What does the Astros offense look like now?

by clack on Dec 21, 2008 3:23 PM CST Comment 11 comments

Unless something unexpected happens, we have a pretty good idea what the Astros' offensive roster will look like next year. Sure, we don't know who the utility infielders will be, but that is a relatively minor issue. With the loss of Wigginton, most fans assume that the offense will crater. Of course, the answer also depends on which existing offensive players will perform better or worse than last year.

I will take a stab at quantifying the likely Astros offense in 2009. I average two projection systems together for each hitter: Chone and Bill James. The Bill James projections are shown on the fangraphs player pages. I averaged Chone's projected average ML performance for minor leaguers Sutton, Maysonet, and Manzella to develop the assumed reserves' performance for the middle infield. I averaged Towles and Palmisano's projected ML performance to develop the assumed back up performance at catcher. I assumed Michaels and Erstad split outfield back up duties 50/50, and that Boone is the exclusive back up at third and first base. Then I made assumptions about the playing time of the starters: Berkman, Tejada, and Lee, 95%; Pence, 90%; Matsui, Blum, Bourn, 60%; and Quintero, 50%. The reserves make up the remainder of the performance at those players' positions. I assumed that pitchers take 80% of the at bats in the no. 9 batting slot, and that the outfield reserves take the remainder as pinch hitters. I used Wandy Rodriguez's offense in 2008 as the "typical" Astros' pitcher.

Next, I used Baseball Musings' Lineup Analyzer to estimate the runs which the offense will score. I assumed the following batting order:2d base, shortstop, 1st base, left field, right field, 3d base, catcher CF, Pitcher / PH. The result is 4.337 runs per game. As you would also see on that page, the lineup analyzer indicates that this is far from the optimal batting order, in terms of run production. However, I attempted to show a batting order which is feasible, based on Cooper's past batting order decisions. None of the "better" batting orders (as picked by the Lineup Analyzer) will be used by Cooper.

OK, now let's compare the likely change from last year.

Runs Scored

2009 Projection 703 runs

2008 Actual 712 runs

That is 9 less runs scored than last year, or approximately a 1% change. Granted that is not very good; but the offense was weak last year too. The projected team OBP is .314, which is even worse than the terrible .323 OBP last year.

But, if you are a glass "half full" guy, the result really isn't much different than last year, despite the loss of Wigginton. And, of course, when the numbers are that close, it doesn't require an exorbitant amount of good luck to exceed last year's offensive results. If it is still possible that Ed Wade gets authority to sign another starting pitcher before spring training (who knows?), at least, he has managed to keep the offense within range of last year's results. I realize that probably is an excessively optimistic view, and most Astros' fans aren't too optimistic right now.

If you're interested, if the Astros has kept Wigginton at 3d base, the lineup analyzer would project about 725 runs scored, which is 13 runs more than last year and 22 runs more than the expected lineup for next season.

Some observations on the projections, after putting together this exercise:

Bourn and Pence are expected to have a better season next year.
Both projection systems like Towles, and think he will be decent.
The projected sub-.700 OPS at third base is very bad.
CHONE likes Sutton well enough to project a 700-ish OPS.
CHONE isn't as bullish on Chris Johnson, Maysonet, or Manzella.
Both projections see a slight rebound by Tejada.
CHONE projects better stats for Bogusevic than Bourn.
Excel File

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Comments

Nice job

I agree with your assumptions. It all goes by the wayside with the first major injury. But is interesting. 21 runs lost with Wigginton gone will hurt some – and you did not say if Mark Loretta’s loss will hurt.

I wonder if and how much the loss of Brad Ausmus beind the plate will affect Astros pitching (I know- you didn’t analyze that) or Cecil Cooper having a year’s experience as manager.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 21, 2008 5:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, agree about Loretta.

When I looked at the utility infielder situation during this exercise, the loss of Loretta jumped out at me. The Astros desperately need OBP, and most of the options for utllity infielder probably will post a sub-.300 OBP. If you assume, as I did, that Matsui’s back up will get maybe 40% of the playing time at 2d base, a low OBP will really hurt. Loretta didn’t have much power, but always puts up a good OBP. In retrospect, I wonder if Ed Wade would have let Loretta go if he knew that he was going to non-tender Wigginton? If Loretta were still around, he would provide a reliable platoon at 3d with Blum, plus back up Tejada and Matsui.

by clack on Dec 21, 2008 6:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for this Clack

I’m surprised that difference is only about a win, especially since the drop of in OBP is so dramatic, but I guess that’s good news for us.

Maybe a solid Roy and Wandy can at least keep us out a ninety loss season.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Dec 21, 2008 7:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

well, the reason the difference is so small is that Wiggy's subtraction...

is partially offset by Tejada, Pence, and Bourne improvements. All of those improvements are modest but they add up.

by clack on Dec 21, 2008 9:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Unless something unexpected happens

Like the Astros announce that they’re signing Tex to play 3B…

by DyingQuail on Dec 21, 2008 7:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

or

it turns out that there is a “secret clause” in Sabathia’s contract that brings him to Houston

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 21, 2008 8:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

or

There’s a secret clause in A-Rod’s contract that sends both of them to Houston…for the league minimum.

by DyingQuail on Dec 21, 2008 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

or

Carlos Beltran’s Mets contract was just a ruse. It was like that ending scene in the Dark Knight, where Batman lets everyone hate him for the greater good. So Beltran signed this weird contract back in 2005 that sent him to New York for four years, but now the secret option kicks in and he comes back to Houston. He had to sign that contract because Drayton needed a reason to fire Hunsicker, because Hunsicker was a secret robot-mutant-vampire-Nazi from hell.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 21, 2008 8:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So what were Bogusevic's projections? (They weren't included in the excel file)

If Bogusevic proves to be an improvement, offensively, the question is if that outweighs whatever is lost from benching Bourn’s defense. Because, unless Pence just totally collapses next season, I doubt he’ll be playing in right.

Of course, this is the organization that has played Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio in CF, so it’s not like defensively-challenged center-fielders are without precedent in MMP.

And, obviously, that assumes he’ll be called up at some point next year. Hopefully that happens. It’s not like the Astros have much to lose at this point. If nothing else, I imagine Towles, Sutton, Bogusevic, and maybe even Castro have decent chances next year, if only because the big-league club is going to suck so hard.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 21, 2008 8:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You can find it by clicking Chone in the article...

Bogusevic: .271, .331, .400, .731
Also, that Chone page has “expanded” stats for Bogusevic linked to it. The line above is the expected value or 50th percentile.

If Bogusevic could put up a .731 OPS, and can play a tolerable CF, I would platoon him with Bourn. I haven’t seen him play the outfield. And we seem to get mixed signals from other observers as to whether he can play CF decently.

by clack on Dec 21, 2008 9:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What was I thinking?

Bogusevic is a LHB (yeah, we all know he was LHP). So, he really doesn’t fit a normal platoon with Bourn. However, this scenario could unfold: Bourn starts the season off poorly and Bogusevic begins his AAA season with a good start. If that happened, I could see Bogusevic replacing some of Bourn’s playing time, particularly if Bogusevic shows that he can play an acceptable CF.

by clack on Dec 23, 2008 8:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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