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Why the Astros NEED Another Great Pitcher and Why that Pitcher Might Not Be Ben Sheets

Almost a month ago, I posted this chart:

Pitcher DIPS RA-DIPS
Roy Oswalt 4.18 (-).35
Brian Moehler 5.03 (-).29
Randy Wolf 4.80 (-).07
Brandon Backe 5.32 .84
Wandy Rodriguez 4.09 .17

It's the final Defense Independent Pitching Runs Allowed Averages and their differential from the actual Runs Allowed Average for the Astros pitcher's in 2008.  A few things should pop off the chart:

1) Roy didn't have a good year.  But for reasons we've already hashed out -- he was most likely injured early on -- we'll give him a flier on the year.

2) We definitely saw the upper limit of Brian Moheler's ability this season.

3) Randy Wolf wasn't that good of a pitcher.

4) Brandon Backe probably should have done a lot better than he did -- though better is a relative term.

5) Wandy Rodriguez has what it takes to be a legitimate number two next year -- this analysis proves that contention.

Looking at the potentially unchanged rotation going into next year is frightening.  We'd have an Ace, and a No. 2, and then three number five or worse pitchers.  We'd have to pray that Alberto Arais or Felipe Paulino could slot in somewhere in the void and that Moehler repeats his ridiculously lucky season.

If the Astros want to go to war with that, more power to Ed Wade and Drayton...their glasses must really be tremendously half full.

The rest of us see this and think: something's got to be done.  I've made my case on here for the fact that Ben Sheets might represent an exploitable market inefficiency because of his well publicized injury woes in September.  Looking at his usage data, it was clear that he was abused and most likely strained his forearm as the result of this -- an injury expert even backed me up on this claim.

All the while though, I've been moving forward talking about how we need a top tier FA because our DIPS indicate we're going to suck, but I never even bothered to look at the guy I was already championing as our big splashy FA signing.  When I finally realized that this afternoon, here's what I found:

 

Player DIPS RA-DIPS
Ben Sheets 4.37 (-)1.01

 

He'd be our clear number three for about 3 years and $45 million.  His line drive rate and home run rate were absurdly low, which is why there is such a large gap.  He might be able to find a middle ground, but the health and luck make me too skeptical.  So there you go, I'm rescinding my support for Ben Sheets to get inked by the Astros; which sends me back to my fake GM drawing board.

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jose

lima is available.

by Evan Hochschild on Oct 24, 2008 5:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

as is Mike Hampton

I’m pretty sure that the Mets will let us have Wagner, and Richard Hidalgo is playing in one of the minor leagues. We can reconstruct the 1999 Astros! Sweet!

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 24, 2008 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

is Tim Bogar

available? Carl Everett too?

by Evan Hochschild on Oct 24, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Move

you know, rescinding your support.

Did you know that Sheets’ career OPS against at Minute Maid is .769? That includes a .467 SLGa: it’s hard to argue that Sheets is even an average pitcher in Houston. And then the injuries, ay-yi-yi, forget about it.

But how about the guy who’s petitioning Roy O to get his owner to do sumpin’?

  • Jake Peavy

 RA 2.95
 DIPS 2.85
Diff -.1

Heard Gammons talking about Peavy this morning, and there was, I think significantly, no mention of “Houston” or “Astros” or even “Ed Wade.” So I know the probabilities are low, but I’m gonna clutch it tight until it’s dead . . .

Alright, time to deport Bourn.

by rastronomicals on Oct 24, 2008 7:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Jake Peavy is a great pitcher

But he doesn’t make sense for us because of his tremendously high opportunity cost. It would be great if we could acquire him for next to nothing, but it’s just not going to happen in a manner that ever justifies the trade off.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 24, 2008 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gammons was on ESPN, right?

Would you expect to hear much besides “Boston” or “New York”?

by Xan on Oct 25, 2008 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ZIPS projections were recently published for Brewers' players.

So, for what it’s worth, here is what ZIPS projects for Sheets in 2009:

Most Likely: 3.41 ERA ERA+ of 128.

Optimistic (15% chance): 2.64 ERA. ERA+ of 166.

Pessimistic (15% chance): 4.32 ERA ERA+ of 101.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_milwaukee_brewers/

by clack on Oct 24, 2008 7:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If we could get that out of him

I’d be all over it, but I really think he’s going to see a regression next year after you take into account the over use last year, the fact he’ll likely get used inappropriately again, and that he’s due for a regression to the mean any how.

We’ve got to come up with something though.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 24, 2008 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be surprised if he was back with the Brewers

I guess I’d say he was mis-used rather than over used. He pitched about 200 innings. I didn’t get the impression that he was particularly lucky with a lot of warning track shots. I think he suffers from being a strike out pitcher which means high pitch counts. Wherever he ends up he won’t have Ned Yost, so that’s a positive. He also has been a fastball/curveball pitcher. He does have 2 curveballs or perhaps the same one that he throws at two velocities. But this year after trying repeatedly over the years, he developed a successful change-up. I’ll bet wherever he goes, he has a good year.

by ol Pete on Oct 24, 2008 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets' ZIPS projection....

represents a regression in his performance, compared to 2008. 3.05 vs. 3.41 ERA. The size of that movement is pretty typical of regression to the mean. Yet, even with regression incorporated, the resulting 3.41 ERA is still pretty good.

Both Peavy and Sheets are classic flyball/strike out pitchers. I would prefer Peavy, but that may be unrealistic, even though it will depend on how firm Peavy will be on limiting where he will play. The Braves’ GM said they wouldn’t give up their top prospects for Peavy, which ought to make the Astros feel a little bit better.

Lowe is another good free agent possibility, but I tend to think he will be overpriced for his age and performance. The reason I say that is because his name seems to appear near the top of all the big market (e.g., Red Sox, Yankees) teams’ shopping lists.

by clack on Oct 25, 2008 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But the

4.36 RA is the regression to the mean, you’re hoping for a HUGE gap between ERA and RA.

I’m going to get on the anit-Lowe wagon, because we don’t need another late thirties guy just waiting to break down in our rotation.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 25, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy 4.36 RA as a point estimate for the future....

based on a regression to the mean. Look at Sheets’ history of runs allowed. His RA from 2004 to 2008: 3.23, 3.79, 3.99, 3.95, 3.36. (And looking at FIP: 2.52, 3.26; 2.47, 4.10, 3.42). With 4.36, you are projecting something outside of his career performance. That doesn’t meet my definition of regression to the mean.

ZIPS doesn’t show an accompanying RA projection. But, given the fact that the Brewers have a worse defense than the Astros, his projected ERA would most likely be lower with the Astros’ defensive alignment.

by clack on Oct 25, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

like Roy (probably)

his numbers reflect several starts where he was pitching injured – what that does for his statistical evaluation I don’t know

by ol Pete on Oct 25, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a good point

I think that evaluation is probably above my pay grade and intro-statistics education.

From tracking Roy’s DIPS game by game since August, I noticed that the most one start ever impacted his DIPS was two tenths of run, at it was one his complete games. I’d imagine that most, losing those starts where he was affected by the forearm strain, he drops to a 4.20-4.25, which still doesn’t portend to great things.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 25, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I back the signing of Ben Sheets (should it occur)

I’m going on record with this just like I said Brian Moehler should have been our fifth starter from the get go last Spring. :)

I think we should go with Oswalt, Sheets, Wolf, Wandy and Moehler next year.

Of course, replace any of those guys with Peavy if you could, of course, but that is unrealistic. Sheets and Wolf are realistic options if Uncle Drayton decides to loosen the purse strings just a little bit.

by entropic soul on Oct 25, 2008 1:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

DQ: Looks like there’s a big difference between your DIPS and Fangraphs’s FIPs:

Roy O:
- DIPS: 4.18
- Fangraphs: 3.80

Wandy:
- DIPS: 4.09
- Fangraphs: 3.62

Moehler:
- DIPS: 5.03
- Fangraphs: 4.57

Wolf (Padres/Astros #s):
- DIPS: 4.80
- Fangraphs: 4.17

Backe:
- DIPS: 5.32
- Fangraphs: 5.87

Sheets:
- DIPS: 4.37
- Fangraphs: 3.38

Why would Fangraphs be so much more generous (except in Backe’s case)?

by AstroAndy on Oct 25, 2008 10:59 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

P.S. Are you calculating DIPS by hand/Excel or are you getting them from somewhere online? I tend to focus on offense when I’m looking at stats, so I’m not well-versed in pitching evaluations.

by AstroAndy on Oct 25, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

FIP

Is a different measure than DIPS. The correlation between DIPS and FIP is actually worse than the correlation between FIP and ERA. DIPS, the way I’m calculating it in Excel using the formula developed by the HBT, has the highest correlation between itself and next year’s ERA (0.80!!). Here’s a link to my original discussion of DIPS.

FIP is a very simple and still useful measure, but it’s limited and primarily just favors anyone with decent K/9; DIPS includes so much more information that it’s hard to beat.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 25, 2008 11:11 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry

I don’t know how that didn’t end up as a reply.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 25, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have that problem, too sometimes…I think it’s because the normal “post a comment” box stays on the page and it looks almost exactly like the reply comment box

by AstroAndy on Oct 25, 2008 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, I see now where your DIPS measure is more nuanced

It’s sometimes confusing to figure out what people mean when they say DIPS…some people appear to be using it to mean a specific measure using a particular formula…other people seem to be using it as just a broad category that includes FIP and a bunch of other (pick a letter)IP statistics. And even when they’re using to mean a particular formula, these formulae have undergone slight modifications over time.

Is there any place I can grab DIPS (3.0) info without having to maintain my own spreadsheet?

by AstroAndy on Oct 25, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with the premise that adding information increases accuracy

“Information” usually means adding a statistic with its inherent flaws and supposing a mathematical adjustment. As an example consider zone ratings, conceptually flawed IMO and amended by insane extensions of the formulas of its various incarnations in attempts to increase its accuracy. What is the adjustment to Miguel and JJ for their 1st basemen? Prince isn’t as bad as many say, but he’s still not good. Houston has a pretty good one. How about the calculation for defensive shifts? How about the calculation for 3rd basemen who range into SS territory? Ditto for 2nd basemen? What about park factors for infielders, a real and little discussed factor?

Adding formulas for all those things won’t fix it. I hear people talk about ways FIP is good or DIPS is good. Its an esoteric conversation that limits discussion because few really know what they are along with the underlying flaws of the measure. It might be better always or sometimes, I don’t know, but making assumptions and attempting making mathematical corrections don’t necessarily equate to success or superiority.

[insert picture of rocket crash here]

by ol Pete on Oct 25, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

understand your point about zone ratings and similar defensive metrics...

but it’s the best we’ve got to work with. Generally, I think the results of the systems are pretty good, but they can be flawed for individual players. Sometimes you will find that the 3 or 4 major defensive measurement systems disagree dramatically about a player’s defense, and skepticism is justified in those cases. For some of the systems (this depends on the data collection supplier), LF defensive measures tend to be suspect for certain ballparks like Minute Maid and Fenway. Then people add “adjustments” to Manny’s and Carlos Lee’s defensive numbers, because they aren’t really quite as bad as the data indicates. Again, I understand some skepticism there.

I have always been curious about the impacts of having a very good or very bad fielder adjacent to a fielder. I think players will adjust their positioning sometimes to offset or take advantage of the deficiencies/superiorities of the player next to them. For instance, I used to hypothesize that Berkman’s bad zone ratings at 1st base in the past were due to Biggio’s poor range, which caused Berkman to try to make more plays toward the 2d base hole. Now that Biggio is gone, Berkman’s RZR is tremendously good. Could be coincidence, or maybe not.

I don’t know about the issue of controlling for infield differences between ballparks. However, PMR (results are released after each season) which is devised by BaseballMusings.com will account for this factor (in theory at least). PMR is the only method which compares fielders only at their home ballparks to all the opposing players fielding at the same ballpark. That may introduce some other issues, but it does deal with the point you brought up.

by clack on Oct 25, 2008 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

first baseman

One guy who makes a tremendous difference (in my estimation) is Lee with the Cubs. That guy snags would be errors every game sometimes a bunch of them. He’s tall, moves around the bag really well and digs really well.

The infield thing is kind of obscure. Not much is written about it, but the length and type of infield grass is mentioned a lot. None other than Troy Tulowitzki said the Rockies grass helps him a lot. I heard him say that in an interview around the WS last year. McCarver and Buck talked about them cutting it long IIRC. The Brewers changed out their infield this year and among reasons they gave was because it played more “true.”

It’s really a small data point, but I just think that it is another example of factors that are difficult to compute or aren’t computed for at all.

I can’t argue about DIPS or FIP, especially when they start getting plus signs or Xs appended. That’s sort of my point as well: the esoteric nature of them limits discussion.

It also means Quail could be exactly right and I am contrary and cynical.

by ol Pete on Oct 25, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it makes you feel any better

DIPS uses league average results for batted ball types to determine the number of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, and outs that the pitcher would give up. So the points you raise kind of just get averaged out.

I don’t think that DIPS is the final word on pitching, but I think it’s one of the best tools available right now for saying how well a pitcher actually pitched. tRA is another good one that has gained popularity around some other SBN blogs, but I still think DIPS gets more what the fundamental question is asking.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 25, 2008 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think one year of DIPS is adequate to project future performance.

There is a reason why all major projection systems, like PECOTA, ZIPS, CHONE, etc., use career data, and sometimes even adding minor league data, in forecasting future performance. Some of the systems include adjustments for players who consistently beat their DIPS results. Most of the systems incorporate age and expected career path curves, etc. I can’t say that I am an advocate of any particular projection system. The choice of the most recent data vs. more data (longer term) is always an issue in statistical forecasting. But I would be very cautious in extrapolating last year’s DIPS results into a forecast of future performance, particularly in a case where the outcome is a forecast outside the range of past results for the player.

by clack on Oct 25, 2008 12:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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