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Wigginton to Twins trade rumor follow-up

As of today, the Twins are no longer in negotiations with Casey Blake. The extra third year that Blake wants did indeed turn out to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

Now Minnesota will turn to other options: Jack Wilson, Adrian Beltre and Garrett Atkins among them. The Rockies apparently asked for Kevin Slowey and Denard Span in exchange for Atkins.

Seems a bit much, in my opinion. With Slowey, a team gets a guy who has a predicted 3.76 FIP in 2009 (Bill James), who is coming off a reasonable 173.1 IP in 2008 (minor league and major league combined). He threw a total of 201.1 in 2007, so he seems to be a great candidate to do even better in his third season as a major leaguer, which his Bill James FIP indicates. Span is a decent OBP guy with little pop, and since the Astros don't need another left handed bat in CF, I don't see much worth in breaking him down any more.

With the Atkins' fate tied to that of Todd Helton, I don't know if the Rockies are willing to give him up for less than their original asking price. Without Helton hitting at 1B, they'll need Atkins to make the move across the infield.

Adrian Beltre is an interesting player. He has not done much to justify his 5 yr/$64 million deal he signed with the M's before the 2005 season. Few players do ever live up to the hype of a big contract, but regardless, he has been a dissapointment to an extent. His past three seasons have been manageable, with ISO% above .190 in all of them. A dramatic increase in his BB/K rate from his prior three seasons leads Bill James to be high on him going into 2009. With two years and $24 million left on his contract, the Twins may be in a position to may this move because of possible increased revenues with a new stadium opening in 2010.

 

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If Slowey is aiming too high, another Twin I like is Nick Blackburn. I’ve seen some people saying his 2008 was a fluke. And if ActualERA/FIP would agree somewhat: 4.05/4.40. But the dude ate a lot innings last year (193), and in the NL, a 4.40 ERA for 193 innings would make you a solid #3 pitcher.

by AstroAndy on Dec 6, 2008 4:51 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So true.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Dec 6, 2008 5:10 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blackburn is an interesting thought.

He seems to be a pitch to contact type pitcher. Obviously, that type of pitcher will be dependent on the quality of the team defense behind him. So, there is some risk if the Astros’ defense were to decline somewhat next season. At BBTF, one commenter compared Blackburn to Carlos Silva, in the sense that he looks better than he is, because the Twins have good defense.

Although I do think the odds are likely that 08 was a career year for Wigginton, I think we may be selling his offense short in these trade discussions. Even with some regression, he is still a good offensive player at 3d base. Really, there aren’t a lot of choices available in free agency (or feasible trade) which offer his kind of offense at 3d base. Of course, the Twins may feel burned by Mike Lamb, and worry that they might be disappointed by another Astros’ 3d baseman.

by clack on Dec 7, 2008 9:56 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wigginton for Mauer

straight up. Pretty sure the Twins don’t want him. Make it happen, Wade.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 7, 2008 12:17 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Keep Wigginton

I may be spitting in the wind but I hope Astros keep Wigginton. I was slow accept Wigginton as true Astros – He was more like a hired hand. But his hustle and steady his stepping it up when Carlos Lee went down converted me.

I don’t understand how trading him makes the Astros a better team. I’ve heard cost -cutting, but without a solid third baseman ready to step in to take his place, the cost savings is miniscule compared to the harm of losing Wigginton.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 7, 2008 12:51 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well

last season was probably Wiggy’s career year. We shouldn’t expect that type of production out of him again. The key is to find someone who thinks Wigginton can continue to produce (Ned Colletti and the Dodgers seem like the best candidates, to me, given Ned’s willingness to make terrible decisions) and who will give us something good in return for him.

Drayton has, for all intents and purposes, made this team a non-contender for next year. By all reports, there’s a hard $100 million cap on salary for the Astros, so I wouldn’t expect Wade to sign Sheets or any other premium starter.

So, presumably, Wade’s goal should probably be to make the organization’s farm system as strong as possible. Trading Wigginton might provide a good payoff. Yeah, the Astros don’t have anyone to take Wiggy’s place, but Wigginton probably isn’t a long-term solution to the franchise’s third base problem, anyways. While trading Wigginton means you lose a good offensive player, the Astros need prospects more than they need another year of a slightly above-average third baseman.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 7, 2008 1:40 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Joe, it's probably something you have to take up with Drayton.

As best we can tell, he has set a payroll limit on Wade which makes the GM think that the only places he can “cut” are Wiggy and Valverde, given that they are the only likely big salaries not yet under contract. I agree with you that the offense will be worse without Wiggy…unless Wade does something creative to make up for it.

by clack on Dec 7, 2008 10:00 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Astros definitely must keep Valverde

Winning teams need great closers.

I keep hearing the economy is bad – and McLane not raising payroll. Other teams are expanding payroll by 10 to 15% and many of them had higher payrolls to start. You can’t blame the economy: Two of the teams I’ve read about are the Dodgers and the Braves, two teams located in really slumping markets. Houston has escaped much of the recession hasn’t it?

Also Baseballfan posted his (or her) analysis concluding, in effect, the Astros should finish second behind the Cubs. If he is accurate, and given the probability the Cubs will implode this year, It would seem to me the Astros ought to be sure they stay ahead of the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds,and can take advantage of a Cubs slip.

Go for the ring!

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 8, 2008 2:27 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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