The new team

by Shamus on Dec 15, 2007 5:55 PM CST Comment 15 comments

CF Bourn
RF Pence
1B Berkman
LF Lee
SS Tejada
3B Wiggy
2B Matsui
C Towles

C Ausmus
IF Lorreta
IF Blum
OF Abercrombie/Cruz/Ramirez/FA
OF Abercrombie/Cruz/Ramirez/FA

SP Oswalt
SP Backe
SP Rodrigez
SP Sampson
SP Williams(maybe he retires)

CL Valverde
RP Brocail RP Villareal RP Borkowski
RP Geary RP McLemore RP Wright/Estrada/Paulino/FA

That OF bench is really weak. I wouldn't mind picking up Lane and my second choice would be Mench. They both will have to settle on bench roles this year. Man do I hate that rotation. As the team is now it is going to drive me crazy. I have said how I think that a well-pitched game is beautiful and looking at this I will only get one a week. Roy may win 25 games this year though. I am not kidding.

Suggestions/thoughts? What a crazy offseason

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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I think Paulino....

will be a starting pitcher...either the No. 5 guy or the "No. 6" guy in Round Rock. In order to trade Patton, I think the Astros must have concluded that Paulino can fulfill the role that Patton would have.

At this point, the Astros can't really afford a retirement by Woody Williams. After the trades, their starting pitcher depth is too thin. As I mentioned in another post, every team will use about 7 or 8 starters per season, and the Astros could need even more because of the uncertainty about Sampson's and Backe's health.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros sign another starting pitcher for the rotation, though the pickings are slim. Otherwise, I see the Astros perhaps stashing some Moehller-like pitchers in AAA to provide depth in case of injury.

I agree that the OF depth is shaky. In fact, the bench depth is shaky overall. There is no pure LHB off the bench. Very little power off the bench. I think the Astros could find a 4A minor league power hitter who could fill that role. Maybe a cheap veteran OFer or corner infielder. BBTF made an interesting comment to the effect: "the Astros are one injury away from Geoff Blum as the starting first baseman, and no contending team can be in that position."

by clack on Dec 15, 2007 6:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't Loretta

be the better choice to replace an injured Berkman?

Lee, Pence, Scott in '08

by entropic soul on Dec 15, 2007 6:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No..

that would have been Lamb ;) But yes, I see Loretta as the back up for the right side of the field and blum as the back up for the left.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Dec 15, 2007 7:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Depth Chart

Just looked at the Astros depth chart again...and surprisingly there is no back up shown for Berkman. In fact, the only two players without indicated back ups are Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman. Maybe the Astros are planning on playing Berkman and Lee every game. Actually, if Berkman were injured for a long time, I would be inclined to move Lee to 1st base and put a back up outfielder in LF. At least the team could get a defensive improvement to partially offset the loss of offense. In spring training, I would give Lee some reps at 1st base just in case. I don't expect the Astros to do it, though.

by clack on Dec 15, 2007 9:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Outfield is outfield.. most teams only carry 5 outfielders as it is... whoever makes the 4th and 5th outfielder spots is Lee's back up. Anyone can play first base, and Blum/Loretta are both the backups for Berkman.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Dec 16, 2007 8:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Explain to me again

the rationale behind signing Geoff Blum (and make it convincing).

Keeping Warm During Hot Stove Season

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 15, 2007 8:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Was there one

to begin with?

Lee, Pence, HGH in '08

by entropic soul on Dec 15, 2007 11:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of new members...

Found a couple of pics of Kaz Matsui at Minute Maid Park on his website.

Lee, Pence, HGH in '08

by entropic soul on Dec 15, 2007 11:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That #3 just looks weird...

with "Matsui" above it.

by TexSkins on Dec 16, 2007 12:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Looks natural to me

I've gone with flow of the wind so long I adjust quickly I guess.

Keeping Warm During Hot Stove Season

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 16, 2007 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oswalt wins 25?

I wouldn't be so confident in Oswalt winning 25. Remember, he is a contact, ground-ball pitcher. How many grounders to SS is Tejada going to miss that Everett would have gotten? This could be a problem for the Wizard of O.

by haymest on Dec 16, 2007 2:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Tejada's bat will win more

Games than his glove will cost the Astros. The difference between Everett and Tejada is probably 5-8 games.

It's the next generation of Astros. Let's see if they can play like the men they are replacing.

by TBurford on Dec 16, 2007 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So is your opinion...

At least one writer from The Hardball Times gauges the difference to be a whopping ONE game. Maybe. I hope you are right, but I don't think you are. People keep talking about how his defense sucks lately.. Obviously I haven't really seen him play. His Probablistic Model of Range puts him a decent bit below average and below that of Mark Loretta. I'm going to go check his other defensive stats... Maybe I'll come back with some good news.

Lee, Pence, HGH in '08

by entropic soul on Dec 16, 2007 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Some defensive stats

Comparing Tejada and Loretta:

PMR: 97.20 .. Another below average defensive score. Mark Loretta scores higher here with a slightly below average 99.28. (100.0 is average, by the way)

Revised Zone Rating: .830
He compares well to qualified American League Shortstops (second) but compare him to National Leageu Shortstops and he falls to the middle of the pack. Much better than Mark Loretta in this catagory who has a .776 RZR.

Fielding Percentage: .971
Middle of the pack among qualified Shortstops. Mark Loretta's was .975 Mark Loretta wins this one.

Range Factor: 4.27
A bit on the lower end of the spectrum for qualified shortstops. Mark Loretta: 4.38. Mark Loretta wins this one too.

Over at On Baseball and the Reds, he has this stat which shows the number of runs a fielder saves with his defense. Tejada was +4.8. Ah, finally a good ranking. He actually saved a few runs on defense. Mark Loretta -5.7. Difference: 10 runs.

I'll take a look at some more when I have time.

Lee, Pence, HGH in '08

by entropic soul on Dec 16, 2007 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tejada Defense....

I think RZR can understate or overstate the defense of certain players, particularly at positions like CF and SS. This year Hardball Times removed "out of zone plays" (OOZ) from the Zone Rating, which is one reason it is called "revised" zone rating. The reason they removed it is that there is no agreement on how to correctly incorporate OOZ into the zone rating, and they felt the best thing is to show OOZ separately. OOZ plays normally are more difficult fielding plays and should carry more weight than in-zone plays. Tejada doesn't rank as well in OOZ plays (though it requires some speculation because he is injured for part of last season), and has shown reduced OOZ plays subsequent to a rather good defensive years in 2004/2005. Tejada OOZ plays by season: 2004 93; 2005 74; 2006 44; 2007 48. One might add 10 or so OOZ plays to account for his injury in 07, if you like.

PMR does not have the OOZ issue, because it does not use zones for each position. I like the PMR methodology better.

The Fans Scouting Report rates Tejada as almost exactly "average." The Chone 08 defensive forecast projects Tejada at 0 runs, which means he is exactly average.

by clack on Dec 16, 2007 4:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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