Berkman's Problems this year

by TimStros on May 4, 2007 4:56 PM CDT

I think Berkman is a sly guy eh?

"Berkman, who played almost exclusively in the outfield during his first four seasons in the big leagues, joked that his numbers are so bad this year because he's gunning to win Comeback Player of the Year honors next year.

"You have to plan these things two years ahead of time," he said. "

(this taken from astros.com)

Maybe he's not joking :)

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He looks slow

along with other things to me. I think he did not prepare himself for this season like he has in the past. And I know that is a pretty ugly statement but I have seen enough this season to feel comfortable to say that.

His bat is slow, his fielding has not been to snuff, and he looks mopey in general. People need to stop counting on him packing his usual 35HR and 120RBI in the rest of this season.... because it probably ain't coming.

Tisk tisk Lance. Shame on you.

Jennings 2001 PCL 131.2IP 9.91H/9 0.62HR/9 2.80BB/9 7.52K/9 1.41WHIP Hirsh 2006 PCL 137.1IP 6.16H/9 0.33HR/9 3.34BB/9 7.73K/9 1.06WHIP

by Shamus on May 4, 2007 6:19 PM CDT reply actions

You're Right About His Fielding

but back in ST, I remember hearing several comments about how much work he had put in, how he was, um, newly svelte.

Maybe that's the issue, and we need to bring back Fat Elvis.

But seriously folks . . . .

I'm not ready to give up on Berkman yet. Witness the long onbase streak he has going. He's hitting singles and walking, prodigiously, almost; I have to imagine the power will return.

Sympathy for Ken Johnson

by rastronomicals on May 4, 2007 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't give up too soon man

People need to stop counting on him packing his usual 35HR and 120RBI in the rest of this season.... because it probably ain't coming.

You don't think he'll turn around and get up there? I'd still be very surprised if he wasn't close to those numbers... give him time man.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on May 6, 2007 6:20 AM CDT up reply actions

Let's look at the Hardball Times' stats....

Berkman's pitches/plate appearance are higher than ever (4.1 vs. 4.0, 3.9, and 3.9 in 04, 05, 06). Patience is not a problem, then (is it possible that he becoming less aggressive, though?). His Batting Avg. on Balls in Play (BABIP) is good at .338, and pretty much in line with his usual BABIP. The good BABIP may eliminate the possibility that Berkman has just faced bad luck. That is not a good sign. His HR/flyball rate has plummeted (from the 16-24% range to 8%). That could be some bad luck, or it could be that he isn't hitting the flies as strongly as usual.

Now here is the disturbing part. His Line Drive percent is way down at 15%, compared to his usual 19%-22%. (That LD% is similar to Ensberg's LD% last season, though it is a bigger drop off for Berkman.) Berkman's groundball percent is way up at 52.1%. That compares to a GB% of 39% in 06 and a high of 45% in 05. This suggests to me that either Berkman is bothered by some unstated injury or that he has some mechanical problem in his swing. I don't know a lot about the mechanics of batting, so I will leave to some of you guys to comment on whether you have noticed any problems in his swing.

by clack on May 5, 2007 11:32 AM CDT reply actions

Yeah

I don't have any hitting-mechanics related thoughts either, but I wonder if he's just less aggressive at the plate with Lee behind him?

Just anecdotally, it seems like Lance is just happy to walk and hope Carlos will clean things up for him, and is swinging less often. Could we get any data on swings per plate appearance? I mean he's got 29 walks thus far, and that projects way ahead of his yearly average (162 on pace vs. 104 avg '01-'06).

by Kian on May 5, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

The numbers

by clack are an indication that he is not hitting the ball like he normally does. I think it is from slow batspeed.

I have seen him miss fastballs at a horrible rate(for Lance) this year. And it is crazy that it is hard for me to think about Lance not tattooing the ball. He normally hits the ball as hard as anyone.

Lance is a great hitter and will probably never hit less than .280 until he is 38, but his power is zapped from what I can see. He will still get hits because he can just see the ball so well but it wouldn't surprise me if Lance hits in the 18-22HR range this year. He's not even hitting doubles right now.

I don't blame anyone but Lance for this. He may have a slight injury or something like that but my thought is that he hasn't brought his A-game body into the season with him. And from my experience it is impossible to get in better shape while playing as the season goes along.

If he hasn't tweaked something so he can feel better, do not expect him to hit for power.... only avg.

Jennings 2001 PCL 131.2IP 9.91H/9 0.62HR/9 2.80BB/9 7.52K/9 1.41WHIP Hirsh 2006 PCL 137.1IP 6.16H/9 0.33HR/9 3.34BB/9 7.73K/9 1.06WHIP

by Shamus on May 5, 2007 5:08 PM CDT reply actions

ex.

Look at Todd Helton as an example last year. He had a bullcrap injury that totally destroyed his power last year. He still had a good season by avg standards but with no Helton-power.

The good news is that he was furious about the way he played last year, came into this season in the best shape of his life, and his OPS is 1042 right now as I write this.

Jennings 2001 PCL 131.2IP 9.91H/9 0.62HR/9 2.80BB/9 7.52K/9 1.41WHIP Hirsh 2006 PCL 137.1IP 6.16H/9 0.33HR/9 3.34BB/9 7.73K/9 1.06WHIP

by Shamus on May 5, 2007 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions

His SLG% is flatlined

Berkman seems to be seeing the ball just fine. His batting eye is there as the walks indicate. He has been getting a few more hits lately and his BA is coming up. He is just not driving the ball like he has in the past. Especially from the left side he used to show power to all fields. Where did that go? He needs to look at some tape or something. Those fastballs he is fouling off or hitting for ground ball singles need to be crushed. Being on pace for 80 RBIs is only a problem if you are an elite power hitter like Berkman. If he only drives in 80 this year the Astros are in bad shape.

Burford

by Burford on May 7, 2007 4:27 PM CDT reply actions

well

I think he showed tonight that he still has power to all fields batting lefty. That line drive homer into left field was a no doubter batting lefty.

by TimStros on May 8, 2007 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions

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