What to Expect From New Houston Astros Closer Jose Valverde

by Stros Bro on Feb 16, 2008 11:42 PM CST in News

I'll be honest, before last season's coming out party for new Astros closer, Jose Valverde, I'm not sure I could have told you what team he played for, or what position he played without looking it up. But obviously now, pretty much everyone knows of the 6'4", 255 lb dominican born fire-baller.

What can we expect from him this year?

Well, one thing you can expect is the return of rap music as your closer enters the game. Valverde who's nick name is Papa Grande( or Big Papa) enters the game to the tune of Big Poppa by the Notorious B.I.G. I'm sure most of you know or have at least heard this song... not my favorite, but I'm by no means a rap fan. If I remember correctly, the last time rap music was played for an Astro to enter the game as a closer was when Dotel took over the reigns in 2004.

Valverde offers 4 different pitches; both 2 and 4 seam fastballs, splitter, and a slider. Don't expect a Brad Lidge-type slider, but his fastballs have the potential to hit triple digits. You can also expect a little more "enthusiastic" strike out celebration than the Brad Lidge fist pump. We've all heard what Lance thinks about it... I'm not a real big fan of it, but hell... if he gets the job done, he can dance with a band out on the field for all I care. (see the video below if you haven't seen his celebration)

There are a few things that worry me about Valverde though. One, which could plainly be attributed to coincidence, is his down seasons on even numbered years. Valverde has posted ERA's of 2.15, 2.44 and 2.66 in odd numbered years while posting ERA's of 4.25 and 5.84 in even numbered years. With 2008 being an even numbered year, we can only hope he ends that trend now. Also, Valverde's K:BB ratio is a little low for my likings as an elite closer. His K:BB ratio is 2.98:1 compared to Brad Lidge's 3.3:1, Mariano Rivera's 3.6:1 and Billy Wagner's 3.9:1 ratio. One other thing to mention is, although Valverde led with 47 saves last year, he also led in chances... He blew 7 saves last year; just 1 less than Lidge.

One other completely pointless stat... Valverde owns a batting average of 1.000, slugging 2.000 with a double and an RBI in his only at bat of his major league career.

SEASON

Team

ERA

SHO

SVO

HBP

2003

Arizona

2.15

50.1

2004

Arizona

4.25

29.2

2005

Arizona

2.44

66.1

2006

Arizona

5.84

49.1

2007

Arizona

2.66

64.1

Career Totals

3.29

253

114

260

194

105

111

331

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Hmm

I similarly don't care what Valverde does, as long as he saves games. His stuff looks good, but I've still got questions and he reminds a bit too much like Lidge to me (who was autopicked for me in one of my fantasy teams: giving me even more incentive to follow his progress.)

by jonthefon on Feb 17, 2008 1:26 AM CST reply actions

Papa Grande

fyi: the term is generally used when talking to your grandpa. grand=big/grande pa=papa. My niece calls my dad Papa Grande.

by Joel on Feb 17, 2008 2:06 AM CST reply actions

Hope for repeat of 07

I've always liked Valverde for selfish reasons. He helped my fantasy teams in both 06 and 07. In 2006, his bad year, he had a terrible May/June, and was sent down to AAA to get it together. I picked him up for my fantasy team when he returned to his closer position in August/September, and he was "light out" to use a Lidge term, and I drafted him in 07 based on my late season luck with him.

One thing to keep in mind is that Arizona's park is very hitter friendly. So, if you neutralize his stats (Baseball-Reference.com), he only has one bad season (06). His neutralized ERAs are: 03 1.92; 04 3.86; 05 2.30; 06 4.97; 07 2.32 (career 2.92).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/valvejo01.shtml

It is true that Valverde doesn't have good control like Rivera and Wagner, and therefore walks more batters (his K/G is better though). But his K/G and BB/G are similar to Lidge's over the last two years: K/G Lidge 06 11.9 07 11.9 Valverde 06 12.0 07 11.5; BB/G Lidge 06 4.1 07 4.1 Valverde 06 3.8
07 3.8 (Hardball Times).

Hopefully, Valverde gets a lot of save opportunities.

by clack on Feb 17, 2008 4:17 AM CST reply actions

How about he doesn't get a lot of save opps

because we go into the late innings with 4 and 5 run leads? (I know, just dreaming.)

That even year thing, if it did turn out to be significant after adjusting for parks - what could cause that? Could it be fatigue or injury related, only over a longer period of time?

Don't ever lie to Congress; you can't beat them at their own game.

by bwhite2323 on Feb 17, 2008 9:50 AM CST up reply actions

Religion?

Not sure what could cause that, but I honestly just think it's coincidence. But it is weird how stuff like that happens. Maybe overconfidence after having a good year so he didn't work as hard in the off season?

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Feb 17, 2008 10:02 AM CST up reply actions

Remember when...

people used to say that Ensberg had a even/odd pattern for good/bad years. I tend to think these patterns are coincidence. Also, sometimes players are just lucky or unlucky in particular years (this is particularly true for pitchers, but also to some extent for hitters), and you might have a random pattern develop which goes to the extremes (rather than the player's "mean" performance) in back to back years. However, I kind of like the possible explanation in the post above about a pitcher overworking or straining himself in the good years. That could happen, I suppose.

by clack on Feb 17, 2008 10:20 AM CST up reply actions

Compareing numbers to Lidge

I do not have time to look up numbers on Lidge. What I do remember about Lidge is that if you put him in the game you had to take him out and put in someone else because he could not close up a pizza box to save his life the last two years. I am glad we have someone who can close a game.

As for the music and what not. Who cares? Closers have the reputation for being flakey and strange. I think it is part of the job.

by Small Law on Feb 17, 2008 6:33 PM CST reply actions

Valverde's Stuff

Hardball Times has been running an interesting series of articles on developing pitcher similarity scores based on the pitchers' stuff (types of pitches, how they move).
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitcher-similarity-scores-part-ii/

Jose Valverde made the list of 5 most unique pitchers. Another big name closer, Mariano Rivera, was also on that list.

The discussion of the reason that Valverde is unique might be of interest to those of us who want to know more about his pitches:

"Valverde is on the list because of his splitter. Last year he limited himself to only throwing his fastball and his splitter and his tracked pitches bear that out. His splitter, though, is an incredibly unique pitch which comes from how he holds the ball. His grip is regular but instead of holding the ball at the seams he places one seam in between his fingers. I've never heard of any other pitcher doing this. If you have heard of another pitcher doing this please let me know in the comment area below.

The result of this unique grip is a very large sink for a splitter and much less horizontal movement to the point that it is very similar to his fastball. This can really confuse the hitters and they see fastball until the bottom drops out."

by clack on Feb 19, 2008 5:18 PM CST reply actions

Good stuff

I'm excited to see him pitch... I know little to nothing about him other than what I've read.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Feb 19, 2008 5:47 PM CST up reply actions

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