How the Yankees may not win it all next year
by Evan Hochschild on Dec 23, 2008 8:18 PM CST
in Hot Stove
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PrintApparently CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett weren't enough. Mark Teixeira put pen to paper today and inked an 8 yr/$180 million contract. Total value of those three free agent contracts: a tidy $424.5 million. Does money buy happiness, or at very least World Series Championships?
The Yankees, who haven't won a World Series since 2000, have made this off season their own personal trip through the mall. While teams such as the Astros headed to Sears and JC Penney for bargains, the Pinstripers went down to Sak's Fifth Avenue with a limitless credit card. Is this irresponsible spending? Maybe. Has the team shown a clear commitment to winning, at least in the short term? Sure.
Holes do exist for the 2009 Yankees. Such as:
- Who will play Center Field? $250 million for a payroll in 2009, and no true centerfielders on the major league roster. Johnny Damon and Nick Swisher may be able to fake their way through the job, but Xavier Nady cannot. Brett Gardner and The Melk Man both project to be average players in center field. It's doubtful that either will be in the outfield on opening day.
- How good is Mark Teixeira? Tex replaces Nick Swisher at first base, and Swish goes to the outfield pushing Melky out of a spot. Tex and Swisher combine for 10.6 Wins above replacement, outproducing a Swish and Melk combination of 9.9. At an average of $22.5 million a season, he represents the fourth Yankee to make more than $20 million per year on average, joining ARod, Derek Jeter and the aforementioned CC Sabathia. Although he is the second best first-baseman in the game (with all due respect to Lance), his OPS+ the past two years is 150.5. Carlos Pena, who will make $9 million next year, averaged 149.5 for his OPS+ the past two years...just saying.
- Tex will be a Yankee until he's 36. He's not a versatile defensive player, so he will be entrenched at first base the entire time, most likely. Nick Swisher doesn't offer the skills that Tex does, but he at least can play multiple positions. This is important for an older team like the Yankees. Suppose that Manny Ramirez had been signed instead. He would've been on the team's payroll for only three years, and would have left first base wide open. Swisher is a capable first baseman, and Jorge Posada is already a first baseman playing catcher. Manny was far and away the best hitter in baseball in 2008, in terms of Win Probability Added. Bill James also projects Manny to out-OPS Tex next year, albeit by .001 (.956 to .955).
New York has made the biggest splash(es) of the off season, but it definitely doesn't ensure that they will have the best chance to win the World Series next year. While it makes a great deal of sense in the short term, the long term implications of the signing leaves the Yankees with an aging roster facing a great deal of decline across the board in the coming years.
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They may not have bought themselves a World Series Championship.
Because that’s practically impossible.
But have certainly bought themselves a play-off berth.
I agree that have overpaid extravagantly this season .
(you can multiply the salaries by 140% for the luxury tax effect.) But I do think that they have come as close as any team can come to cinching the division title. Like entropic said, it is impossible for any team to ensure a World Series championship. And I’m not convinced that the Yankees won’t try to trade for Mike Cameron from the Brewers.
I disagree that Texeira is defensively limited, but that doesn’t mean much unless A-Rod were to move to shortstop at some point. My recollection is that people talked about Texeira as a future gold glove at 3d base when he was in the minors. But Blalock got to the majors first. I have sometimes wondered why teams wouldn’t move Tex to 3d base if they are going to pay that much for him. However, in the Yankees’ case, A-Rod will be playing for as long as Texeira.
From the Yankees perspective, they probably would point out that they have done a pretty good job of making the team younger. They have jettisoned about $80 million of old players. However, I hate reading the all the posts of Yankee fans on BBTF saying stuff like, “This is the best FXXX Christmas ever.”
IF it weren't for the fan worship of Jeter in NY
he’d be at 1B (where his range problems are moot) or at 3B (where he has less responsibility and can use his strong arm) and A-Rod would be playing shortstop (having maintained the physique to play the position).
Their spending for next year
Still has yet to match the contracts they’re shedding, but I still don’t think they’re even a cinch for the AL East or the AL Wild Card.
Their rotation is dependent on Hughes, Kennedy, or Joba living up to potential, and then the other two at least pulling their weight; they don’t have a deep bullpen; Swish is going to have a tough job playing adequate CF (maybe they flip Swish for some bullpen help?); Jeter’s not good at SS and his bat is rapidly declining; Matsui has to rebound; Posada has to not only be healthy, but live up to his career year which landed him that ridiculous contract; so all in all, I don’t think the Yankees are even close to becoming the team to beat. Boston and Tampa Bay are still going to be great—Tampa Bay even better with the addition of David Price to the rotation.
I don’t think the Yankees have been reckless or irresponsible with their money at all. They have the revenue streams to support it and they need to milk their stadium honeymoon to its fullest, so more power to them—but I don’t think their a lock for the playoffs and certainly not for a World Series.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
They don't need Matsui to rebound...they are trying to get rid of him.
They have too many outfielders. They’ve got Nady, Damon, Swishwr, Cabrera, as well. And who knows if they trade for Cameron or sign Manny. Assuming they re-sign Pettitte, they only need to fill one rotation slot from among the three young pitchers. I think Sabbathia, Burnett, and Wang are a tough front end of the rotation. There are plently of relief pitchers still on the market. I’m sure they willl get around to signing more on that front too.
Lemme think
Out of the big three in the East, my opinions:
Offence: Really close one here. In fact, I won’t bother distinguishing between them at least yet. I used this little rating system giving 1, 2 or 3 to each position player, and it was pretty much equal, but I didn’t factor in the catcher battle since Boston haven’t gotten themselves one, and I’m not sure whether the Rays are getting themselves a good DH. The Yankees have themselves a great offensive infield now (especially if Cano bounces back) but their OF still doesn’t appear to have the solidness of the other two teams.
Defence: The Yankees are third place by plenty here, Jeter’s terrible and their OF defence looks very average (maybe below, I don’t think any of their OFs are plus). I’m not sure how good Jed Lowrie is at D, but I’m taking the Rays infield by a shade over the Red Sox (Lowell?) Tampa Bay’s outfielders look like they’ll cover a lot of ground and Bay’s below-average in LF. So the Rays win this, BoSox second and Yankees third.
Rotation: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine. The Rays have possibly the best rotation in baseball. The Yanks have a nice three-punch with CC, Wang and Burnett and if they get Pettitte back, I think working Joba and Hughes at 5 will be fine. That Red Sox rotation doesn’t inspire me much at all…Beckett looked rather vulnerable at times and Dice-K’s about the luckiest pitcher in the league. Of course Lester’s good, but who are they going to put at 5 after Wakefield at 4? Buchholz? Masterson? So the order’s TB, NY, Boston.
Bullpen: Again, it looks as if Boston and TB are head-to-head in this factor. I like Wheeler/Balfour/Howell over Delcarmen/Masterson/Okajima but that’s offset by the Papelbot being much better than Percival. The Yanks do have Mo and some strike-throwers in Veras, Ramirez and the ex-Pirates guy (Marte?) but I’m not sure about them.
So there’s my totally unbiased analysis of the entire situation. Of course, I’m harbouring resentment towards the Yanks for spending like an endless fountain, but there’s only really one conclusion: the East is going to be a helluva tussle.
Sears or JC Pennys?
More like Walmart or the dollar store.
Hi, my name is Rich and I'm an Astroholic.
by Austin Astroholic on Dec 23, 2008 9:23 PM CST reply actions
I had the same thought
Aaron Boone and Jason Michaels are definitely some K-Mart Blue Light specials.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 23, 2008 9:36 PM CST up reply actions
Too true...
Too true.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 24, 2008 1:04 AM CST up reply actions
The more the Yankee's spend...
…the higher the “luxury tax” they pay. Maybe the Yanks’ winter spending will trickle down to the Astros and they’ll feel comfortable ponying up the dough in January for a starting pitcher that isn’t a rehab project!
In that case
I’m crossing my fingers for a Manny signing.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 24, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
Astros won't benefit.
First, the luxury tax proceeds go into a separate fund for MLB industry growth (it subsidizes smaller teams only indirectly…to the extent they benefit from MLB centralized activities). Secondly, revenue sharing occurs through a revenue sharing fund. Some teams are net payors into the fund and some teams are net payees in this fund. Teams must have below average local revenues to be a beneficiary. I suspect that the Astros are a slight net payor, subsidizing teams like the Marlins, Pirates, and Rays. The Astros’ relative market position likely means they won’t ever become a subsidized team. By far, the biggest net payor are the Yankees; so the bottom dwelling revenue teams like the Marlins should be very happy with the signings.
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