Brandon Backe in 2008
by DyingQuail
on Nov 3, 2008 8:21 AM CST
9 comments
Few Astros had more fan-love than Brandon Backe did after the 2005 Post Season, but the post-Tommy John surgery Brandon Backe has quickly turned that fan-love in cries for his head. What went wrong for poor Backe in 2008 -- besides his brawl with the law?
There were clearly two distinct Brandon Backe's in 2008: "Flashes of the 2005 Post Season" Brandon and "Non-Tender Candidate" Brandon. The question I want to ask and answer is: why? To do that, I'm going to use Brooks Baseball's pitch/fx tool to highlight some attributes of Brandon Backe in his Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde routine.
August 6th: Astros @ Cubs:
3.1 IP, 11 ER, 6 BB, 0K, 9 H, 4 2B, 2 HR
Clearly an ugly performance for Mr. Backe. Lets see what his pitch/fx data might tell us about what went wrong.
You're looking at side view of the average trajectory of his fastball, change up, slider, curve on their way to the plate. One thing that people who have studied pitch/fx have already discovered is the importance of a curveball staying relatively close to other pitches in the horizontal plane. Otherwise, the hitter can see a clear "hump" in the curveball and tee off, foul off, or lay off accordingly. This was the result in the third in which Mark DeRose went yard off just the 5th curve ball that Backe delivered (the previous two had resulted in a walk to Aramis Ramirez). He would only throw eight all game and because he obviously did not feel comfortable with the pitch, had to rely on his less than stellar fastball.
August 11th Gaints @ Astros:
7IP, 1ER, 6K, 0BB, 4H, 3 2B
Backe changed his mind and when he walked to the mound five days later was dominant. If my loose observation/hypothesis is going to hold any water, the pitch/fx data should show his curve ball closer to the horizontal plane of his other pitches.
The difference isn't much, but clearly the curveball is tighter than it was five days prior. The important spot to look is at about 40 ft. because it's when the "information gathering" ends for a hitter. There's a huge difference at 40 ft. this start than the one that precedes it. As result of this, Backe was able to effectively mix his pitches throwing 31 curves balls vs. the 8 he had thrown the week before.
Luckily the entire month of August represents an every other week flip-flop for Backe (just about).
August 16th: D-backs @ Astros:
5.2IP, 11ER, 5BB, 6K, 9H, 3HR, 1 2B
ANNNNND it's back. Backe's curveball regains the hump and suddenly he loses deception from the pitch. His first few curveballs went well -- they were called strikes and swinging strikes. Most of the rest were balls early in the count or foul offs that prolonged the count (although, he did strike Chris Burke out swining with it...but does that count?).
August 23rd Astros @ Mets:
7IP, 3ER, 4K, 1BB, 5H, 1HR, 1 2B
Certainly a sold outing. Does the curveball hypothesis hold?
There's a clear spread between the fastball/change up and the curveball/slider, but still at 40 ft. the hitter is left guessing more so than he was in Backe's previous start. However, he only threw nine curveballs so there's not at lot to take away from this. Luckily his very next start was another brilliant performance.
August 28th Reds @ Astros:
6.2IP, 2ER, 6K, 1BB, 6H, 1 3B
That's good Backe we saw and his curveball, well it was pretty tight in the horizontal plane:
His curveball sits tight in the horizontal plane and he was dominant.
*****
So this small sample size has at least validated the idea that if his curveball had a hump in it, then he didn't fair very well, but if he kept hidden, then he was a solid top of the rotation pitcher.
To drive the point home I'm going to rattle off a few more Good Brandon / Bad Brandon starts to drive home the importance of his curveball being effective and the efficacy of the curveball being derived it not being readily apparent to the hitter.
Flashes of the 2005 Postseason Brandon:
April 22nd Padres @ Astros
He had the hump, but all 12 curves he threw were strikes. So the curve was still effective, which is really what my hypothesis is.
May 23rd Phillies @ Astros
Tight, like a tiger.
July 13th Astros @ Nationals
Ehhhhh...hump.
Non-Tender Candidate Brandon:
April 17th Astros @ Phillies
No hump because it's close to the slider, but he was all over the place apparently.
June 11th Brewers @ Astros
UGLY
September 27th Braves @ Astros
HUMP
Conclusion:
So the hypothesis wasn't perfect, but I think the pattern is apparent. Backe is a much better pitcher when he throws a tight curveball that stays hidden. Just about all the games we looked at show that if he had an effective curveball, he had a strong outing and we know from pitch/fx that two things are important for the curveball: vertical drop and the horizontal plane. Thus, it's pretty clear that if Brandon Backe wants to avoid being optioned back to Round Rock in 2009 (or just released), he needs to figure out how to have a consistently tight curveball.
Anyone who goes to Spring Training will have to report on their observations.
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Good analysis.
It may be too obvious to point out, but Backe requires much more consistent command of his fastball and curveball than he showed last season.
Backe has become a different pitcher post-surgery. He doesn’t rely on the fastball as much, which means he has to become consistently good with his curve and slider. The Backe we saw initially as an Astros pitcher seemed to have better movement and velocity on his fastball. Backe has always had control issues. I hope he can battle his way back and figure out the secret to consistency.
by clack on
Nov 3, 2008 8:17 AM CST
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The one thing I'll be hopeful for
Is that control comes back the longer they get at it. We saw Backe pitch more effectively down the stretch than we did at the beginning of the season, which hopefully indicates he’s finally feeling his pitches again. However, if he can’t regain control, he’s just deadweight.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 3, 2008 12:04 PM CST
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I take Backe's side on the brush with the law
Post -incident reports convince me the Galveston police were way out of line. I cannot accept any negative evaluation of Brandon Backe over that incident. IO wiosh you had not included it in the introduction.
I don’t make much out of the charts – one really bad showing is all I see there whereas he had many bad outings this year.
Were the bad outings a result of not being fully recovered from the surgery? or is it a sign of things to come? The answer to that question dictates Backe’s future. I don’t see him suddenly gaining more control.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on
Nov 3, 2008 2:15 PM CST
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Interesting analysis
Would be what Roy-O’s charts would look like relative to his good and bad outings.
As for Backe… I’d think he’s a low-risk guy to bring back to ST for a shot at a 5th spot in the rotation. Certainly I don’t think we should count on him for anything other than depth, but I assume he’s out of options. If he didn’t make the club out of ST, I assumed he’d have to be released and offered a minor league contract. Is that right?
by littlevisigoth on
Nov 3, 2008 6:49 PM CST
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Yeah, I'm pretty sure he'd become a free agent
And I doubt we could he get anything for him in a trade. So he’s essentially no-risk at this point.
Really, we can only hope that Backe turns into a legit #5 pitcher. There’s nothing wrong with that. But I think that what we see next season is what we’re going to get with Backe. And the fact that he has only pitched two full seasons as a starter is concerning, as well.
We can sit here and say, “If only he figures out his curve, he’ll be fine.” But he’s 30 years old. His only “upside” is that this might have been just a bad season caused by injury recovery, rather than a bad season caused by his poor skills.
It sucks, but Backe probably just isn’t a good pitcher. He’s not a good starter, and he’s not a good reliever. And, as much as it hurts to admit it, Backe’s awesome playoff appearances were probably just statistical noise.
On the other hand, Backe’s K/9 is up and his BB/9 is down slightly (since 2005). His problem is that he’s giving up an extra .5 HR/9. So maybe he’ll pull it out. But I think it’s pretty unlikely.
However, it’s interesting to note that Backe has a WARP of 1.8 with his hitting. It would be an intriguing gamble to keep Backe as a pinch-hitter/fifth OF.
by Only_A_Lad on
Nov 3, 2008 7:47 PM CST
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The home runs
presumably, have to come down. Unless he really is just that bad (I guess that’s a real possibility).
You make a good point about his dominance easily being more just noise than anything, but I hope that’s not the case.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 3, 2008 8:23 PM CST
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The more I think about it
the more I think that a good comparison can be drawn between Brandon and Jose Lima. Both were easily excitable, fly-ball pitchers with ridiculous HR counts. Both counted on a few good seasons for their entire careers.
Backe would obviously be a lesser version of Lima – he doesn’t give up quite as many home runs and he never had a season where people talked about him as a CY winner. But, like Lima, Backe might have been a good pitcher back in the Dome days, but he’s in the more unforgiving MMPUS, so his problems are more glaring. And both are disproportionately loved by fans.
Hell, Backe even broke one of Lima’s more unsightly records!
by Only_A_Lad on
Nov 3, 2008 10:22 PM CST
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the only problem with your theory....
is that Backe historically has been a much better pitcher in MMP. In 2004, he was ridiculously good in MMP, with an ERA in the low 2’s. He didn’t have an ERA at MMP above 4 in any season until 2008. Fans used to talk about Backe like they do for Wandy now….“why can you pitch on the road like you do at home?” All of Backe’s great post-season games were at home.
In 2008, Backe has a terrible ERA both at home and on the road, and marginally worse at home. But he has given up more home runs on the road than at MMP (21 to 15). I don’t have an explanation for all of this. But the numbers don’t support the idea that Backe is hurt by MMP. Perhaps what it shows is that Backe is just really bad right now, and he now pitches poorly both at home and on the road.
by clack on
Nov 4, 2008 12:50 AM CST
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HR rates
Are a luck dependent stat, to a point. I think that’s why Backe saw such a favorable gap between his DIPS RA and his true RA. If I have free time, I’ll go throw and find all his HR on the pitch/fx tool to see if there is a consistent pattern or if it’s random. Maybe we can get some concrete inferences to his struggles by next year.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 4, 2008 1:39 AM CST
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