Personally, the pitch/discipline data seems difficult to interpret unless put in the context of other hitters. So, the percentages mean more if you look at it in terms of rankings (or perhaps top or bottom quartile, etc.,). The range for some percentages are more narrow than others; so some relative benchmarks are helpful. In those terms, Pence is closer to the extremes on O swing% both this year and last year (and more extreme this year).

By the way, I would suggest that rather than stating the plate discipline stats per PA, it would be better to state them per pitch, since a change in plate discipline is likely to change the number of pitches per PA. I don’t know that it will make any difference in this case, but it’s just an observation.

What I hope to see is Hunter Pence exhibiing the power he showed in the minors. Hunter Pence’s isolated power (ISO) in the minors: .314 (A), .185 (A+), .250 (AA), .232 (AAA). In the majors, .217 (07), .196 (08). Noticing that Pence’s ISO dipped to a level similar to 08 when he advanced to A+ ball but rebounded one year later in AA, maybe that is an indication of the power increase which is possible if he can make the adjustments to major league ball.

I think there is an adjustment process for young hitters (particularly in their 2d year) as pitchers adjust to their weaknesses. Some successfully make the adjustments, others don’t. I recall that Ryan Braun faced similar problems to Pence early in 08, as he struggled early on with pitchers throwing him breaking pitches outside the zone. However, he obviously made his adjustments more quickly than Pence, since he rebounded with a very strong season. Interestingly, Braun swung at more pitches outside the zone than Pence in 08; and similar to Pence, Braun also faced less FBs than 07 and pitchers attacked him with more sliders and change ups than 07. However, Braun maintained a higher LD% than Pence in 08, and he hits more flyballs than Pence, which resulted in more HRs.

I’m not sure what to make of Pence’s very low LD% in 08. Some hitters have large fluctuations in LD% from year to year, while others have consistent LD rates. Many of the hitters with a similar low LD% in 08 were young hitters (Weeks, Brandon Philips, Quentin), so maybe this reflects their lack of comfort in the process of adjusting to ML pitchers.

I think it is possible that the Sept. performance of Pence reflects some success in adjusting to ML pitchers which will carry over to next year. In any event, I think next season is very important in determining the direction of Pence’s career. I think he is at an early enough part of the adjustment curve that we may see a significant peformance increase. However, if he continues at the current level in 09, I would be less optimistic.