers of who we traded away, minus Troy Patton (who I was bummed about initially) oh yeah and Lidge(someone else said this already but isn't it funny how everyone said he was washed up after Pujols, then we trade him to Philly and everyone loves him again) who's out with the same bum knee:

Guiterrez 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO
Albers  1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO
Sarfate 0.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 SO
Qualls 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO

We will miss Qualls and possibly Sarfate, but come on we got Valverde and Tejada for them, trades have to hurt but I don't think they will as much as everyone in the press thinks.

by mitch on Mar 2, 2008 12:22 PM CST reply actions  

Qualls will definitely hurt the worst
I would have been ok with him as closer for the Astros this year.  I for some reason always had trust in Qualls... he never really worried me when he was in.
Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Mar 2, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

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