Baseball Prospectus has positives to say about the Astros- seriously
by HighLeveragePerformer
on Nov 10, 2008 5:20 PM CST
33 comments
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus ran through an AFL update today, and included some thoughts about a couple Astro farmhands:
Just running through some other guys: Brad James filled the Troy Patton/Chad Reineke spot as a random Astros pitcher I saw and liked, and seems like he can be a 1.5-pitch guy in the majors.
and what's more....
Brian Bogusevic's transition is going well, though he's not a center fielder in any way, shape, or form. The Astros can trade Hunter Pence and improve a little bit.
Sheehan is a guy who tears the Astros to pieces on a fairly consistent basis. So, this bit of news on James is especially nice to hear. As far as Bogusevic is concerned...I don't really know if I'm ready to trade Hunter Pence quite yet. If Brian can show continued promise in the AFL, and then come up and wow the Astros in Spring Training, I'd be more confident in his abilities to be a major leaguer. That's not to say I'm in love with Hunter Pence, either. He seems to be the kind of guy that may never turn out to be more than what we saw last year. Hopefully he gets his OBP up to around .340, but even then, his ability to be a stud is limited.
What does everyone think? Here's what perculating in my head:
Has Bougy shown enough to be a legitimate corner outfielder in the majors? He has zero home runs in the AFL thus far, and had only three in 124 AB's in AA this past season.
Does Wade make a move that allows a CF prospect to head this way to pair with Bourn at some point?
Has Pence tipped his hand, so to speak? Is this all we're going to get out of him, besides a slight uptick in OBP?
What could the market for Hunter Pence yield? Is he worth a top tier prospect? Would it be possible to get that right handed bat in CF from a Pence trade?
Does Brad James deserve a shot to make the major league roster in 2009? What role can he fill?
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Respond to some of your questions:
Can Bogey be a legitimate starting RFer, given his lack of HR power so far?
I’ve already stated that I think he would be more like a 4th outfielder from what I see so far (assuming he cannot be a legitimate CFer). That’s not all bad; he might be like some valuable “super subs” for the outfield, like David Delucci, Skip Schumaker, or Frank Catanalotta. I think he needs to be at least a 15-20 HR player to start in a corner OF slot. Of course, if he can put up a .850 OPS with fewer than 15 HRs, that would be OK, but that is a rare combination (Xavier Nady and Brian Giles hit fewer than 15 HRs but posted a good OPS). Fukudome hit only 10 HRs, but as we know, his lack of power production is leading the Cubs to move him to CF.
Hunter Pence’s future?
I think Pence is coming to a crossroads type season. Does his poor plate discipline lead him down a disappointing and ultimately declining route (like Francouer)? Or will he become a more selective hitter and possibly become an All Star type outfielder? I don’t know the answer. I think it is unlikely he will become a superstar, like he we may have dreamed after the 07 season. But I think there is a decent chance that he will become a productive starter with a good career. There is also the chance of decline and a short career, as I mentioned. I wouldn’t be afraid of trading him if you get an offer too good to pass up. But I wouldn’t trade him just to make room for Bogusevic, either.
by clack on
Nov 10, 2008 6:06 PM CST
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pence
is not worth trading right now, if you’re only trading him to make room for bogusevic.
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 6:21 PM CST
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I'd like to see some numbers on his defense or see him in person
before I agree with Sheehan on his defense. No question the guy will have a canon, so if he has any kind of range, he can’t be that bad in CF. If he doesn’t have HR power, I imagine he’ll have gap power and get some XB’s, so I can see him becoming a Nady or a Giles.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 7:10 PM CST
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I'd like to see some numbers on his defense or see him in person
Before I take Sheehan at his word.
I think however that he can be a Nady or Giles type though. He did SLG .500+ in AA this year.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/brian-bogusevic.shtml
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 7:13 PM CST
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Well
It didn’t look like I had posted anything so I kind of repeated myself. My apologies.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 7:22 PM CST
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Also
.297 .371 .477
Bougy’s triple slash from BPro’s MLE:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/pageTexreg.php
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 7:25 PM CST
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Brad James on the roster next year?
Seems doubtful to me, since he has only been as high as AA. With 1.5 pitches, I don’t see how he could help other than as a reliever. With his sinker, I suppose it’s not out of the question that he could be a ML reliever.
But consider these stats (courtesy of FirstInning.com) for James at Corpus Christi last year:
RA/9 5.03
FIP 5.02
Base Runs/9 5.29
That makes me skeptical that he is ready for the big leagues.
by clack on
Nov 10, 2008 6:17 PM CST
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ive seen
similar numbers on him. bud norris has received less attention than james, but his stats from fangraphs lead me to think that he may be somewhat more ready than james
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 6:23 PM CST
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sergio perez
http://firstinning.com/players/Sergio-Perez-a/
does he offer anything in the next few years?
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 6:30 PM CST
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Ahh, Joe Sheehan
Odd that he doesn’t mention Sutton. What’s up with that?
And BPro has other good things to say about the Astros’ offseason moves:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8295#HOU
by Only_A_Lad on
Nov 10, 2008 6:38 PM CST
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I think the BPro writers
Were contractually obligated to rip on Wade and thus we just took a beating this year. I imagine the good will to Space City will increase as our farm system improves though.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 6:57 PM CST
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The guy that is one of the leaders in the AFL in errrors, Sutton?
The dude should be a 1B/DH or LF…
Sutton with 7 errors in 24 G in the AFL….
Chris Johnson 7 errors in 20 G in the AFL,,,
They both only trail Ian Desmond, Ivan De Jesus, and Emmanuel Burriss with 9 and Steven Tolleson with an amazing 11 in 16 games….
I am starting to wonder about Johnson at 3rd as well… That or the 1B for Scottsdale is horrible.. He does have 5 errors as well.
by laxtonto on
Nov 11, 2008 5:45 PM CST
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Bogusevic won’t be starting for the Astros out of Spring Training unless there’s a serious shakeup on the major league roster. From what I hear, the brass is right now concerned with getting him in shape to play a full 162 games.
Ankiel spent all of 2005 in A and AA, and wasn’t able to grab a roster spot in Spring Training 2006…he had to go back down to AAA, where he got injured a quarter of the way into the season. Bogusevic has been playing outfield for less time than Ankiel did, so I imagine the Astros would rather make doubly sure that he’s the real thing (he’s barely had 200 at-bats as an outfielder), and keep a close eye on his conditioning to make sure he adjusts well to everyday playing.
by AstroAndy on
Nov 10, 2008 6:50 PM CST
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good point astrosandy
i never thought about conditioning. that’s also an interesting comparison- ankiel-bougy.
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 6:57 PM CST
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rick ankiel
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/rick-ankiel.shtml
in 2005, SLG%’s of: .514 (A), .515 (AA), .568 (AAA)
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 7:02 PM CST
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If we get Rick Ankiel value
From Bougy…I just drooled.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 7:08 PM CST
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ankiel was 25, 26 in 2005 too...
just sayin’
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 7:10 PM CST
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bougy has had far fewer minor league seasons under his belt
at the point where he became a full time hitter than did ankiel. he still has some growing up to do, assuredly.
by HighLeveragePerformer on
Nov 10, 2008 7:15 PM CST
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I'd like to see how he does in September
After a season in AA and AAA. 2010 wouldn’t be out of the question for Bougy to make a run at a roster spot, but I think we’ll be waiting on him to mature until 2011. Maybe we can then trade away Pence who’ll still be that elusive batting eye away from stardom and complement a Castro/Bougy yield with a solid arm and perhaps return to relevance.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 7:01 PM CST
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If we hold pat this offseason (offering no long contracts) I think we might see a lot of our youngsters in 2010/11.
- Wigginton and Tejada hit free agency after the 2009 season, and Chris Johnson has been doing OK at 3B
- Kaz’s contract is up after the 2010 season and Drew Sutton has been putting up some gaudy numbers (though his MLE doesn’t look too good)
- It’ll be make-or-break time for some of the young pitchers…Bud Norris, Brad James, Felipe Paulino
- Towles and Bourn will have had another season to figure things out, and if they don’t then Castro and Bougusevic will be there putting pressure on them
- I think Valverde will be a free agent for the first time, too after the 2010 season
by AstroAndy on
Nov 10, 2008 8:39 PM CST
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Since 2011 will be a big year
In terms of losing contracts, here’s a link to potential FA in 2011:
http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency11.php
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 10:05 PM CST
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Drew Sutton's MLE
I don’t know if there’s another system out there to calculate it, but I’ve been using this thing.
It shows an OPS of 723, which is slightly worse than Tejada. Not encouraging, but not terrible, either. Particularly since we probably won’t be paying Sutton $15 million.
Bogusevic’s equivalent numbers look good, but he hasn’t had anything near the number of PAs that Sutton has had, so take the numbers with a big heaping pile of salt. For what it’s worth, Bogusevic projects as a .295/.354/.427 hitter.
MLE is a fun stat to play with, but I don’t put too much faith in it. Particularly with Bogusevic.
by Only_A_Lad on
Nov 10, 2008 10:20 PM CST
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BPro has two methods
A regular translation which pegs Sutton’s production at Corpus at:
.236 .316 .400
That was good for a translated .250 EqA which is right in line with replacement level. So not too shabby if you discount the fact that he’s a 25 year old at AA.
And a peak translation:
.236 .315 .400
Again, a .250 EqA.
I will also note that I have no idea what the distinction between peak and regular is and admittedly no next to nothing about MLE’s.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 11:15 PM CST
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Maybe it's just me
But after my dissapointing 2007 gamble on Crawford in fantasy baseball, I’m just not that high on him. If he ever develops that elusive power we were promised, I’ll change my tune.
Though, if he wants to come home at a slight discount, lets do it.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 11:18 PM CST
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MLE Calculator you linked to
From the park factors they’re using, it looks like Whataburger Field down in Corpus is really home run friendly (park factor =1.12). The severe reduction in homers is probably what’s killing his OPS in the calculator. But that may be misrepresentative if Sutton is really tattooing the ball…we’d need to see how many of his homers would be a homer no matter which park he was in.
Just for grins, I plugged Hunter Pence’s year at Corpus into the calculator
Actual at CC: 28 HR, 890 OPS
Translated to Minute Maid using MLE: 20 HR, .682 OPS.
Actual #s, first full year: 25 HR, .784 OPS
by AstroAndy on
Nov 10, 2008 11:39 PM CST
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Good catch
It speaks to a few of Tango Tiger’s critique of most MLE systems, which is why I’ve never really spent the time to truly understand what’s going on inside them.
http://www.tangotiger.net/hateMLEs.html
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 11:44 PM CST
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Minor League talent
Our minor league system has been shredded the past couple of years and although it’s still bad….. we seem to be getting a little bit of praise. It seems like our top prospects are Bougy, Sutton, James, Perez & Norris. While they all could contribute in the majors no scout or writer thinks they’ll be stars.
I’m high on Bougy. Even if he doesn’t develop power…. he has good plate discipline and obviously can make good contact with the ball. I wouldn’t mind having a corner OFer that hits for a high AVG., high OBP, can run a bit & has a strong arm. A player like that is very valuable as long as you have power someplace else in the lineup (and the Astros do).
On another note…. I definitely don’t advocate trading Pence but the number 1 objective is to do what’s best for the team now and in the future. I’m bias towards Pence because of how he plays but keeping him might not be in the best interest of the organization. … the best way for the Astros to get pitching is to trade Pence. He has the most value and somebody would definitely entertain the idea of acquiring Pence for SP. If we could get a young pitcher that’s under control for many years (like Peavy or what about Zack Greinke or Matt Cain) then that would obviously benefit the team this year but also in many years after that (actually i think Greinke has 2 years left on his contract… but stay with me here). If you find a veteran fill in for RF this year and let Bougy have another year in the minors he could be an option in 2010. Also, Carl Crawford has 1 more year on his contract and will be a free agent after ‘09. We all know he’s from here and has stated publicaly that he’d like to play here. After the ‘09 season Tejada’s contract will be up so we could use that money to sign Crawford.
Basically what I’m saying is that we need to get pitching and trading Pence seems like the best way…. plus there seems to be multiple options in the future.
by Rhombus67 on
Nov 10, 2008 11:12 PM CST
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Maybe it's just me
But I’m just not huge on Crawford. It definitely stems from my bitterness from a bust year from in 2007 for fantasy baseball, but unless he develops that power we were all promised, he’s just another outfielder with speed.
If he’s willing to take a hometown discount, then I say lets do it, though.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 10, 2008 11:20 PM CST
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Bust year in 07?
Try his awesome top 20 production this year.
If we’re lucky, we might be able to unload Lee to help with Crawford and keep Pence with Bourn (yes, he lives) and Bogusevic maybe hunting for the last OF spot. Not getting my hopes up though.
by jonthefon on
Nov 11, 2008 1:25 AM CST
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I should redefine bust
In terms of taking him in the first round.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Nov 11, 2008 2:30 AM CST
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Dont’ know if there’s anyway we can unload Lee & and don’t know if I’d want to… I know the guy’s big and is making a ton of cash ….but he can hit & in only 2 years of service time he is one of the best Outfielders we’ve ever had.
It would however be nice to have an outfield of Pence, Crawford & Bougy (if Bougy is the real deal). Besides Pence…… there wouldn’t be much power in the outfield but I’d take it in a second. Young, fast & they can all hit in their own right.
But we’ve got C. Lee and he’s not going anywhere for the next couple of years (I don’t think that’s a bad thing either) so we better enjoy him.
by Rhombus67 on
Nov 11, 2008 10:35 AM CST
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I'm all for unloading Lee
Of course, it’d have to be a good deal with some salary relief and I would miss exclaiming “EL CABALLO” everytime he does something awesome, but dealing him before his deal is up would work.
by jonthefon on
Nov 11, 2008 4:51 PM CST
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