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by rastronomicals on Dec 13, 2006 9:11 AM CST in Events

I must be missing something about Hirsh. While his minor league numbers are good, they don't scream superstar. Maybe the Rockies really like his low home run rate. But his K and BB rates are good, not great.
If the Astros can sign Jennings long term, I think it's a fair trade for both teams.

Ken Rosenthal at CBS Sportsline

In a trade that sparked immediate criticism from rival executives, the Astros parted with three players Tuesday -- including top pitching prospect Jason Hirsh -- to acquire right-hander Jason Jennings from the Rockies.
The Astros exchanged Hirsh, right-hander Taylor Buchholz and center fielder Willy Taveras for Jennings and right-hander Miguel Asencio -- a steep price, considering that Jennings is a free agent after this season.
"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.

Scott Miller at Fox

They need to make their plans before Pettitte, Clemens, Beltran or anybody else does it for them. In acquiring Jennings, a serviceable right-hander who was 9-13 with a 3.78 ERA for Colorado last season, they take a step in that direction. The big concern, though, is Jennings is free-agent eligible following the 2007 season, and Hirsh, Buchholz and Taveras will be a steep price to pay if the Astros don't keep Jennings.

Mark Donohue at Bad Altitude, a Rockies Blog

Jennings had a VORP of 50.8 last year, the highest on the Rockies' pitching staff and indeed one of the highest in the majors. A lot of his value comes from the high number of innings he will log, but don't believe all these dismissive reports about his being "only" a third or fourth starter.
Which rotations are these that have three better starters than Jason Jennings? The Rockies are going to have a very difficult time replacing Jennings. Jason Hirsh is a big-deal prospect, but he's not going to be a 50 VORP player in his first full year in the bigs. Besides, there is absolutely no telling whether Hirsh will be one of the multitude of pitchers who simply can't make the adjustment to Coors Field. Buchholz, whose best pitch is his curve, is an even likelier candidate for Mike Hampton syndrome.

Most conversation that I can see this morning is focused on an extension for Jennings, who can walk after 2007 as it stands right now. In their story yesterday, Purple Row had said that they were "expecting that the Astros must have a contract extension already mostly finished."

Now the official site tells us that, well, "'the Astros hadn't discussed an extension with Jennings yet, and Jennings said he hadn't thought about his contract since hearing the news that he'd been traded."

Excuse me, but isn't that, I dunno, negligent? Isn't that kind of bush?

We paid way too much for Jennings, but never mind that. If this deal has any hope of ever appearing on the positive side of the ledger for the Astros, Jason Jennings has got to be good, and good for many years. Jennings needs to be an Astro in 2007, and well beyond. Right now, we have no insurance. Right now, Jennings could have a nice year in '07--and then Astros fans could watch a gleeful JJ play the sure-to-be-absurd '08 free agent pitching market and a) fleece us or b) walk.

Because he's from Baylor means he wouldn't leave Houston?

C'mon.

Everyone is assuming an extension's been done, but T-Purp tells us it hasn't even been discussed. Either I'm way off base here, or something is very, very wrong.

I'm not one of those who feels that Purpura is just a puppet. Sure, McLane makes all the big calls, Clemens/Bagwell type stuff, but I've gotta believe that Tim orchestrates everything else. And to call a major league GM "stupid" is laughable; you know these guys are sharp.

But I think we as Astrofans need some explanation.

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If Jennings walks

after this year, then unless the Astros win the World Series, this trade is a bust for the Astros. I have to think that the Astros intend on talking extensions with Jennings before next season starts.

If Jennings signs an extension, then this isn't a bad deal for the Astros. You can't expect to trade for a legit starting pitcher and give up nothing for it.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Dec 13, 2006 10:05 AM CST 0 recs

By The Way

A final list of non-tendered free agents courtesy of Talking Chop blogger Joe Hamrahi and Baseball Digest Online.

Marcus Giles is the biggest name, and is reasonably priced, but I don't see a fit.

Is Victor Zambrano healthy? He doesn't make a ton of money either, and I remember watching him with the D-Rays and he could be nasty--when he wasn't walking guys.

by rastronomicals on Dec 13, 2006 10:30 AM CST 0 recs

Astros Connections to Baylor...

Drayton is on the Board at Baylor. Does this seem odd? He watched this guy pitch for his alma mater and he wants the dominant pitcher he saw in college. Only time will tell whether Jennings is worth the price we paid, but something still seems funny. All reports said we could have recieved Jon Garland for those players. Why Jennings, not Garland?

by ABostonAstrosFan on Dec 13, 2006 11:01 AM CST 0 recs

If you look

at Jennings stats compared to Garland(which I conveniently posted about yesterday), they are pretty comparable. You could even make a case that Jennings is the better pitcher out of the two. If the White Sox were going to take that same deal for Garland, I think they would have done it last week during the winter meetings. I'm thinking they were asking to get Wheeler in the deal which would have been a deal breaker.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Dec 13, 2006 1:11 PM CST up 0 recs

also

i heard on the radio this morning that the White Sox had upped their asking price to four players (that's 4 for 1, rather than 3 for 2... with less money in the contract). i don't think comparing Garland to Jennings is really going to help the "we should have gotten Garland" argument, given the context of the cost monetarily and player-wise.

by littlevisigoth on Dec 13, 2006 1:17 PM CST up 0 recs

doesn't Garland make about

7 million more a year than Jennings? Not sure if thats correct but I thought I read that somewhere.

by TimStros on Dec 13, 2006 12:07 PM CST 0 recs

Garland

$12 million in 2007, $10 million in 2008

by Kian on Dec 13, 2006 12:11 PM CST up 0 recs

ok so..

your talking 22 mil for the next 2 years but you are guaranteed 2 years for Garland. For Jennings your talking about 4.5 for one year and assuming he has a good year and you want to keep him you may have to pay what 9 mil for the 2nd year(which is probably a huge overestimation but still). So your talking 13.5 for 2 years as opposed to 22 mil for 2 years. Yah there are alot of things that have to happen in the astros favor for the 13.5 to take place but still. Thats probably one of the things that the astros were thinking about. Hopefully they will sign an extension now w/out really knowing how the season will go, give Jennings a raise up to about 6 mil a year or so and give him a 4 year contract or something along those lines. now your talking 24 mil for 4 years instead of 22 for 2. That doesn't sound so bad.

by TimStros on Dec 13, 2006 12:29 PM CST up 0 recs

that's $5.5 million for 2007

and don't think that you'll resign him for anything in the range of $6 million for any upcoming season.

let me throw out some numbers for comparison:

Meche - 5.029 yrs service, 5yrs/$55 mil ($11 mil per)
Lilly - 5.102 yrs service, 4yrs/$40 mil ($10 mil per)
Eaton - 5.125 yrs service, 3yrs/$24.51 mil ($8.17 mil per)
Marquis - 5.012 yrs service, 3yrs/$21 mil ($7 mil per)
Jennings - 4.039 yrs service, ??/?? (?? per)

here are some more:

Meche - career ERA: 4.65, 2006 ERA: 4.48
Lilly - career ERA: 4.60, 2006 ERA: 4.31
Eaton - career ERA: 4.40, 2006 ERA: 5.12
Marquis - career ERA: 4.55, 2006 ERA: 6.02
Jennings - career ERA: 4.74, 2006 ERA: 3.78

i'd say getting him for 3-4 yrs at an average of $8-9 mil would be a deal at this point.

by littlevisigoth on Dec 13, 2006 1:14 PM CST up 0 recs

I doubt

the Astros will be able to lock Jennings up for 6 million a year over 4 years... I'm thinking the numbers will probably be closer to 10 million a year over 4 years. The Astros #3 pitcher is making just over 6 per year, so you'd have to think the #2 would get a raise over that at least.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Dec 13, 2006 1:15 PM CST up 0 recs

yah thats true,

I was thinking his current contract was 4.5 not 5.5 which is what I based my numbers upon. I'd say probably 8 based upon that but who knows. I still think it's a better deal than what we would have to pay for Garland. I mean Garland isn't going to get paid less in his next contract than he makes now so..

by TimStros on Dec 13, 2006 1:51 PM CST up 0 recs

I'm afraid Pupura is mostly a puppet...

because I have some info from the "inside" that NO ONE (player, coach, GM, ticket taker, sweeper [OK, I made up those last two]) disagrees with Drayton and stays on board - PERIOD!

That explains quite a bit - the demises of Alan Ashby and Larry Dierker, who even made their disagreements somewhat public, Gerry Hunsicker, and apparently also the dismissal of Jim Hickey. Not to mention Billy Wagner and Moises Alou....

by bwhite2323 on Dec 14, 2006 11:48 AM CST 0 recs

McLane and Jennings

Drayton just may allow Tim P to sign JJ for a long term contract if he does reasonably well by the all star break. By my estimation, the Astros will have about $75 million committed for players and therefore will have approximately $15-20 million to spend on free agents in 2008. They can easily sign Jennings for $10-12 million and still have enough money to get a front line catcher like Barrett, Lo Duca, Jose Molina, Kendall, etc. who are potential free agents in 2008.

by Rita on Dec 16, 2006 10:51 AM CST 0 recs

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