A rundown of key free agents - Jon Heyman

"9. Ben Sheets, starting pitcher. Health is a question. (If he were surely sound, he'd be close to a $100-million pitcher himself.) As one GM said, "How can anyone give him a long-term deal?'') But they love him in Houston. My call: Astros, $28 million, two years."

That would be incredible, but I don't know if I buy he signs for that. I'll cross my fingers though. 2 years...what a godsend that would be.

To put it in perspective, assuming that Sheets only is worth 3.5 Wins Above Replacement each year of his contract, he'd be worth $29.9 million to the Astros (according to Tango Tiger).

What GM doesn't make that deal? Even if we have to push it to three years or up this contract to $30-35 million, we'd break even if Sheets can just average 160IP for those two years.

If Heyman is right about the numbers and Sheets not being able to attract more than that, Ed Wade and Drayton McLane would be ludicrous for not making that happen.

WE MAY JUST HAVE SOMETHING TO BE EXCITED ABOUT THIS OFF SEASON!!!!!

2 months ago DyingQuail Comment 15 comments 0 recs |

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Ugh.

If there was an MVP for the whole year (including the postseason), my vote goes to Mr. Perfect, Brad Lidge.

Christ. Stop it. If you absolutely must pick someone from a postseason team, then pick Chase Utley. Relievers – even the best – don’t play enough to deserve an MVP award.

Anyways, it’s cool that he thinks the Stros have a good chance of picking up Sheets. I don’t think it’s so much a question of Sheets’ willingness but one of Wade’s and Drayton’s.

He mentions that the Yankees are unlikely to re-sign Pettitte. Now, I think Pettitte is a vastly overrated pitcher, and I know he has indicated he’ll retire if New York doesn’t want him, but he’s said that before. Might be servicable as #3 in the rotation, if he accepts something closer to his pre-2006 salary.

And I just noticed this a couple weeks ago, but has anyone noticed that there’s a giant picture of Andy Pettitte in the Hobby Airport gift shop?

by Only_A_Lad on Nov 3, 2008 10:33 AM CST 0 recs

I actually think that with an injury risk pitcher like Sheets, from an economic efficiency standpoint, you may be better off with a longer contract. That being said, it all depends on what kind of injuries he’s likely to have. If you think he’s at a higher risk of a career-ending injury, you’d probably be better off with a shorter term contract.

But if you think he’s more at risk of 60 days on the DL injuries (and that he’ll be fairly effective when he’s not on the DL), you may be better off with a longer contract. This is because although you don’t have him when he’s injured, you are holding on to him for a long enough period that you are pretty sure you will have him when he’s back at full strength.

Imagine getting a 2 year contract for a pitcher who immediately gets a Tommy John worthy injury. He has the surgery and does the rehab while on your squad, but he’s a free agent again just as he’s regaining his effectiveness (if he regains his effectiveness).

Not the most solid argument, I know, but it’s still something to think about.

by AstroAndy on Nov 3, 2008 11:22 AM CST 0 recs

The theory sounds good

But if a player is oft injured, you’re screwed anyway (see: Pavano, Mulder, Carpenter, Hampton, Prior, etc.) At that point, two years looks pretty good.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Nov 3, 2008 12:01 PM CST up 0 recs

what do I know?

But those numbers seem low to me unless it includes some big escalators for performance. I would hope that the Brewers would match that offer and they are making an offer. They just committed to 10 million for Cameron and the piggy bank isn’t that big though.

by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 11:30 AM CST 0 recs

Agreed

That would have involve a ton of escalators.

by DyingQuail on Nov 3, 2008 12:00 PM CST up 0 recs

It may be optimistic to think the astros can get this deal.

Looking on the comments page for this article at BBTF, several of the commenters seemed to think that Sheets would get either a longer contract or more dollars per year if it is a 2 year contract. I think it may depend on what teams’ doctors tell them about Sheets’ medical records. If they think there is a lot of risk, maybe Sheets will have difficulty getting more than what Heyman speculates here. However, the doctors say something like what Sheets’ agent said (his injury isn’t any more severe than a pulled muscle), then I would think he can go for money than that.

by clack on Nov 3, 2008 6:57 PM CST 0 recs

I think it will come down to this

His medical records will show that his arm is fine, but teams have to be weary of the fact he’ll require the kid glove treatment from here on out. I’m sure big money teams have a risk seeking enough utility curve to take on that kind of a player, but they’ll be going hard for Sabathia if that’s there case.

If a team can coax Sheets into signing quickly, then he could be snatched up before his price gets bid up by those teams. Otherwise, he’ll go to whoever didn’t get Sabathia for more years or more money — or both.

by DyingQuail on Nov 3, 2008 7:14 PM CST up 0 recs

I don’t know if Sheets has ever had a structural injury. I suppose you could say that the torn tendon sheath in his finger was a minor one.

I would think if he doesn’t get a long contract to his liking, he would do a Lohse and go for a one year.

by ol Pete on Nov 3, 2008 7:44 PM CST up 0 recs

I doubt it comes to that

He’s never had a structural injury, but he clearly has a sharp fatigue spike at around 95 pitches which sets him up for the constant stream of nagging injuries.

Some team will offer him big bucks.

by DyingQuail on Nov 3, 2008 8:20 PM CST up 0 recs

Ugh

$14×2 sounds pricey for a guy whose health is in question. I just keep thinking rotating thoughts of “Jennings… Pettitte… Backe… Bagwell…” and get this sick feeling in my stomach on committing big bucks to somebody who might visit the DL.

How about $9+6x3? I’d be willing to do that. $9 mil base for three years, with $6 mil incentive each year. For every 10 innings over 180 or every .10 ERA under 4.5, an extra +$1 mil, up to $6 mil.

Eh?

by pel on Nov 3, 2008 8:43 PM CST 0 recs

That's a slick contract

I’d be willing to up the incentives on it to make it a $20 a mil contract if he was the balls. Good thoughts on how to structure it though.

by DyingQuail on Nov 3, 2008 8:47 PM CST up 0 recs

I think you could do the innings performance modifier

but I think either the MLBPA or MLB has rules against the ERA performance modifier.

by lnewcomer on Nov 4, 2008 2:29 PM CST up 0 recs

that's correct. quality of performance standards are not permitted by baseball rules.

incentives based on measures like number of games, number of innings, etc. are permissible. I think you can also get away with contract adjustments based on number of days on the DL (it may have to be written very carefully…but the Tigers had that in their contract with Ordonez and it was approved.)

by clack on Nov 4, 2008 7:51 PM CST up 0 recs

incentives for awards

you can get incentives for finishing in top X of MVP or Cy Young I think, or making All Star Team. I wonder if you could write an incentive, that rather than specifying a given ERA (say <= 4.5) if the term could be something like “finish in the top 1/3 in the NL in ERA”? The line between that and bonus for finishing in voting for Cy Young seems pretty blurred to me. Thoughts?

by lnewcomer on Nov 5, 2008 1:00 PM CST up 0 recs

interesting thought.

I would be surprised if the “top 1/3 in ERA” would work. I agree that it has a similarity to Cy Young award voting, but I suspect it is too obvious an attempt at using the player’s ERA to set the compensation. Another way of skirting the rule is to use a milestone as an incentive. For example, the Yankees put a 700 HR milestone feature in A-Rod’s contract, and the league approved it, even though it was viewed as questionable compliance with the rule. (Most likely the league didn’t want to kill a delicately negotiated contract of that size and importance.) But I can’t think of any milestones which are applicable to Sheets.

Truthfully, I’m not as worried about Sheets’ performance as I am about his ability to stay on the field. So, I think the most incentives would be related to innings pitched and DL time, etc. Based on the Ordonez contract, theoretically you could give the Astros an “out” in the contract
if he goes on the DL for “x” days or more as the result of elbow injury.

by clack on Nov 5, 2008 6:17 PM CST up 0 recs

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