Game Hero, 44 - 57

by rastronomicals on Jul 25, 2007 10:08 PM CDT in News

Carlos Lee

2 for 4, solo homer, single
Stolen base
Deked Jeff Kent and turned a double into an out
Great play on Garciaparra, turned a double into a single
.195 WPA

Matt Albers had phenomenal stuff tonight. I tend to get carried away, so when I say that I think no Astro starter this year has had such good stuff during any start, take it with a grain of salt, humor me.

Albers has for the most part been lights out since returning from Round Rock, and this game consolidated it for those fans who'd been slow to notice.

Fangraphs tell us that Matt had the highest Win Probability Added of any Astro, but I can't go there: no matter how good his five innings were (and he had a 65 Game Score, so they were plenty good), I just can't drop the Game Hero thang for barely more than half a game.

So once you eliminate Matt, it's Carlos, 'cause he did everything else. He hit home runs, he played defense, he stole bases, he even mugged for the camera with the guy who gave up the moonshot that tied the game.

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53.10% win probablity

for the Astros on thursday's game vs the Padres at home. 2000 game simulations were ran at the DodgerSims blog.
vr, Xei

Go Dodgers!

by Xeifrank on Jul 26, 2007 12:15 AM CDT reply actions

So

you ran 2000 iterations to tell us that it's basically a coin flip, plus a couple points for the Astros being at home?

We already knew that. . . . at a certain point the information expressed is not worth the effort that it took to generate it, you know?

While this blog is not above saying something like, "with one out in the eighth down 5 - 1 at Chavez Ravine, our win probability is 4.8%," I'm pretty sure we've never invoked WPA to express the idea that it's more or less 50/50.

However, we understand what you're trying to get at, and we choose not to interpret your comment as spam, so good luck to you and your site, and to the Dodgers, thought they had a well put-together ballclub.

Wandilicious

by rastronomicals on Jul 26, 2007 6:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Albers

The Albers comment isn't far off. No other Astros pitcher has his repertoire of 4 seam, 2 seam, curve and change. When they are all effective, as they have been occasionally recently, he can look dazzling. The biggest improvement I've seen is that he can command his 4 seamer and use it to get ahead in counts, leaving batters to wonder about that 2 seamer diving in on righties, the hard breaking curve, or a change that has looked real good recently. The kid has all the tools.

His recent success has to factor into the Jenning's dealings. TP can confidently conclude that at a minimum, Albers can fill out a spot currently occupied by either Jennings or Williams.

by jbm on Jul 26, 2007 9:00 AM CDT reply actions

Agree that..

Albers had great stuff last night. His FB reached 94/95, which seems to qualify as a power sinker. I don't know if it was the best stuff any Astro starter has exhibited this season (as Rastro suggested), but it was among the better outings. The key, though, was Albers' control. He was able to get ahead in the count...he has not always been able to do that. Hopefully the bullpen role pushed him into improving his control.

by clack on Jul 26, 2007 11:16 AM CDT reply actions

Honorable Mention

YAY! I CAN LOG IN AGAIN!!! Yeah, no brainer, less than half a game won't get you the GH, but it will get you the honorable mention.

by megaera on Jul 26, 2007 3:41 PM CDT reply actions

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