Maybe Lidge didn't change in Philadelphia
by clack
on Dec 19, 2008 9:25 PM CST
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That's the implication of this article at fangraphs. The author compares Lidge's performance in 2007 for the Astros and 2008 for the Phillies, and concludes that the gap in performance wasn't very much, meaning that he was just unluckier with the Astros in 2007. The author states:
While Lidge was somewhat better in 2008, this comparison serves to show how there really wasn’t that wide of a difference between “head case” Lidge in ‘07 and “World Series champ” Lidge in ‘08. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate), we find that ‘07 Lidge (3.42) was a little worse than ‘08 Lidge (3.06), but not by as much as one might initially think. What led to the big gap in perception?
The big difference between 07 and 09 was the percentage of flyballs which went out of the park. To some extent this is a factor which is driven by luck. The fact that Lidge had a HR/fly rate much higher than his norm in 2007 and much lower than his norm in 2008, according to the author, lends credence to the idea that he just hit bad luck in 07 and rebounded with good luck in 08.
This argument is at odds with the frequently stated views that "Lidge needed a change of scenery" and "Lidge would have sucked again if he had stayed in Houston."
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last year the Brewers had him in some tough spots
He just kept his cool and managed to escape. I think he is an excellent pitcher skill wise, but the key to the ninth is not getting tight or frazzled when things don’t go perfectly. Seems like he would frequently give up a hit or two, maybe walk a guy on a close call or even give up a run with a 2 run lead, but he made his pitches and we all know the rest of the story.
by ol Pete on
Dec 20, 2008 10:38 AM CST
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wasn't 2006 the headcase year?
post-post-season meltdown in 2005 and lost the closer role in the first couple weeks of the year.
If I remember right he had a solid second half last year and it wasn’t a no-brainer that he would be traded until Ed Wade rode in on his broken-down mule to save the day.
by lnewcomer on
Dec 20, 2008 1:56 PM CST
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my recollection...
Lidge had a bad year in 2006, but he actually started the season out well. But he had some melt downs in the 9th inning in a May homestand (including a grand slam by Garciaparra in the 9th), blew some games in Colorado, and then had to be taken out in the 9th in LA when he couldn’t find the strike zone.. On the plane trip from LA, Garner told him that he wouldn’t be used exclusively as closer. From that point on, Lidge was in and out of the closer role. IMO, Lidge had both mechanical problems and was the tipping his pitches. In 2007, Lidge had a bad spring training and blew the first couple of games to the Pirates to start the season. He was moved out of the closer role. He worked his way back to closer by May, and then had to go on the DL with his knee issue. And, yes, he finished up pretty well in 2007. However, he did blow some saves in the second half of 2007 on HRs which angered a lot of fans. At the time, I remember posting (right here) that more than a couple of those HRs looked like good pitches and suggested he was unlucky. I think the Astros may have been influenced by the negative fan reaction. Recall the rumors in 2007 that Drayton had ordered Lidge to be traded.
by clack on
Dec 20, 2008 3:37 PM CST
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Hmmmm....provocative
That is really thought provoking. Surprisingly, most of the stats show no material changes between Astros 06/07 and Phils 08. Except the long ball. That is the beauty of numbers. They are unemotional and don’t lie. Although, I’m not sure the truth is just “bad luck”. Lidge gave up many more long balls in his last few years as a ‘Stro, and I must conclude that he was tipping his pitches. No way that “bad luck”, or more pertinently “great luck”, can account for his last season in Phillie. He MUST have been doing something slightly different to stop the gopher barrage. Too bad he couldn’t fix this in Houston. But, these weird statistical anomalies are what makes baseball great.
by DFWTrojan on
Dec 20, 2008 8:52 PM CST
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