Baseball Prospectus looks at the 11 best Astro farm hands
The list, by Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus (full article here):
1. Jason Castro, C
Three-Star Prospects
2. Brian Bogusevic, CF
3. Jordan Lyles, RHP
4. Bud Norris, RHP
5. Chris Johnson, 3B
6. Ross Seaton, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
7. Samuel Gervacio, RHP
8. Drew Sutton, 2B
9. Felipe Paulino, RHP
10. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP
11. Jay Austin, CF
I'll give you a hearty paraphrase from the article of the top three, but I encourage anyone who wants to read some top notch commentary like this (not to mention their array of proprietary stats and PECOTA projections), to consider getting an early Christmas present of a BPro subscription.
1) Castro: Goldstein notes that the good news about Castro is, "he's a good hitter who has a patient approach and a quick bat, with gap power to all fields. A solid defender with a plus arm," but the bad news is, "but he needs to improve his footwork behind the plate." So not a lot of bad. After Goldstein derided Castro's drafting, at the time, it seems that Castro has erased doubts in the more sabermetrically oriented scouting community. He's wasn't given an ETA, but we were warned to hold his numbers next year at High-A in context because it's a power inflationary park.
2) Boguesevic: Goldstein was very, very praiseworthy of Boggie, "He has a quick, quiet swing, with gap power that many believe will increase based on what they saw from his Tulane days. Once a burner, he's now a slightly above-average runner who plays a solid center field with an above-average arm." I mean, that's saying a lot; Goldstein also went into a lengthy discussion of Boggie's transition and how easy seems to have been. Boggie get's an ETA of sometime in 2009 -- Michael Bourn, get busy or get out.
3) Lyles: This is the guy I was most interested in reading about, because no one really knew about him on draft day. Goldstein's "the good" was very positive, "His fastball sits at an average velocity of 89-91 mph right now, and projects for plus, and he also has some feel for a curve and a changeup. His easily repeatable mechanics make for above-average command and control." The bad, was of course that he's a high-school pitching prospect, and this is the organization that coined the phrase, "TINSTAAP" (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect). Apparently the Astros are going to throw Lyles to the wolves at Low-A next year because we're taking an organizational approach to be more aggressive with our young arms. Goldstein, with the qualifier that's really too early to tell much, that Lyles should turn out to be a mid-rotation starter in a perfect world.
Interesting notes on some of the players (this was really hard to do, Goldstein just has so much insight to offer):
On Johnson:
He has excellent instincts at third base, with above-average range, soft hands, and one of the system's better infield arms.
On Seaton:
Seaton will join Lyles at Low-A Lexington, making the Legends rotation one to watch in 2009.
On Sutton:
"He'll begin the year at Triple-A, and because of the contract situations at the big-league level, chances are good that he'll start his career as a utility player."
Goldstien's final thoughts on the state of the Astros farm system:
The Astros system is one of the worst in baseball, but the addition of Bobby Heck from Milwaukee to head the scouting department and an intriguing 2008 draft gives reason for hope. True impact help from the system, however, is going to take years.
Finally, here's a link to a great interview on BPro radio with Bobby Heck providing additional insight our Top 11 prospect.
Comments
"one of the worst in baseball"
…but not the worst! I loves me some improvement.
by Only_A_Lad on
Nov 25, 2008 12:28 PM CST
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Only_A_Lad
With the glass half full outlook on life this afternoon.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 25, 2008 12:30 PM CST
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What can I say?
Thanksgiving break starts tomorrow, so I’ll soon be back in H-town. Puts me in a good mood.
On another note, I’m listening to the interview with Heck, and it certainly does clear up the choice behind taking Castro in the draft. I remember that somebody posted an interview with Castro a while back, and in it he makes it seem like the decision was something of a surprise for him. I commented that one would expect the Astros to be in better contact with their prospective 1st-round choice, so maybe Heck and Wade expected to take a different player.
Heck makes it clear that he and Wade expected to be in a different situation with the #10 pick:
“and…after the first couple of picks, usually… there’s insider information to walk you through much of the first round. That wasn’t the case this year, and our board reflected it…”
That’s interesting, and I wonder who they expected to take. But I’m glad that BPro is beginning to see that taking Castro wasn’t the crazy move they thought it was in June.
There’s also a good interview with Castro. It sheds some light on his (as well as Stanford’s) hitting philosophy, which may be why we aren’t seeing him hit for much power. Good stuff.
by Only_A_Lad on
Nov 25, 2008 12:54 PM CST
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I know Houston...
was hoping Kyle Skipworth, or Gordon Beckham would fall.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Nov 25, 2008 4:08 PM CST
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Wow, Bogusevic's ETA is 2009?!
Even if it’s just a September call up, it hard to believe with so few at bats under his belt!
by mokulen on
Nov 25, 2008 1:28 PM CST
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I’d been working on my own “Top 10”, trying to make predictions about what Baseball America would put out in January.
It was difficult for me to peg the new high schoolers (Seaton, Lyles), so I didn’t put them in my top 10, but with a few exceptions, this seems to match up with my view of the system. My only complaint really about BPro’s rankings is that they’re leaving Polin Trinidad out of the top 10, which I feel is a mistake. Also, I consider Sergio Perez a “borderline” top10 guy, so I don’t blame BPro for leaving him out…he only made my list because I had no real way of evaluating Seaton and Lyles.
by AstroAndy on
Nov 25, 2008 1:34 PM CST
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Paulino fell fast...he used to be No. 1 or 2 on most lists.
But I suppose it isn’t surprising with the injuries he had last year.
by clack on
Nov 25, 2008 2:45 PM CST
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Paulino is also 25 now, and still lacks good command. I hope they put him in the pen, and make him the closer once Valverde leaves.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Nov 25, 2008 4:10 PM CST
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One good thing
Our best propects play the positions where we need help the most.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on
Nov 26, 2008 10:18 AM CST
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There is a young shortstop in there?
at the positions we need? Did I miss the young sure fielding shortstop with a high OBP?
by byronlhsdrmr on
Nov 26, 2008 11:17 AM CST
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