Matchup/Game Thread 2:05 CDT
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| Roy Oswalt | Josh Fogg |
| 6 - 4, 3.20 | 1 - 5, 4.53 |
| W/L | ERA | BAA | OPSa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 - 3 | 5.91 | .298 | .819 |
Nope. It's Roy Oswalt on the road this year.
Astounding.
Good news is that reports of our demise in Colorado are exaggerated; yes, we were swept in Denver last year, but if Roy can get a win under his belt today, it will mark the second Astros series victory at Colorado in the last three years.
The other day, when I was feeling so grouchy from this team that I actually changed my signature, I and StrosBro had engaged in something of an argument regarding Ensberg.
Partially due the the fact that I already consider the season something of a lost cause, and partly because of the power upside, I feel that Ensberg should play just about every day.
StrosBro--a noted champion of Loretta's--had taken issue with this, and especially took issue with the fact that I called Ensberg above average defensively.
I fired back, even going so far as to say the defensive stats were for the end of the year, but little did I know then that Michael Lichtman would soon release his Ultimate Zone Ratings inseason for the first time.
I guess defensive stats ARE for the middle of the year.
The list is sorted by total runs saved, arrived at by summing runnings saved through superior range, runs saved through fielding errors (or lack thereof) and runs saved through throwing errors (yadda yadda yadda).
| Name | Pos | Runs Saved (Range) |
Runs Saved (Fielding Errors) |
Runs Saved (Other Errors) |
Total Runs Saved |
G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Everett | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 36 |
| Jason Lane | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 |
| Craig Biggio | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 31 |
| Hunter Pence | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 |
| Jason Lane | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Lance Berkman | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| Chris Burke | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Loretta | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Loretta | 5 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Mark Loretta | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Orlando Palmeiro | 9 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 |
| Mike Lamb | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 |
| Luke Scott | 9 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 20 |
| Lance Berkman | 9 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 |
| Brad Ausmus | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| Carlos Lee | 7 | -3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 33 |
| Mark Loretta | 6 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 |
| Chris Burke | 8 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 11 |
| Mike Lamb | 5 | -2 | -2 | 0 | -4 | 15 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 5 | -2 | -3 | 0 | -5 | 23 |
Gosh, Ensberg takes quite a hit. Not only has he rated out worse than Loretta at third, he's rated worse than Lamb.
He's the most harmful defensive player on the field!
This is quite a development; if I had said that Ensberg is above average defensively, I did so because he has been. But it's obviously not just his hitting that has fallen off.
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Sometimes Numbers Lie
What hurts Ensberg's statistics is his range. He ranges far to his left (our right)and gets into awkward throwing positions or the ball careens off his glove. Lamb and Loretta do not have that range and thus don't into the high error potential situations. Ensberg is better than the other two on balls hit in the normal third base range and he is better charging to the plate and pitchers mound.
Note the second best fielder Astros have according to the list is Craig Biggio at second.
The runaway winner under virtually any formula is Adam Everett.
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 12:50 PM CDT
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I answered my own question
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 12:56 PM CDT
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That alone
by jbm on
Jun 7, 2007 12:53 PM CDT
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Check out my blog first before commenting
UZR has the same issues. Except with fielding stats, they are even less reliable than hitting stats.
Instead, look at the 2003-2007 data, rather than 2 months of 2007. Adam Everett is the best fielder in MLB over that time period. UZR loves this guy. Ensberg is also an above average 3B according to UZR, using 462 games. Biggio is a big minus in CF in that time period.
As for why Loretta appears multiple times, he played multiple positions.
I'd encourage you to download the data, made freely available, and look at the data yourself, rather then relying on someone giving up a snippet of two months.
by tangotiger on
Jun 7, 2007 1:07 PM CDT
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That'll Teach Me to Try and Promote Someone's Work
And don't attack someone who's doing you some PR.
That's common courtesy.
Sheesh.
by rastronomicals on
Jun 7, 2007 1:38 PM CDT
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Scouting Fans
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2006_HOU.html
by tangotiger on
Jun 7, 2007 1:08 PM CDT
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i don't know
i haven't had as many moments with Loretta at third where i've wondered if Ensberg would make a play that maybe he didn't as i've had with Mark playing short, but i also don't remember Loretta making many spectacular plays that might indicate to me that he's an above average defensive third baseman, like Mo does. i'm not being very scientific here, but i stand by my contention that Ensberg is still a substantial upgrade in the field over both his counterparts.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 1:48 PM CDT
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Small sample size
And exactly who is it that I "attacked" and how did I attack that person?
If a website shows that the 4th worst ERA in MLB in 2006 as of June 1st was Andy Pettite:
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2006/DL06012006.htm
(in 2005, he was 2nd best), would you tell that website to stop releasing the data so early?
I am simply cautioning against taking any conclusions based on 2 months of data in a vaccum.
by tangotiger on
Jun 7, 2007 1:56 PM CDT
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One Answer
2)
I'd encourage you to download the data, made freely available, and look at the data yourself, rather then relying on someone giving up a snippet of two months.
Your tone clearly suggests that someone who would look at only 2 months ("a snippet") rather than 4 years or whatever is guilty of shoddiness if not intellectual laziness. That is how you attacked me, despite the fact that I took no issues with the data. I looked at two months because two months is what we're talking about. Everyone's aware that Everett's a great shortstop, and that Ensberg has been a good third baseman. The point I was bringing up had to do with this year, when one of them may not have been playing to his personal history.
3) I have no issues with the two months, you do!
Or at least that's what I took from
No, it means he has 56 PA, and alot of things can happen in 56 PA. UZR has the same issues. Except with fielding stats, they are even less reliable than hitting stats.and the part about looking at all four years of data.
by rastronomicals on
Jun 7, 2007 2:51 PM CDT
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Tone
[/quote]
I'd caution you to be able to infer someone's tone from what he writes, and even more strongly state that it "clearly suggests" anything. While you can infer what you said, it's certainly not "clear". One can also infer that I was simply telling people to be cautious. Both sides need to give the benefit of the doubt.
Using 2 months of anything, without referring to the historical numbers, in order to make conclusions, is not appropriate. It'd be like me saying that Andy Pettite last year at this time should have been released because he sports one of the worst ERAs in the league.
UZR loves Everett, likes Ensberg, and doesn't care for Biggio.
by tangotiger on
Jun 7, 2007 3:21 PM CDT
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I saw this data...
by clack on
Jun 7, 2007 7:37 PM CDT
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littlevisigoth
I don't think anyone would disagree with you.
by tangotiger on
Jun 7, 2007 1:58 PM CDT
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On to the game
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:05 PM CDT
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Thanks
I agree with you on the Burke front. Maybe Gar was tired of looking at Jason's mug and decided to let someone else look at it instead.
Anyone doing PBP?
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 2:08 PM CDT
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PBP
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:12 PM CDT
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Lineups
Loretta, 2B
Pence, CF
Berkman, 1B
Lee, LF
Scott, RF
Ensberg, 3B
Everett, SS
Ausmus, C
Oswalt, P
Them
Taveras, CF
Matsui, 2B
Holliday, LF
Helton, 1B
Atkins, 3B
Hawpe, RF
Tulowitzki, SS
Iannetta, C
Fogg, P
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:11 PM CDT
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Anyone listening to the radio?
by matt s on
Jun 7, 2007 2:12 PM CDT
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Top 1st
Pence doubles over Willy's head
Berkman grounds out to first, Pence to third
Lee goes down swinging a full count, stranding Hunter at third
As the radio guys said, at least we got a baserunner in the first frame. how long has is been since we did that?
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:15 PM CDT
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Bottom 1st
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:17 PM CDT
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Matsui
Holliday just misses an oppo HR foul, but takes the next pitch to LF and stretches a single to a double and apparently just avoids a tag from Loretta on an in-time throw from Lee.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:19 PM CDT
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Helton
Atkins draws a five-pitch walk. bases loaded for Hawpe, with one out. not good.
Hawpe pops to Loretta. infield fly rule in effect. big out.
Tulowitzki grounds to Mo, who beats Helton to third for the FC.
seven Rockies bat, but only one touches home plate. Roy throws 24 pitches, only 13 for strikes. hopefully he settles in from here.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:28 PM CDT
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Holy Cow Bases Loaded
Thankfully, defensive phenom Morgan Ensberg handles the grounder for the third out.
Shaky start.
Now I must try to get some work done (with the game on in the background of course).
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 2:27 PM CDT
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Adam Everett
Game tied 1-1
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 2:35 PM CDT
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Top 2nd
Mo draws a four-pitch walk. Two on for Everett.
on a 1-2 count, a wild pitch advances both runners.
Everett rolls it to Atkins at third, slow enough to score Scott, and almost slow enough to get an infield hit. Mo also moves up on the bang-bang play. nice work to put it in play and get a run across.
Brad grounds to Matsui, who looks Mo back to third before throwing on to Helton.
Roy flies out to short right to end it, but not before the score is tied 1-1.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:39 PM CDT
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Bottom 2nd
Roy battles back from 3-0 to get the first K of the game on Ionnetta.
Fogg pops out to Lance in foul ground. good work to keep ducks off the pond for the power-hitting center fielder.
Willy grounds out to the mound. quick 1-2-3. hopefully more of that to come.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:48 PM CDT
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Lance.
Drives in Pence, who'd reached on an infield single.
3 - 1 Stros
by rastronomicals on
Jun 7, 2007 2:54 PM CDT
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Top 3rd
Is Lance back 2 run homer
by jano4 on
Jun 7, 2007 2:54 PM CDT
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Team Cycle
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 2:55 PM CDT
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Top 3rd
Pence sends Tulowitzki deep into the hole at short and beats the throw for yet another multi-hit game (somebody want to throw out the absurd stat?)
Berkman promptly launches a bomb to right! 3-1 good guys. maybe the recent success really does portend a bit of a turnaround for our struggling hero. (HR measured at 421 ft, btw)
Carlos misses a back to back jack by a matter of feet down the left field line. after a few more foul balls, he doubles to deep left center. some good solid contact this inning so far. let's keep it up Luke.
Scott triples into the gap in right center, scoring Lee. no throw from the cutoff man. Taveras playing him shaded to left for some reason. 4-1 Stros!
Mo hits it hard, but on the ground right to short. Luke can't score.
Everett flies to deep center.
Phil quipped that the goal line was 8 runs last night. well, after three we're half way there.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 2:58 PM CDT
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Bottom 3rd
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:00 PM CDT
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I'm willing
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:04 PM CDT
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Matsui
Holliday doubles to center, cut off well by Pence but the throw is just late of the runner
Helton K's looking and doesn't like the call (probably goes without saying)
Atkins grounds out to Mo to end the threat.
still 4-1 Astros.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:12 PM CDT
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In Fourth
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 3:11 PM CDT
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thanks
shame Pence couldn't come through there. never can have too many runs in this park.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:14 PM CDT
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Doesn' t it though
I saw the double past Ensberg in the bottom of the fourth - I can say for certain Ensberg was playing way off third and the ball went between him and third base for a double. The runner later came home to score but I cannot tell you who the runner was, nor exactly how he scored (there was a hit involved I know that).
4-2 Astros and inning is over.
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 3:23 PM CDT
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hahahaha
Dave shouted from the broadcaster's box down to him, "Hey buddy, you're bunting!"
That's too funny.
by pel on
Jun 7, 2007 3:20 PM CDT
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Bottom 4
Tulowitzki (how old is this guy, he looks about 12--does everyone look younger when you're getting older?) hits a double.
Iannetta (how the heck is this name pronounced?) singles, the kid on 2nd scores.
Fogg grounds out to Wee E. Two away.
Willy T up and out as he grounds out to Loretta.
Roy is at 67 pitches. We lead 4-2.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:21 PM CDT
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okay, i'm done
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:23 PM CDT
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Bottom 4th
Fogg sacs the runner to 2nd, before Willy grounds to Loretta to end it.
4-2 Stros.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:22 PM CDT
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Carlos Lee
Astros're scoring like crazy, thanks to hitting phenoms Everett and Ausmus
6-2 and inning continues
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 3:29 PM CDT
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To be honest
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:33 PM CDT
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stolen bases
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:39 PM CDT
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big 2-out double
hmm, Berkman coming around, Scott heating up, Pence and Lee maintaining, production from the bottom order guys... hopefully this isn't just an aberation and some of this can stick around for a little while.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:34 PM CDT
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It would be so sweet
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:39 PM CDT
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they've been lousy
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 3:42 PM CDT
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There's a new guy
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:51 PM CDT
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Top 5
Luke flies out to Willy.
Mo K's.
Wee E is at the plate and Caballo steals 2nd. Couple pitches later, E singles. Men on the corners for Ausmus.
And he doubles to center. Woot Woot. Wee E follows Caballo round the bases we get two more on the board.
Roy batting and Ks.
We lead 6-2.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:31 PM CDT
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Bottom 5
Holliday steps in and pops out to Lance.
Helton grounds out to Wee E.
That was easy work for our Roy.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:37 PM CDT
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Adam Everett;'s UZR rating
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 3:38 PM CDT
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As Berkman bats
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 3:45 PM CDT
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Thanks for the detail
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:49 PM CDT
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Top 6
Loretta grounds out to Matsui.
Hunter boy strikes out.
Berkman fouls a ball off and loses his bat in the process. He hops around a little but he's ok. On a 2-2 count, he checks his swing and the appeal goes to 3rd but the ump is scared of the growling Puma and says no way he went on that one. He walks.
Caballo pops up to Tuloyoungboy to end the inning.
We lead 6-2.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 3:48 PM CDT
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Bottom 6
Hawpe sends Hunter to the wall, a little too close to the wall.
Tuloyoungboy sends one to right and Luke goes back but no dice, that's gone.
Brownie says there's action in the bullpen. Roy is at 90 pitches.
Iannetta singles into right.
Spilborghs is batting for Julio and he k's.
Willy bunts, Mo fields and throws to Berkman but Willy is safe. That was awfully close.
Matsui lines to Everett.
And we escape relatively unscathed, at least still leading 6-4.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 4:00 PM CDT
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The Dreaded Bottom of the Seventh Inning
I hope Lidge pitches the Seventh.
Meanwhile this Sixth inning is getting sticky. Even the first out was hard hit (about 412 feet fly out to Pence in Center).
Phew - Adam Everett's UZR goes up another notch.
Two Rockies runs scored, but could have been a lot worse.
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 4:02 PM CDT
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Holiday, Helton, Atkins
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 4:06 PM CDT
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Top 7
Luke flies out to right.
Mo up and he grounds out to Tuloyoungboy.
Wee E drops a ball into left.
And Ausmus gets the third out with a fly ball to right.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 4:07 PM CDT
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Bottom 7
Instead, Holliday singles to center.
And now Roy leaves and Trever Miller trots out to the mound. I think he scares us fans more than opposing hitters...but I would love to be wrong.
Helton up and he flies out to Luke. Ok, I was wrong.
Trever gives way to Qualls...
Atkins in and he ks. Two away.
Hawpe up and singles to center. We had a shot at getting Holliday but he made it back.
1st and 2nd, C'mon Qualls.
Tuloyoungboy works the count 3-1 then grounds to Wee E who makes a great throw to Berkman.
We managed out of that one. Just.
Still 6-4
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 4:22 PM CDT
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Roy O has 105 pitches
I've got bad vibes.
First batter immediately singles - um um um.
Garner making a switch. That's good. Now who's coming in? Please be Brad Lidge.
Arghhhh- it's Trever Miller
First batter easy fly to right -- that's good
and Trever Miller is out. Chad Qualls in.
Strikes out Atkins - 2 outs - I took a quick breath, and smiled a little - just maybe we'll get out of it.
Single to center. Runners on first and second.
Tuklowitzki batting -- has has hot series -- 2 for 3 today -- a double and Home run -
This time grounds to Adam Everett for OUT THREE
I'd be happpy if they ended the game right here. We've gotten nine innigs of entertainment. Why play the last two innings.
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 4:24 PM CDT
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What I need..
by entropic soul on
Jun 7, 2007 4:30 PM CDT
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Top 8
Biggio batting for Qualls and he ks.
Loretta up and he walks.
Hunter up and he ks.
Berkman up. Wouldn't it be nice to see him get on here (obviously) and see Caballo step in, see what happens between the Panamanians? And as I finish typing, he lines out to Matsui. Should've kept my thoughts quiet.
We lead 6-4.
And I surrender my PBP duties. Volunteers?
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 4:35 PM CDT
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Biggio in that situation
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 4:38 PM CDT
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Wind whips up
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 4:39 PM CDT
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ESPN Showed it
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 8, 2007 2:20 PM CDT
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8th inning
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 4:41 PM CDT
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How many?
by entropic soul on
Jun 7, 2007 4:45 PM CDT
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missed it
Wheels is certain not to hit anybody trying to protect a two-run lead in the 9th. they've got to come to Houston later in the month. wonder if anything spills over then.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 4:53 PM CDT
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Barely touched
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 4:58 PM CDT
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Bottom 9th
c'mon Wheels, we need to hang on to this one!
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 4:56 PM CDT
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SHIT!
one on, no outs.
please, Danny. we've been talking about how you've been shaky, but haven't blown any saves. don't make us change our conversation.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 5:01 PM CDT
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Double-SHIT!!
C'MON WHEELS!!! STRIKE THIS MOFO OUT!!!
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 5:02 PM CDT
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and he walks Atkins
win or lose, Garner's going to field some questions about the closer role after this one.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 5:06 PM CDT
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Agreed
Game over. We lose.
Shite.
by callmenis on
Jun 7, 2007 5:11 PM CDT
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yeah
of the three relief innings, the guy out of the pen that's throwing the best right now pitched in the least critical inning.
SHIT, SHIT, SHIT, SHIT, SHIT!!!
what a crappy way to lose.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 5:15 PM CDT
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Carlos' baserunning lapse
With one out and Lee on first, ball hit to short, Second base mishandles the catch and has a hard time picking up the ball. Lee anticipated a clean catch and stopped running and started jogging off to center field to avoids the relay toss before he realized he had a chance to make second, but too late. Instead of two on, one out , it was one on and two out.
Adam Everett walked , but instead of bases loaded one out , it was two on two outs, and Ausmus stikes out to end the inning
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 4:57 PM CDT
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No, please no
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 5:00 PM CDT
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Lidge...
by blakemusn on
Jun 7, 2007 5:00 PM CDT
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Oh no
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 5:02 PM CDT
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Bases Loaded No Outs
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 5:06 PM CDT
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Tie Game One Out
Runners on the corners with one out.
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 5:10 PM CDT
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Blown Save
by rastronomicals on
Jun 7, 2007 5:12 PM CDT
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walk off single.
I'm sick to my stomach.
Ths is tough to take.
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 7, 2007 5:14 PM CDT
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Bring back Lidge
by jano4 on
Jun 7, 2007 5:15 PM CDT
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i know it's not justice
maybe i'm wrong. maybe Phil will surprise me and react with some desperation.
by littlevisigoth on
Jun 7, 2007 5:27 PM CDT
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Does it make much difference...
by clack on
Jun 7, 2007 7:45 PM CDT
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The 9th inning...
by clack on
Jun 7, 2007 7:50 PM CDT
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didn't Lee
by TimStros on
Jun 7, 2007 8:02 PM CDT
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SH*T, DAMN, F*#K
Sigh...Go Astros!
SeoulStro
by SeoulStro on
Jun 7, 2007 8:35 PM CDT
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What really makes it worse
by Stros Bro on
Jun 7, 2007 8:38 PM CDT
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Bungled baserunning top ninth
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 8, 2007 12:07 AM CDT
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Wheeler ....
On reflection, Wheeler did have some bad luck, and he wasn't giving up terribly hard hit balls. But he didn't have his strike out pitch working, and he got into situations where he needed a strikeout badly.
by clack on
Jun 8, 2007 7:55 AM CDT
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The Sun Rose This Morning
by Joe in Birmingham on
Jun 8, 2007 2:04 PM CDT
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