Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR): 08 Astros
by clack
on Nov 5, 2008 8:46 AM CST
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David Pinto at Baseballmusings.com has developed a defensive measurement system called Pobabilistic Model of Range (PMR).
Baseballmusings.com has begun crunching numbers for the 2008 version of the model. PMR is one of the range based defensive measures which uses play by play data. The PMR methodology has several features which are different from most zone based methods, and potentially improve its accuracy. For instance, PMR does a better job of controlling for ballpark effects. PMR also divides the baseball field into vertical slices rather than zones, and uses probabilistic concepts to determine whether fielders beat the expected value for making particular plays.
As explained by Pinto:
Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field.
PMR ranks the Astros as the 6th best defensive team in 2008. The only teams which are better, according to PMR: Blue Jays, Braves, Rays, A's, Red Sox. (Interestingly, all but the Braves among those teams are viewed as having sabermetric GMs.) The ranking basically confirms the Hardball Times' team Revised Zone Rating (RZR) rankings which have the Astros rated as tied with the Cards for best defensive teams in the NL (for the NL only, the Astros are No. 2 according to PMR). So, it's safe to conclude that the Astros had a good defensive season in 2008.
How much of an improvement for the Astros in 2008? In 2007, the Astros were ranked 25th among major league teams by PMR.
I have attempted to follow the Astros' players' defensive performance over the 2008 season. However, I have been waiting for the PMR results before I try to summarize the Astros' defensive results for the season. Normally it takes a few days for Pinto to crank out results for all of the player positions. When he has published all of those results, I intend on writing up a summary comparison of various defensive measures for individual Astros' players.
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That
Is ridiculous. For as much attention as the Rays got for the defense being the key, I guess we should have been talking more about the Astros.
Hopefully this holds.
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by DyingQuail on
Nov 5, 2008 9:10 AM CST
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what I would be interested in
is seeing the relative changes from this year to last (for the Astros) on a position-by-position basis.
In one sense, this ranking doesn’t scan. What’s the answer to the question, “what exactly did we do to get better on defense last year?” Adding Matsui is prob a + compared w/ last year. Moving Pence to RF and adding Bourn I would think would be a + (although Bourn didn’t rank v. high in any def. metrics that I saw). Was Tejada a + over the previous year? What about 3B? Were those changes really THAT significant?
However, from anecdotal evidence thru the year, we did seem to play well defensively this year. So from that perspective, the ranking does make more sense.
I guess my real question is, was this year’s ranking a fluke, or something we can realistically expect to see duplicated, assuming the lineup stays pretty much the same?
by lnewcomer on
Nov 5, 2008 12:44 PM CST
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good questions....
I’ll try to address that after all the PMR player ratings come out. Based on periodically reviewing results of other defensive models, though, I have some guesses to answer your questions. One of the biggest improvements was Berkman at 1st base, who went from below average to one of the top three defensive first basmen. It’s hard to know whether we can count on that high level in the future; optimistically I would say “yes.” Matsui had a bad defensive campaign (for him) at 2d base, but Biggio had such poor range in 07 that Matsui was an improvement. I am guessing that Matsui will be a good bet to improve the defense in 2009 (assuming he stays on the field), because most of his “bad” plays in 2008 seemed like uncharacteristic errors for him. Tejada was an improvement over the Loretta-Bruntlett-Everett combo in 07. (Will Tejada sustain his defense? Don’t know.) That likely would not have been the case, if Everett hadn’t been injured, but the replacements for Everett in 07 were poor. The Wigginton-Blum combo at 3b was an improvement over Lamb-Ensberg-Loretta-Wigginton in 07. Moving Pence to RF and putting Bourne-Erstad in CF was an improvement in the outfield defense. The real drag on the Astros defense is Carlos Lee in LF. I suspect his performance didn’t change much from 07.
I think Wade did a good job of putting decent defense on the bench, and Cooper made some good late inning substitutions (like Erstad for Lee). Some of the players on the 2007 bench (like Lamb and O Palmeiro) were not good defensive players. Erstad was really a superb defender; he provided excellent defense, whether at 1b, CF, or LF.
The obvious weak link on defense is Carlos Lee, but his status won’t change. Wigginton had a decent defensive season at 3b, but he has a history and reputation for much worse defense. If one believed that he is likely to regress in 2009, 3b would be a possible area of improvement. But really I can’t see much more which realistically will improve (except for a better year by Matsui).
When I look over the PMR data, I may give different answers, though.
by clack on
Nov 5, 2008 5:07 PM CST
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