JR Towles and Chris Johnson: Comparing their rise to the majors

by Evan Hochschild on Dec 17, 2008 11:52 AM CST in Minor League News

When Ty Wigginton wasn't tendered a contract last week, the team began to weigh their options for 2009. Geoff Blum is under contract, and figures to get a significant number of ABs at the position. After that, it's really anyone's guess. DQ mentioned that the team has their eyes on Chris Gomez, and that there are other veteran options that will be weighed this off season.

Chris Johnson is the more youthful choice, and one that the team seems to be taking seriously. After collecting a 15 XBH in 98 ABs in the AFL and posting an .870 OPS for AA Corpus Christi, Ed Wade is prepared to give the 25 year old a chance to win the starting job this spring training.

How optimistic should the team really be about Mr. Johnson? He would offer a breath of fresh air. Chris Gomez, Geoff Blum and other older players would serve as place-keepers until Johnson is ready. It would be nice to have him play well in the spring, and actually make the major league roster. Hunter Pence was denied the chance in 2007, but Ed Wade seems more willing to promote youth. We saw this willingness in his September promotion of JR Towles in September 2007. In 100 minor league games in 2007, Towles posted this line:

	AB	H	HR	OPS (Corpus Christi)	OPS (Round Rock)
JR Towles	349	100	11	.976	.633

After posting a plus 1.000 OPS in 40 major league ABs in September, he barely managed to achieve half (.503) that number in 2008.

The minor league line of Chris Johnson is as follows:

	AB	H	HR	OPS (Corpus Christi)	OPS (Round Rock)
Chris Johnson	431	129	13	.870	.539

Note the similar decline in OPS, once each player reached AAA. Johnson had 101 ABs in Round Rock this past year, whereas Towles had only 43 before he was called up in September. With Johnson struggling as badly as he did in his September stint for the Express, I wouldn't hold my breath as far as him coming into Spring Training and winning the job. As we saw from Towles' .304/.370/.500 line for Round Rock this past season, it probably will take Johnson some more time on the farm before he's ready to man the hot corner for the big league club.

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i just noticed that chris johnson had 23 errors in 80 somethin games at CC and 4 at RR while saccomanno had 24 all season at RR, i understand that saccomanno may not be completely ready defensively for the big leagues but neither is johnson if he’s committing that many errors at AA. I’d say sac is more ready defensively as has shown he is offensively. i say give him a shot before johnson so we don’t ruin johnson by throwing him to the wolves too soon

by Subber10 on Dec 17, 2008 2:53 PM CST reply actions

Not a bad idea at all

Good catch on the defensive liability.

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by Stephen Higdon on Dec 17, 2008 4:34 PM CST up reply actions

As I've mentioned before...

Chris Johnson’s K rate concerns me the most about his readiness for the ML level. K rate and BB rate are very critical stats for evaluating / projecting players at the ML level. Both Johnson and Towles are line drive hitters, not sluggers; their plate discipline will determine their offensive success at the ML level. Put simply, too high a K rate will constrain the batting average and OBP.

Johnson’s K rate and BB rate in the minors have been worse than Towles. Towles had a 7% – 10% BB rate in the minors and at least walked enough in the majors to post a 9% BB rate with the Astros last year. Johnson’s BB rate ranged between 3.4% and 5.6% in the minors so far. Towles’ K rate has been in the 13-15 % in the minors until his return to AAA last year, when it hit 16. Yet that still translated to a 23 K rate when he got to the ML level last season. Chris Johnson’s K rate at A+, AA, and AAA:
17.2, 17.0, 23.4%.

by clack on Dec 17, 2008 6:50 PM CST reply actions

chris johnson is looking more like a desperation for a good prospect every day…everyone was excited about his ability at the plate after further research, i haven’t seen much to get excited about.

maybe sutton will actually be a good prospect

by Subber10 on Dec 18, 2008 12:13 AM CST up reply actions

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