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Bill James Projections

Fangraphs now shows Bill James' 2009 projections for ML batters and pitchers.  Like last year, these projections from Bill James' annual handbook complement the wide array of stats at Fangraphs.  You will find the James projections on the player page for each player.

I don't put a huge amount of stock in the projections by James, or by any other forecaster, whether it is Pecota, ZIPS, or CHONE.  But they are interesting to peruse. And comparing the projections for a particular player by various forecasters is a good way to identify players whom have a higher consensus among various projection methods, or conversely cause more divergence.   Also, projections like those by Bill James may help reign in some tendencies toward fanboy tunnel vision.  The projections may temper excessive enthusiasm about a player's future production, or perhaps bring some realism to overly harsh verdicts about players on your team who had bad years.  So, now, let's get to some of James' projections for Astros' players.

I tend to view batting average projections as less reliable, so I will stick to the OPS projections below.  Of course, you can look at all the stat projections for a player by going to the Fangraphs site.

(OPS 2009)

Berkman  .954

Lee .879

Matsui .729

Blum .671

Loretta  .729

Pence .865

Newhan  .750

Erstad  .639

Wigginton  .800

Quintero  .656

Towles  .748

Tejada .786

Bourn  .656

His projections show a few key players regressing, even though by a marginal amount in most cases.  Berkman and Lee aren't quite as good as last year, but they are still expected to post a nice OPS.  That isn't particularly surprising to me, though each could still add 70 or more points to their OPS, if we are lucky.  James' projections suggest what many of us suspected, that Wiggy had his career year last season.  Wigginton's .800 OPS would be disappointing, but still acceptable at 3d base.  The projected decline in Matsui's OPS would be even more disappointing.  The projections anticipate noticeable declines in batting average, OBP, and SLG for Kaz, but the forecasts appear to be in line with Matsui's career numbers.  We can hope that the projections don't account for an improvement in Kaz's offense which coincided with leaving New York City.  Erstad is expected to decline also, probably reflecting a trend which existed in his career before he came to Houston.

The catcher position is projected to be in better shape than perhaps we anticipate.  Certainly, I would gladly accept a .748 OPS by Towles next year.  You can look at Bourn's forecasted .656 OPS as a glass half full or half empty.  If you are inclined toward the former view, then you might be downright giddy about a 100 point increase in his OPS, and a .320 OBP which is not disastrous.  However, a sub-.700 OPS is still too low for a starting CFer, and the OBP isn't as high as you seek in your lead off man.  The Bourn projection doesn't really surprise me; a mid-.500's OPS is too low to reflect his true talent level.  My guess is that James is trusting a MLE conversion of Towles' minor league stats in order to arrive at his projection.

Let's go the starting rotation.  I will show the projected ERA and FIP.

(ERA, FIP)

Oswalt, 3.50, 3.50

Wolf 4.29, 4.45

W. Rodriguez 4.45, 4.46

Moehler  4.93, 4.78

Backe 5.49, 5.48

There is some good and bad.  Oswalt is fine.  Wolf's ERA is fine too; I would accept that ERA from him.  It's not worth $10 million/year, but I might guess a worse result. Wandy's ERA seems too high; I'm not sure if that is my fan optimism speaking or if it reflects the more in depth knowledge of an individual player that comes with being a fan.  Moehler regresses, and it's about what many of us would expect.  Backe's ERA is forecasted as horrible, albeit better than the horrendous number from last year.

Without going into detail (you can look it up, if interested), I will simply summarize the relief corps projections as quite good.  Valverde, Geary, Brocail, Sampson, and Hawkins are all forecasted to have fine years.  Wright and Byrdak are 4-ish ERA projections.  If the Astros don't re-sign Brocail, they may have a fairly big hole to fill, though, particularly if Sampson doesn't recover quickly from his surgery.

Given the weakness of the rotation projections, let's look at few plausible free agent pitcher forecasts.

(ERA, IP)

Sheets 3.39  186 IP

Garland  4.38 186 IP

Dempster 3.89  195 IP

Hampton 4.61 132 IP

Burnett 3.62  224 IP

Oliver Perez  4.53 204 IP

Lowe  3.60 206 IP

Sabbathia  3.48  240 IP

Of course, the projections don't account for Sheet's recent injury, but his forecast is good.  Garland looks like a Wolf clone.  You can see why Sabbathia and Lowe are likely to sign at a very high cost...it's a combination of great run prevention and durability.

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm going to be honest

I just don’t think Bill’s system is very good for pitchers. I just can’t buy most of those numbers. I will say this though, I hope Randy Wolf is that good if we sign him.

And good God our rotation is ugly.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Nov 14, 2008 11:51 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

The fangraphs page uses the projections of pitching components (K's, BB's, etc.)...

to calculate the projection of FIP. I find this to be an interesting way of trying to see what drives the projection method. For each Astros’ starter, other than Moehler and Wolf, the projected FIP is almost exactly the same as the projected ERA. This suggests that the projection of pitching components drives the ERA projection in most cases. The mechanics of the forecasting methods aren’t shown. But most of them have some kind of adjustment for pitchers who are forecasted to beat the ERA which is normally associated with the pitching components. This may be based upon age, history, or some other pitching profile. In any event, it would appear that Wolf and Moehler fall within this profile, at least based upon the James methodology.

by clack on Nov 16, 2008 11:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pence .865

Wow, I’d be really ecstatic to see that from Pence. I mean I know he skipped AAA and he stood to struggle a bit in 2008 but the comparisons to Jeff Francoeur kind of scare me a little.

by mokulen on Nov 15, 2008 12:08 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

yes, I forgot to say something about the Pence projection.

If James’ projections were to come true, you would have to say that the Towles and Pence OPS would be the most exciting outcomes. A young catcher with a mid-700’s OPS and a young RFer with an upper 800’s OPS would be something for the team to build on in the future. James’ system likes Pence; it projected a .890’s OPS last year, and has backed off a bit this year. I still feel that Pence is at a crossroads year in which he will determine the directions of the future projections.

by clack on Nov 15, 2008 8:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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