Driving home a point: Why the Astros shouldn't re-sign Randy Wolf
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 14, 2008 12:15 AM CST
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PrintMost of the baseball world laughed at Ed Wade and Drayton McLane when they traded for Randy Wolf at the trade deadline and claimed it would be enough to put the Astros in playoff contention. Looking at his ERA of 3.57 with the Astros, one would assume that Randy Wolf definitely helped us make the push and should be re-inked to shore up our pitiful starting rotation. As has been discussed at length by many people, me included, ERA is one of the worst things to look at to appraise a pitchers performance. So lets take a gander at what was going on under the hood of Randy Wolf's ERA to demonstrate how ludicrous of a signing he would be.
I'll use my calculations using the DIPS 3.0 method, stat corner's tRA* (a regressed to the mean evaluation, click here for a detailed explanation), xFIP, and then Colin Wyer's MARCEL projection of his tRA*:
| Tool | Result |
| DIPS 3.0 | 5.04 |
| tRA* | 4.67 |
| xFIP | 4.49 |
| Proj. tRA* | 4.93 |
These numbers represent measures of Wolf's true talent in his tenure with the Astros (or in the case of the projection, his last two years, I believe) and they indicate that my reference to Wolf being a fluke yesterday wasn't far off the mark. The thing that is truly distressing is that Wolf's MARCEL projection indicates that the lightening in a bottle he captured (primarily through a 75.4% LOB% and a HR/FB rate of 8.7) are unsustainable in the long run -- especially his incredibly low home run rate. There was nothing outside of his luck inflated strand rate and home run rate that would suggest that Wolf can possible replicate his limited success an Astros uniform (his K/9 dipped slightly, but so did his BB/9 to offset it). Further, his injury history calls into question the ability for Ed Wade to even legitimize this signing as an attempt to hold onto an innings eater. Clack recently complied a quick way of demonstrating Wolf's innings eating capabilities:
WOLF (since 2004)
Average IP 113
High IP 189
Low IP 56
Sure, average isn't the best measure of central tendency, but it gets to point across: Wolf missed a significant amount of time because of shoulder injury. His last surgery dealt with a frayed labarum -- not a good thing.
The numbers certainly don't hold a lot of positives for Randy Wolf. At this point, I have to wonder how Ed Wade gets to hold his job if he's not paying someone to check a few sites and crunch a few numbers to tell him that (if he's looking for someone, tell him I graduate in May). There's just no excuse or valid reason for re-signing Randy Wolf. Doing so is just one terrible gamble given what we know of its expected value: 4.93 tRA*
In an effort to create some interactivity I'm now including a poll:
13 comments
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Comments
Man
I can’t even get an entropic soul Ben Sheets chant?
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
BEN SHEETS BEN SHEETS BEN SHEETS
I’m waiting to hear something.. it’s Friday.. there should be some kind of news that Wade has made some kind of offer to Sheets already. Wade, Oswalt, Sheets and his agent all sitting down for breakfast this morning.. something like that.
by entropic soul on Nov 14, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I keep checking my RSS feeds
And nothing. If it weren’t Friday, I’d be super depressed.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 14, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I keep checking around the interent...
Sheets is such an obvious choice since he wants to play here and Wade wants to do something right away. I’m hoping we’ll hear something right away.
by entropic soul on Nov 14, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions
It's like Ed Wade has no conception
Of markets work. He’s got to get in there before Sheets finds out what his true demand and becomes too expensive for Drayton McLane’s stinginess.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 14, 2008 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
Ben Sheets
If the Astros sign Ben Sheets and rsign Wolf this would make there rotation look like this…
1 Roy Oswalt
2 Ben Sheets
3 Randy Wolf
4 Brandon Backe
5 Wandy Rodriguez
This roation would be tough but a little shaky after the third pitcher. Maybe they could use a 4-man roation and have Oswalt pitch every 4 days instead of 5.
The Trade-Maker
I'm so glad someone already chose the last option on the poll.
The answer: become the apple of Ed Wade’s eye.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Someone goes with good investment...interesting
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
So Ed Wade DOES read the blog.
Neat.
by entropic soul on Nov 14, 2008 7:40 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
HAHAHA
That deserved a rec. Thank you for that.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 14, 2008 11:10 PM CST reply actions
And that should have have been a reply
My apologies.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 14, 2008 11:11 PM CST up reply actions
"Good Investment"
It was a good invstment saying that it gave the Astros some lefty’s in a rotation were the best lefty is wandy Rodriguez. It was kind of bad saying that they had to give up Chad Reinke for him. The Astroshad a chance tog et to contention with Randy wolf. Resign him to a 1 year 5.5 Million dollar deal and see what happens.
The Trade-Maker
But that's not possible
He’s going to get multi-years and a lot more dough than $5.5 million per year.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 15, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
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